CORREA TAKES THE LEAD, COULD WIN IN THE FIRST ROUND

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 002391

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2016
TAGS: KDEM PGOV EC
SUBJECT: CORREA TAKES THE LEAD, COULD WIN IN THE FIRST ROUND


Classified By: PolOff Erik Martini for reasons 1.4 (B&D)


1. (C) Summary: Rafael Correa has taken a commanding lead in
all recent polls, with 26% to Leon Roldos' 20%, trailed by
Cynthia Viteri and Alvaro Noboa each with 11%. Meanwhile
undecided remain substantial at 43%. Pollsters say his
momentum has been strong, but may be leveling. His rise has
been abetted by the poor campaign performance of Roldos and
Viteri. Electoral laws prohibit public release of polling
data between now and the election, but polls will continue to
be taken and privately available and shared within the
political class. A Correa first round win has become a
theoretical possibility, but remains less likely than a
second round win. In a recent debate, Correa signaled that
he would be supportive of internal efforts to combat
narco-trafficking and illegal armed group activity. He
continues to oppose international arbitration in the Oxy case
and firmly stands against renewal of the Manta FOL agreement.
In a recent interview, Correa made disparaging remarks about
President Bush, but said he would deal with him with the
respect his position (rather than his personal qualities)
merits. End Summary.

Latest Polling Puts Correa Firmly in the Lead
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2. (U) From now on, Ecuadorian election law prohibits

publication of polls in the media. The last polls published
in the media on September 24 now put Rafael Correa well ahead
of former front runner Leon Roldos, who continues his
momentum downward. Cynthia Viteri and Alvaro Noboa are in a
fight for a distant third and fourth place. Undecided
voters have also fallen, ranging from 31 to 47% in four
recent polls. Current poll results, all within /- 3% margin
of error (Cedatos, "Informe Confidencial," and Market):

-- Rafael Correa (26%, 22%, 26.4%)
-- Leon Roldos (18%, 20%, 19.5%)
-- Cynthia Viteri (10%, 9%, 11.4%)
-- Alvaro Noboa (11%, 9%, 10.1%)


3. (C) Informe Confidencial, one of the most respected
polling firms, passed additional polling information to
Ambassador, DCM and PolChief in a meeting on September 26
showing Correa with 26%, Roldos with 20%, and Viteri and
Noboa each with 11%. Undecideds remain at 43%. Apart from
the data in paragraph 2, all other polling information in
this cable refers to this latest unpublished information
passed during the meeting.

Correa Wins With 40%?
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4. (U) Ecuadorian election law stipulates that a candidate
may win outright in the first round if he or she gains one
vote more than 50% of the valid votes. A candidate may also
win in the first round if the ticket gains at least 40% of
the valid votes (subtracting any blank and null votes) and
beats the next highest challenger by 10% -- a difficult but
achievable outcome for Correa should current trends continue.
Valid votes are defined as those that express in whatever
intelligible manner the will of the voter on the official
ballot. Null votes are defined as those that are marked for
more than one candidate or have any other signal
demonstrating the voter's will to nullify his or her vote.
Blank votes have no mark.

Debate: Correa Dazzles; Viteri Attacks; Roldos Floats
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5. (C) The Quito Chamber of Commerce on September 25 hosted
a presidential debate for candidates that had at least 5%
support in the September 2-3 Market poll. Leon Roldos,
Rafael Correa, and Cynthia Viteri participated; Alvaro Noboa
declined. In opening comments, Roldos stressed the need for
more measured political reforms and again proposed a popular
referendum as a starting point, and said he would encourage
economic development. Taking the mike with a confident
smirk, Correa first acknowledge Ecuadorian immigrants living
abroad and vowed to change the "nefarious" system that
"expelled" them from their lands, and greeted indigenous
viewers in Quechua. He then dismissed Roldos' proposal,
calling for an immediate and radical overhaul of the current
political, social, and economic systems. Viteri, clearly
poised for battle with Correa, rebuffed his comments, calling
instead for political stability, judicial security, and a
positive investment climate. She also vowed to invest in
education, healthcare, and to encourage entrepreneurship.


6. (C) Throughout the debate Viteri aggressively attacked
Correa, and laid sole claim to the center-right spectrum on
issues like the FTA. Correa displayed his dazzling verbal
gifts with the same forceful, anti-establishment message that
has won him the lead, painting his opponents as compromised
figures of the "partidocracia." Roldos, utterly lacking the
charisma of the other two, sought to stay above the fray and
play the responsible, patriotic statesman. Correa
successfully responded to Viteri's attacks, and none seemed
likely to put him on the defensive.

Correa Criticizes U.S. But Open to Drug Fight
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7. (U) Responding to a question on narcotics trafficking and
money laundering in Ecuador, Correa expressed the need to
increase efforts to combat this international threat, but
called it principally a U.S. problem. "Drugs kill more young
people in the U.S. and 50% of incarcerated Americans are
there for drug related crimes," he said. He noted Ecuador's
efforts to counter narcotics trafficking as "significant"
given that "we are not a producing nation like Colombia and
Peru," and criticized the U.S. for considering ATPDEA
suspension. Correa said that Ecuador should continue to
receive trade preferences as compensation for its
counter-narcotics efforts. On the Manta FOL, however, Correa
again firmly stated that he would not renew, adding a new
laughline "unless the U.S. allowed an Ecuadorian base in
Miami."

Correa Echoes Chavez's Devil Remarks
--------------


8. (U) In an interview with TV personality Carlos Vera on
September 27, Correa called President George Bush "limited
and clumsy" and said that he had damaged the United States
and the world. He also apparently concurred with Hugo
Chavez's recent derogatory "devil" remarks offline. Correa
was quick, however, to distinguish as personal opinion only
his disdain for President Bush from his positive view of the
American people, noting that he lived in the U.S. for four
years. He said that if elected president he would honor
protocol and work with President Bush as the U.S. head of
state.


9. (U) Correa also denied reports that he would reduce
military funding by 50%, adding that he would reprioritize
the military's objectives to better address non-conventional
threats. He signaled his desire to defend the country
against narco-traffickers and illegal armed groups, while
refusing to involve Ecuador in Plan Colombia. Turning to
economic issues, Correa said he considers the Oxy case closed
and that he does not support international arbitration. He
promised that his proposed review of current national debt
servicing would not negatively impact Ecuador's investment
climate.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Correa could conceivably win in the first round.
Polling experts believe he is more likely to win the second.
Current polls show Correa leading Roldos in a second round
matchup by 44 to 39%. A third, currently less likely
scenario is a Roldos comeback in the second round. But as
the late leader, Correa could be effectively attacked as the
front-runner. His support is not consolidated, and his
supporters actually disagree with his positions on FTA,
Manta, and other issues almost as often as they agree with
him, according to sophisticated pollsters. His negative
ratings are 40%, compared to just 30% for Roldos. Finally,
undecided Ecuadorian voters tend not to vote for the
front-runner, more often seeking to punish success and level
the playing field by boosting the underdog.
JEWELL