BIELSA PESSIMISTIC ON ECUADORIAN ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 002404

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC IO KDEM
SUBJECT: BIELSA PESSIMISTIC ON ECUADORIAN ELECTIONS

Classified By: PolOff Erik Martini for reasons 1.4 (B&D)


1. (C) Summary: At Ambassador Jewell's breakfast meeting
with major donors and supporters of the election observation
effort, OAS Election Observation Mission to Ecuador Chief,
Rafael Bielsa, outlined his concerns with upcoming
presidential elections. Candidates and the media seem to be
planting the idea in the public that fraud is inevitable.
While GOE preparation is proceeding well, there are some
weaknesses that could fuel fraud speculation. Bielsa has
concluded that substantial post-electoral controversy is
possible. End Summary.

Background
--------------


2. (SBU) Ambassador Jewell convened a breakfast with
international donors and players to discuss OAS election
monitoring plans. In attendance were: OAS Chief of Election
Observation Mission Rafael Bielsa and selected OAS staff;
Ambassadors to Ecuador of Spain and Switzerland;
representatives from the Embassies of Canada, Germany, Chile,
and the Netherlands; and resident representatives of the UN,
World Bank, IMF,and Interamerican Development Bank. In a two
hour discussion, participants listened to Bielsa's
observations and exchanged views.

Bielsa Outlines His Worries
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3. (C) Bielsa expressed genuine worry over upcoming
Ecuadorian elections on October 15. He did not believe that
electoral fraud would be widespread or systematic, but could
be just enough to give the losers in a close presidential
election grounds for complaint. He believes several
candidates and the media are laying the groundwork for
electoral challenges similar to what happened in Mexico. For
example, Rafael Correa has repeatedly claimed in the press,
and during his recent meeting with Bielsa, that the elections
will be fraudulent because of MinDef Delgado's ties to Social
Christian Party (PSP) leader Leon Febres Cordero. Ecuadorian
Roldosista Party (PRE) candidate Fernando Rosero has repeated
those claims in the press and also formally complained to
Bielsa.


4. (C) Although Bielsa believes the GOE election authorities
are doing the best job they can with their resources, he said
there are potential weaknesses in their preparation that,
while not strictly fraud indicators, could be used by a
candidate to claim irregularities. Specifically, Bielsa
mentioned that delays in the vote count or the transport of
votes from provinces to the capital or slow counting could
lead to speculation. In this vein, Bielsa is very troubled
that the GOE Attorney General and the GOE Controller have not
approved the Supreme Electoral Tribunal's (TSE) contract for
quick counting with Brazilian firm E-Vote. The TSE has
re-affirmed that it will go forward with the E-Vote contract,
without the two agencies' blessing. Further, he believes
that a public expression of dissatisfaction with the
procurement method or any other aspect of the contract by
these two GOE agencies could cast doubt upon the election
results. Bielsa also mentioned that the GOE is printing too
many ballots.


5. (C) Bielsa recommended recruiting more OAS observers to
help quell the latent beliefs that fraud will taint the
elections. He believes it is too close to the elections to
counter the impression of fraud being cultivated by some
candidates in the media. He said political parties do not
have the resources to monitor all the polling stations. As
Ecuador has politicized election machinery, it is vital for
all political parties to be able to observe each step of the
process in each polling place. When some multilateral
organization members asked if they could help supply more
observers, Bielsa's deputy, Moises Benamor, welcomed the
offer, but said OAS resources were already accounted for.

Bielsa Meets With Candidates
--------------


6. (C) Bielsa said he met with all the political candidates,
except Alvaro Noboa. He characterized the meetings as
productive and informative. Talking with Correa was "like
talking to someone with six months to live"; in other words,
he acts and talks like he has nothing to lose. Bielsa
characterized Correa as very intelligent but as someone who
tended to trivialize many issues.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Conventional wisdom here has been that the elections
themselves will go relatively smoothly, while governance
after elections will surely be fraught with challenges.
Bielsa's views raise the possibility that elections this year
will not go as well as they have in the past because of fraud
allegations and gaps in GOE election administration. Bielsa
did not analyze how a large margin of victory would alter his
perceptions. Bielsa's deputy was more upbeat than Bielsa in
most of his comments. However, Bielsa's credible scenario of
controversial elections raised a red flag with international
donors.
JEWELL