ELECTIONS UPDATE: NOBOA COMING ON STRONG, CORREA

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 002436

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2016
TAGS: KDEM PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS UPDATE: NOBOA COMING ON STRONG, CORREA
STILL RISING


Classified By: PolOff Erik Martini for reasons 1.4 (B&D)


1. (C) Summary: A recent bump in unpublished national
polling raises the possibility that banana magnate Alvaro
Noboa could squeak past Leon Roldos into the second round
runoff for president. Meanwhile, radical front-runner Rafael
Correa continues to climb, getting closer to the 40%
threshold for an outright victory in the first round. It is
important to note, however, that polls have historically been
unreliable at predicting the first round of presidential
elections. A September 29 OAS EOM pre-electoral report urged
candidates to reduce unhelpful mudslinging and encouraged
tolerance between political parties in support of democratic
principles. OAS EOM Chief Rafael Bielsa also rejected
electoral fraud claims, stating that the EOM had no evidence
of significant electoral wrongdoing. An October 1 quick
count simulation was held by electoral authorities, revealing
some weaknesses that can be corrected before election day.
The Constitutional Tribunal is reportedly considering whether
the proportional representation scheme electoral vote
counting method approved by Congress this year is
unconstitutional. We believe the Court will uphold the
method; a negative decision by the court could delay the
elections. End Summary.

Noboa Bounces, Correa Continues Climbing
--------------


2. (SBU) Poll information may not be published in the media
until after election day, October 15th. Pollsters continue
to poll, however, and the Embassy has obtained recent polls
showing that Rafael Correa continues to rise, albeit more
gradually, and a significant recent jump in support for
Noboa. PSC candidate Cynthia Viteri continues to fall, while
Leon Roldos' support is holding relatively steady. Current
poll results (Cedatos, Market, Informe Confidencial,
respectively) with a 3% margin of error:

-- Rafael Correa (29.2%, 26%, 27%)
-- Leon Roldos (16.9%, 22%, 17%)
-- Alvaro Noboa (14.6%, 12%, 16%)
-- Cynthia Viteri (9.6%, 12%, 9%)
-- Null Votes (15.2%, n/a, 16%)
-- Undecided Voters (40.5, n/a, n/a)


3. (SBU) Two leading polling firms believe Correa's support
among the electorate would currently convert to 35% of valid
votes, just 5 points shy of the 40% and more than 10 points
ahead of the next contender, as required for a first round
victory. (Note: Null and blank votes are subtracted to
calculate the valid vote denominator).

Historically, Polls Fail to Predict First Round
-------------- --


4. (U) It is important to note that polls have not proven
reliable predictors of first round results in recent history.
In the first round of presidential elections of 2002, for
example, polling firms put the six top contenders all within
a statistical tie on the eve of elections; undecided voters
were between 35-40%. Lucio Gutierrez won the first round
comfortably by leaping from third place in the polls to
frontrunner status at the polls. Conventional wisdom from
Gutierrez's 2002 upset is that the polling firms did not take
into account the rural voters in the first round, and the
major polling firms claim to have corrected this bias.


5. (U) But polling firms have rarely been able to predict
the top two finishers in the first round in Ecuador. In
1996, Jaime Nebot led runner-up Freddy Ehlers by 2 to 1
before the first round; yet Abdala Bucaram ended up beating
Nebot in the second round. In 1998, Alvaro Noboa polled in
fourth place before the first round yet jumped into second to
make the runoff against Jamil Mahuad. In contrast, pollsters
are much better at predicting a winner in the second round.
For example, Gutierrez' comfortable second round victory over
Noboa in the second round in 2002 was accurately predicted by
most polling firms. Since the return to democracy in 1978
the winner of the first round went on to win the presidency
in five of seven elections.

Correa Edging Toward First Round Victory
--------------


6. (SBU) Despite his continued rise in the polls, few
outside the Correa campaign predict an outright first round
win for Correa. No presidential candidate has ever exceeded
35% in the first round in the past 27 years of democracy.
Correa is now within five points of that hurdle, which also
requires a ten-point advantage over the second place
finisher. On related issues, a September 16 Informe
Confidencial poll shows 65% of voters say they would vote for
a candidate that would convene a constituent assembly. The
same poll shows voters do not care much about instability
(less than 2%),which Correa's detractors are trying to use
against him. Voters are much more concerned about corruption
(25%),unemployment (22%),the state of the economy (17%) and
bad governance (13%). A September 23 Informe Confidencial
poll shows Correa beating Roldos in a second round, by 44 to
39%. An October 2 Cedatos poll shows Correa beating Roldos
(43-33),Noboa (48-24) or Viteri (50-21) in the second round.

OAS Cautions Against Unfounded Fraud Allegations
-------------- ---


7. (SBU) OAS Chief of Elections Observation Mission Rafael
Bielsa on September 29 released the Mission's first
pre-electoral report, expressing concern over increased
exchanges of unfounded allegations and insults by candidates.
The report calls for political parties and movements to
create a more constructive electoral environment based on
tolerance and respect for democratic values. To increase
public confidence in the election process, Bielsa recommended
improving communication between the TSE and social and
political actors; increasing electoral training; ensuring the
presence of electoral observation officials at the voting
tables; enhancing quick count planning; strengthening
provincial electoral tribunals; and disseminating voting
machines use guidance.


8. (SBU) The OAS report notes that the EOM received official
complaints from two presidential candidates (Correa and PRE
candidate Fernando Rosero) and that an investigation of the
allegations was underway. Correa and Rosero have publicly
questioned Minister of Defense Marcelo Delgado's relationship
with Leon Febres Cordero and suggested that he may be
conspiring to conduct electoral fraud. (Note: The Ecuadorian
military is responsible for delivering and transporting
ballots to central election authorities on election day.)
Bielsa has publicly stated that the EOM has no evidence of
planned electoral fraud.

Church Calls for Responsible Vote
--------------


9. (U) Antonio Arregui, the President of the Catholic
Church's governing Episcopal Conference, publicly joined
other civil society groups calling for "a responsible vote".
The Church would order its parish priests to make
pre-electoral commentaries, telling parishioners nationwide
"if we continue voting without conscience, the country will
not pull out of its economic and political crisis." The
statement was interpreted as a criticism of Correa's
platform. Correa responded by calling himself a practicing
Catholic, opposing abortion, and highlighting his service as
a Catholic mission worker for a year in an indigenous village.

Court Case Adds Electoral Uncertainty
--------------


10. (U) Congressman Rafael Davila's (UDC) complaint filed
with the Constitutional Court challenges the
constitutionality of the method chosen by Congress to
apportion plurinomal seats (in Congress, the Andean
Parliament, and provincial and municipal councils) Ecuador's
Organic Elections Law on April 26, 2006. The reform
institutes a proportional representation system slightly
different from the method used in 2004, permitting voting by
individual candidate or by party list, per the constitution.
Davila maintains that the reform violates Article 99 of the
Ecuadorian Constitution which states that "citizens have the
right to select candidates of their preference, of one list
or between lists...with proportional representation for
minority parties." Going further, he claims that voting by
party list violates the will of the people, expressed in a
1997 referendum. Acknowledging concerns that an eleventh
hour change in the vote count method could delay elections,
Davila has publicly suggested the Court defer ruling on his

concerns until after the October 15 election.


11. (U) Congress approved on April 26 a weighted method of
apportioning these seats by proportional representation
(called "ponderado" in Spanish),developed by Ecuadorian
mathematician German Rojas of the National Polytechnic
School. Davila maintains that the system's requirement to
convert all votes into party list votes creates a de facto
list-only system that favors the larger political parties.
Fifty-seven congress members voted in favor of the reforms,
including both major parties. Since these parties have great
influence over the Court, few expect a ruling striking the
law down. If it were struck down, however, the Congress
would be forced to act quickly to replace it, or the
elections would have to be postponed.

Quick Count Simulation Disappoints
--------------


12. (SBU) The TSE on October 1 held a simulation to test the
vote transmission system. OAS sources tell us the simulation
failed to meet expectations, largely due to limited advance
planning. The OAS expects that the TSE will be able to
resolve the problems discovered prior to October 15.
Meanwhile, Congress members have criticized the TSE's
decision to hire Brazilian firm E-Vote to conduct the quick
count. Several have questioned E-Vote's record in Brazil and
expressed concern over how quickly the results will be
transmitted. TSE officials and E-Vote held a press
conference on October 3 to assure the public that the quick
count would be efficient and accurate. E-Vote representative
Santiago Murray said E-Vote had taken steps to ensure speedy
transmission, including securing and configuring computer
systems, training voting booth workers, and securing
telephone lines for the transmission of vote results.

Palacio's Referendum Closer to Realization
--------------


13. (U) President Palacio on September 24 issued Executive
Decree 1871, calling for a non-binding popular referendum in
the second round of the presidential elections. The Supreme
Electoral Tribunal's Judicial Commission on October 3 issued
a favorable report to the TSE board for final approval. The
three questions are:

-- Education: Voters would be asked if they support universal
preschool from ages zero to five years and required schooling
from first to twelfth grade; an increase in high school
matriculation rates to a minimum of 75%; an eradication of
illiteracy; improved adult education; improved school
infrastructure and equipment; implementation of a national
student evaluation system; permanent training programs for
teachers; improved working conditions and quality of life for
teachers; and increased education funding from 0.5% of the
GDP to 6% by 2012.

--Health: Voters would be asked if they support a universal
healthcare insurance program; increased healthcare funding
from 0.5% through 2012 or until 4% of the GDP is achieved;
and that Congress should act on the health proposals within
the first five months of the new session.

-- Social Investment: Voters would be asked if they agree
with the principle of earmarking extra oil revenue for social
investment and economic development activities, and that
Congress should act on the proposal within the fist five
months of the new session.

First-time Overseas Voting Another Concern
--------------


14. (C) Vice-ForMin Ribadaneira confided to the DCM that the
Ministry is concerned about the logistical challenges of
managing overseas voters at its consulates, a new experience
for the country. Spain is the focal point, with a new
generation of immigrants still closely linked to their home
communities and more likely to vote. He noted that at even a
small consulate like Murcia, they have registered 30,000
voters. In a close election, management of these ballots
could strain the system and become an issue.

Comment
--------------



15. (C) If there is any certainty in Ecuadorian politics it
is unpredictability of results, and this election cycle is no
exception. An unfavorable Court ruling is not expected, but
could throw the date of the election in doubt. Correa
continues his rise in the polls, but anything can happen in
the final weeks and days before the election. Noboa's late
bounce should not come as a surprise--Noboa has spent the
most of any candidate in recent days and as an outsider
candidate appeals to the poorest voters with paternalistic
promises of change. He has wide name recognition and an
organized party base in rural areas, especially along the
vote-rich coastal region. Amidst this uncertainty, the OAS
mission is struggling to increase the credibility of the
electoral process and fend off unsubstantiated charges of
fraud. We will continue to support the OAS throughout the
process.
JEWELL