CORREA TIES OR BEATS ROLDOS IN LATEST POLLS

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 002357 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL EC SUBJECT: CORREA TIES OR BEATS ROLDOS IN LATEST POLLS Classified By: PolOff Erik Martini for reasons 1.4 (B&D) ¶1. (U) Summary: Far-left Presidential candidate Rafael Correa is in a statistical dead heat with Leon Roldos in all national polls, while Cynthia Viteri has slipped to a more distant third. Feeling the pressure, Roldos has more aggressively questioned Correa's funding sources and Viteri reportedly met with PSC leaders to discuss her stagnant campaign. Correa's heavy publicity, both free and financed, continues to be a controversial factor. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal has reversed itself and unfrozen Noboa's campaign spending. End Summary. Undecided Help Correa -------------- ¶2. (U) Recent polls now put Rafael Correa ahead of or slightly behind former front runner Leon Roldos. Cynthia Viteri's support has plummeted but she remains in third place, and Alvaro Noboa is in a distant fourth. Undecided voters have fallen, but remain almost 50 per cent of the electorate. Current poll results, all within /- 3% margin of error (Cedatos, "Informe Confidencial," and Market): -- Leon Roldos (20%, 20%, 22.6%) -- Rafael Correa (19%, 22%, 19.8%) -- Cynthia Viteri (13%, 9%, 11.9%) -- Alvaro Noboa (10%, 9%, 8.3%) -- Gilmar Gutierrez (3%, 4%, N/A) Campaigns Shift Tactics, Strategy to Meet Correa Threat -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Responding to Rafael Correa's recent rise in the polls, Leon Roldos fired his campaign manager and vowed to more aggressively lobby the electorate. Both Roldos and his Vice-Presidential candidate, Gonzales, have stepped up their public questioning of Correa's funding source, mentioning Chavez as the likely money man. Meanwhile, Viteri's campaign reportedly met with PSC party officials at the home of Leon Febres Cordero. During the heated meeting, they decided Viteri would attack Correa directly, instead of leaving that job to the controversial Febres Cordero. ¶4. (U) Roldos and Viteri are now talking about how far they would go to reform the government. Roldos reiterated his support for a referendum to be enacted by Congress within three months. Press reports his party coalition as having decided to emphasize political reforms. In a statement typical of her bifurcated positions, Viteri says she is in favor of a referendum and would bring only new blood to her administration, but adds she will be the candidate of stability. Noboa has been relatively silent on political reform. Correa's Massive Publicity -------------- ¶5. (U) Correa's surge is bringing a lot of free publicity, on top of his massive campaign spending. A survey on September 19th by Guayaquil newspaper El Expreso showed he has more free publicity through TV, radio and press than any other candidate. Another press report shows his campaign has spent more on publicity in the last 20 days than any other candidate. Public funding of campaign publicity may begin today, but only apportions around $130,000 per candidate. Correa is already reported to have spent $531,624 in publicity in the last 20 days. TSE Will Not Freeze Noboa's Campaign Spending SIPDIS -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) on September 15 announced its decision to freeze Alvaro Noboa's campaign bank accounts for exceeding campaign spending limits. Noboa appealed the ruling, and on September 19 the TSE reversed its decision, finding that the $3.5 million dollars was spent before the regulation went into effect on March 31. Noboa is now free to spend up to $2.4 million, as the rules allow him to spend $2.7 million since March 31 and he has only spent $300,000. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Correa has successfully positioned himself as the "change" candidate, and the "outsider" candidate -- a winning combination in a country where disgust with the political establishment and frustration with the status quo are very high. He is young, attractive and very verbally gifted. He comes from Guayaquil, but has spent most of his adult life in Quito, so -- in a country deeply split by regional divide -- he is unusual in his ability to draw substantial support from both key regions. Finally, the fact that he is a well-educated (European and U.S. advanced degrees) person of non-indigenous, non-mestizo stock also makes a difference in this classist society; his message appeals to the masses, but his personal background places him within the comfort zone of many well-educated, professionals and even some elites. Many voters are clearly failing to appreciate how radical and dogmatic Correa really is. ¶8. (C) Viteri, Roldos and the other candidates will now attack Correa more pointedly, and he'll come under more scrutiny. But he effectively continues to present himself as a purely home-grown nationalist, and the charges of Chavez funding may not stick absent clear and compelling public evidence. Despite Correa's surge, there are many unknowns: as the debate over Correa's campaign sharpens, undecideds may go the other way; all campaigns still have media money to spend; and, even if Correa makes the second round, Viteri and Noboa have a substantial block of voters that are not (yet) sold on Correa's idea of radical change. JEWELL