PRE-ELECTION REPORT: PICHINCHA PROVINCE LEANS LEFT

UNCLAS QUITO 002435 SIPDIS SIPDIS PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KDEM PGOV EC SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION REPORT: PICHINCHA PROVINCE LEANS LEFT ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Populous highlands Pichincha province, where Ecuador's capital of Quito is located, is second only to Guayas province in terms of registered voters. In a historical rarity, none of the current leading presidential candidates hail from the province or the highlands region. According to the latest polls, both leftist presidential candidates Rafael Correa (Alianza PAIS) and Leon Roldos (RED-ID) are popular here, where the Democratic Left Party (ID) enjoys local dominance. Alvaro Noboa follows with 11%, and Cynthia Viteri trails with just 7% support. Outside the capital, voters resent being overlooked in the province-wide race for congress, which is expected to return the ID to at least six of 14 seats. One fast-growing municipality, Santo Domingo de los Colorados, has demanded a referendum on whether to break away from Pichincha to demand its own province. End Summary. Provincial Background and Electoral History -------------- ¶2. (U) Pichincha, home to Ecuador's capital of Quito, is Ecuador's second-largest province with 19% of the country's voters (only Guayas province is larger, with 25%). The Democratic Left Party (ID) has dominated Pichincha in the recent past, and currently controls the prefecture (U.S. governor-equivalent, won in 2004 by Ramiro Gonzalez, now VP candidate under Roldos, with 47%),the Quito mayoralty (won in 2004 by Paco Moncayo),the majority of the Quito municipal (9 of 15 seats) council and a majority of the provincial council (7 of 12). ID presidential candidate Rodrigo Borja won the first round of presidential elections in 2002 with 30% support, followed by Lucio Gutierrez (23%),Leon Roldos (17%) and Alvaro Noboa (11%). Gutierrez went on to beat Noboa 74% to 26% in Pichincha in the second round. The ID won six of Pichincha's 14 Congress seats; no other party won more than one seat apiece with the exception of the Patriotic Society-Pachakutik alliance, which won two but subsequently split apart. Electoral Authorities Sanguine -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Alvaro Paez, president of the Pichincha Electoral Council, told PolChief he did not expect electoral fraud or problems administering elections on October 15. Pichincha had not suffered from the irregularities often found in the coastal region, he said. Cooperation between the provincial and national election authorities was good, made easier by proximity. Paez rejected claims by several presidential of planned electoral fraud leveled against the Defense Minister (a PSC ally) as politically-motivated and without any proven basis. The military is not in a position to change voting results during the transportation of the ballots, since the election results are made public at the voting table, and also transmitted electronically to the central election authorities. If ballots went missing, it would be obvious at the tabulation centers in the capital. Presidential Sweepstakes -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Cedatos' poll of October 2 puts undecided voters in the highlands region (including Pichincha) at 41%. Among decided voters, Correa leads with 38%, followed by Roldos with 22%, Alvaro Noboa (PRIAN) with 11%, Cynthia Viteri (PSC) at 7% and Gilmar Gutierrez (PSP) at 5%. Among the undecided, 24% were inclined to nullify their vote, 17% were inclined toward Correa, 16% toward Roldos, followed by 8% inclining toward Noboa. Asked who they would vote for if elections were held on October 2, 30% of respondents (decided and undecided) sided with Correa, followed by 20% for Roldos, 19% would vote null, and 10% would vote for Noboa. ¶5. (SBU) Juan Velez, the ID campaign manager in Pichincha, worried in a recent conversation with PolChief about the possibility of there not being a second round. He blamed Roldos for being overconfident, and the traditionally high number of null and blank votes, as benefiting Correa. Correa had benefited by attacking LFC, but Roldos could not do the same, since he is depending on PSC support in the second round, if it comes. Instead, he will change his campaign style, seeking to "get closer" to poorer voters. Viteri's national campaign manager, Rene Santos, said Viteri and Noboa have a mutual support agreement, in the event either one makes the second round. Santos claimed strong rural support for Viteri would boost her into a second round against Correa. Viteri has recently changed campaign advisors and focused on her base in the Coast, leaving the Sierra to her running-mate Ernesto Davalos (whose family comes from the south-central highlands). Santos admitted that the PSC would have to support Roldos against Correa in the second round, if Viteri does not make it. Congressional Race -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The Congressional ballot in Pichincha is more notable for its length than for the quality of the candidates. Eighteen parties or movements have entered candidates for each of the 14 openings, resulting in a total of 252 choices for voters to select from. Only a handful of these individual candidates are well known to voters, with the strongest concentration in the Democratic Left Party list. Wilma Andrade, the Vice Mayor and Quito City Council member, leads that list, for reasons of gender equity and party balance between contending party leaders. Andres Paez, one of those leaders, is running for re-election and is second on the ID list, but first in popularity. Ex-president Lucio Gutierrez' wife, Ximena Bohorquez heads the Patriotic Society Party list. Gutierrez' notorious head of the Secretariat of Social Welfare, Bolivar Gonzalez, heads the SIPDIS list for Abdala Bucaram's Roldosista Party. The Socialist Party, running candidates in alliance with Rafael Correa's PAIS Movement, is likely to win at least one seat, for Rafael Quintero. The PRIAN list is headed by Frederico Perez Intriago, brother of a former Quito mayor (and one-time Palacio nominee as Ambassador to the U.S.). ¶7. (SBU) Carlos Larreategui, president of the re-shuffled Christian Democratic Union (UDC, formerly DP),is also heading his party list for Pichincha deputy. In a recent discussion with PolChief Larreategui predicted the UDC would win up to eight congressional deputies nationwide, including one or two from Pichincha, two in Manabi, and one in Bolivar. The UDC supports stability, development, openness to trade, and is committed to internal democracy. The party plans to hold internal primaries for presidential candidates in 2010, and is currently receiving technical assistance from NDI and IRI. Larreategui worried about Correa's rise and prospects for governance/stability under next government. Correa's constituent assembly plans are unrealistic and would provoke constitutional crisis with Congress. Larreategui claimed credit for the story of Correa's visit to Chavez' family home in Venezuela (due to coincidental meetings at airports, which he spilled to the press). Larreategui predicted that the PSC and other right-wing parties would back Roldos. He agreed that in this circumstance, Roldos was likely to move left somewhat to poach Correa's base. Local Races and Issues -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Quito voters will elect seven of 15 Municipal Councilors and Pichincha voters will elect five of 12 provincial councilors. During a recent visit to the outlying municipality of Santo Domingo de los Colorados--the province's second-largest city--political, civil society and electoral authorities described the local dynamics behind the PSC mayor's call for a local referendum on making the municipality (with a growing population of 300,000) a separate province. Pichincha electoral authorities conceded to the local demand after a municipal strike was held on September 18. Pichincha electoral tribunal president Alvaro Paez said the referendum would be symbolic and non-binding, and would be postponed until after the elections. No party was opposed, but Santo Domingo was still a long way from becoming a province, after ten years trying. ¶9. (SBU) Our contacts in Santo Domingo complained about the lack of attention from congressional candidates (who must seek votes from the entire province of Pichincha),but said the major presidential candidates had all visited. They described a generation divide between young, native-born Santo Domingans, encouraged by Ramiro Gonzalez in Quito, and the older generation of political leaders who still control provincial politics. Perhaps as a result, Roldos and Correa were the favorites, and Viteri and Noboa also had a presence. Viteri's chances were hurt by corruption associated with the PSC mayor of Santo Domingo, according to critics. Comment -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The most recent polling shows Pichincha inclined toward Correa and Roldos for president, with Noboa trailing in third place. Correa benefits from Pichincha's demographics, which are more heavily urban and middle class than elsewhere in the country, which favors the revolutionary changes he espouses. Viteri is notably weak in the capital and the surrounding region. Viteri's running-mate, businessman Ernesto Davalos, was chosen to provide geographic balance to the ticket but has failed to muster much support in the central highlands, including Pichincha. ¶11. (SBU) In the congressional races, the ID should have no trouble maintaining its dominance of the Pichincha congressional delegation, with a smattering of other parties winning through proportional representation. Anything less than six seats would be considered an embarrassing loss for the ID, according to the ID campaign manager. JEWELL