ELECTIONS UPDATE: 13 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FINAL

UNCLAS QUITO 002242 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EC SUBJECT: ELECTIONS UPDATE: 13 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FINAL ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Constitutional Court on September 6 authorized the candidacies of Lenin Torres (Popular Participation Revolution Movement) and Bolivarian candidate Marcelo Larrea (Third Republic Alliance Movement),while denying two other appeals, bringing down the final number of presidential tickets to 13 from 17 original aspirants. Polls of decided voters still show Roldos out front, Cynthia Viteri in second, and Correa close behind and rising, in third place. Meanwhile, some disillusioned pressure groups are urging voters invalidate their ballots for Congress, to further de-legitimize this troubled democratic institution and spur political reform. The GOE has officially requested USG support for the OAS observation mission, and OAS election monitoring head Rafael Bielsa visited Ecuador this week to meet the presidential candidates and sign an agreement with the government. Civil society groups ramped up their respective efforts to promote electoral debate on issues of concern, ensure free and transparent elections, and protect the rights of indigenous and disabled. End Summary. Presidential List Final at 13 -------------- ¶2. (U) The Constitutional Court on September 6 overturned the August 23 Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) ruling precluding Lenin Torres (MRPP) and Marcelo Larrea (MATR) from competing in the October 15 presidential elections. The Court ruled that the TSE had no legal basis for eliminating 12,000 petition signatures due to duplication between independent candidates, and subsequently authorized their campaigns. The Court denied the appeals of independents Pedro Roura (MRP) and Marcelo Aguinaga (MCN),for other technical failures. The list of presidential candidates for the October 15 elections is now final. ¶3. (U) Final list of candidates, in roughly declining order of popularity among decided voters: -- Leon Roldos (RED/ID), -- Cynthia Viteri (PSC), -- Alvaro Noboa (PRIAN), -- Rafael Correa (PAIS), -- Fernando Rosero (PRE), -- Gilmar Gutierrez (PSP), -- Luis Villacis (MPD), -- Marco Proano Maya (MRD), -- Jaime Damerval (CFP), -- Luis Macas (Pachakutik), -- Carlos Sagnay (The Eclectic (!) Movement), -- Lenin Torres (MRPP), -- Marcelo Larrea (MATR). Polls: Correa Rising? -------------- ¶4. (U) A September 2-3 poll conducted by relatively credible "Informe Confidencial" revealed that while Roldos still leads the pack, his support has fallen to 19%. Viteri is now in second with 15% and Correa follows, in a virtual dead heat, with 14%. Noboa rounds off the top four with 10% while Gilmar Gutierrez trails in fifth with just 4%. CEDATOS/Gallup and Market polls show slightly higher numbers for Roldos. An August 30 CEDATOS/Gallup poll put Roldos at 24%, followed by Viteri with 17%, and Correa trailing with 12%. Noboa and Gutierrez follow with 9% and 7%, respectively. "Market's" September 2-3 poll showed 24.6% for Roldos, a virtual tie between Viteri and Correa (13% vs. 12.7%),and Noboa and Gutierrez trailing with 8.5% and 3.4%, respectively. ¶5. (U) The number of undecided voters continues to vary widely but remains high. "Informe Confidencial" reported 62% of their respondents had not decided on a presidential candidate, CEDATOS/Gallup 71%, and Market 48.8%. Nihilist "Vote" -------------- ¶6. (U) Frustrated with the quality of Congress, some civil society and political pressure groups are calling on voters to nullify their ballots for Congress on October 15. Leaders of the effort ("Honorable Congress", "Common People", TV personality Carlos Vera, and radical defrocked priest Eduardo Delgado) hope to pressure the new Congress to immediately approve a constituent assembly (previously blocked by Congress) to rewrite the constitution. A recently released study on democracy conducted by Vanderbilt University, funded by USAID, found that the National Congress ranks at the bottom of a list of 22 political institutions in public confidence (just above political parties). Second Round Referendum -------------- ¶7. (U) President Palacio on September 7 reiterated his August 10 call for a non-binding referendum and announced that the Ministry of Government and the Presidential Secretary General of Public Administration were working on SIPDIS questions to be presented to voters during the expected presidential runoff on November 26. Questions will reportedly be put to voters on education, health, spending of oil resources, and political reform. The referendum proposal has not yet been presented to the TSE for approval. Campaign Spending -------------- ¶8. (U) Presidential candidates will receive government funded access to media advertising totaling around $130,760 each. Noboa, however, is being investigated by the TSE for exceeding overall campaign spending limits by $1.1 m. before the election campaign period even began (reportedly spending $3.8 m. thus far). Noboa's camp maintains his pre-campaign publicity blitz had humanitarian rather than electoral motives. An unfavorable decision could result in a fine quadruple the value of Noboa's overspending. OAS Observation Mission Visit Raises Profile -------------- ¶9. (U) Chief of the OAS Election Observation Mission (EOM) Rafael Bielsa visited Ecuador September 5-7 to meet with presidential candidates individually and to sign an agreement with the GOE authorizing OAS election observation activities. After meeting with FM Carrion for the signing ceremony and with election authorities, Bielsa told the press that pre-electoral preparations appeared to be going well. OAS election observers are expected to arrive in Ecuador the last week in September. GOE Requests USG Assistance for EOM -------------- ¶10. (U) On September 1 the Embassy received a diplomatic note (#36277/06-SM, faxed to WHA/AND) from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially requesting USG support for the OAS election observation mission for the first round of voting on October 15. In the note, the GOE expresses confidence that OAS observation "will constitute an additional guarantee that the electoral process takes place in a manner which is democratic and transparent, and in accordance with Ecuadorian electoral law, thereby helping to strengthen democracy in Ecuador." USAID Grantees Active -------------- ¶11. (U) Volunteers with Citizen Participation (PC),a local NGO receiving USAID support, were registered by the TSE as official national observers for both rounds of elections. PC also signed an agreement with the TSE to observers for Ecuadorians voting in the diaspora, which they will coordinate with immigrant associations. PC has scheduled 13 events for citizens to meet their congressional candidates to discuss key electoral issues in September. PC also plays a key role in independently monitoring campaign spending, posting regular reports on the internet that are widely publicized by the press. ¶12. (U) The Center for Electoral Promotion (CAPEL),also with USAID funding, is providing technical assistance and training to the TSE to prepare over 250,000 poll workers for election-day. CAPEL is also providing assistance to the TSE to enhance efforts to encourage voting by persons with disabilities. ¶13. (U) The indigenous NGO "Q'ellkaj" Foundation initiated its own pre-electoral observation program on August 31. Their efforts will focus on ten cities and rural areas with significant populations. Nine workshops to train over 200 volunteers will begin in September. Q'ellkaj will also launch an aggressive radio campaign in indigenous communities promoting the importance of voting. USAID and the Netherlands Embassy are supporting the NGO's effort. ¶14. (U) The Federation of People with Disabilities (FENEDIF),with USAID support, is poised to launch on September 7 a project to promote political and employment rights of people with disabilities, and seeks to increase the participation of persons with disabilities in the up-coming elections. FENEDIF has worked closely with the TSE in the design and production of information, ballots, and training to assist disabled citizens. ¶15. (U) Finally, another USAID-supported group, called "Seventeen Urgent Themes," involves a civil society alliance of 15 NGOs, and is promoting attention 17 priority issues (e.g. education, health, political participation, etc.). Their goal is to encourage presidential candidates to reveal their positions on all the issues, especially before the runoff vote in November. The alliance began disseminating the issues to media outlets in late August, with many journalists already incorporating the points in interviews. The group will hold 22 nationwide events to disseminate and promote their efforts. Five such events have been held and the rest will be completed in September. The National Democratic Institute (NDI) will also sponsor a meeting between the alliance and political parties to promote the topics. Comment -------------- ¶16. (SBU) With the presidential field finally set, and the formal 45-day campaign period well underway, we are beginning to see some shifts in the polls, and an emerging tight race for second place between Viteri and Correa. Most voters, however, remain undecided, offering hope to all aspirants, however unlikely. The Court's decision to authorize the Torres and Larrea could have political motives, to splinter the leftist vote and thereby favor Viteri. Larrea's Third Republic Alliance Movement is a new fringe movement largely without presence in current polls. Larrea's revolutionary program openly associates itself with Hugo Chavez' brand of Bolivarianism, in contrast to Correa. Meanwhile, Palacio's quixotic attempt to force a referendum still seems unlikely to be approved. JEWELL