ECUADOR ELECTIONS: NOW THERE ARE TEN...OR ELEVEN?

UNCLAS QUITO 002131 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EC SUBJECT: ECUADOR ELECTIONS: NOW THERE ARE TEN...OR ELEVEN? REF: QUITO 02064 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) on August 22 announced that it had approved the candidacies of 10 of the original 17 presidential hopefuls, and reported that five independents failed to secure required signatures and would be disqualified. PSP candidate Gilmar Gutierrez was disqualified by the TSE on August 17 for not registering within three days of his brother Lucio's rejection; the PSP appeal of this decision to the Constitutional Court is pending. In other electoral news, Rafael Correa criticized front-runner Leon Roldos for backsliding on his agreement with Freddy Ehlers; Alvaro Noboa faces charges of exceeding campaign spending caps by $3.3 m.; and Correa brushed off questions about his August 17 visit to Venezuela, where he had dinner with President Chavez. A recent poll found that 65% of those surveyed remain undecided, while Roldos remains out front with 26%. Results of a televised debate on August 22 among the top five candidates will be reported SepTel. End Summary. TSE Reduces Presidential Field SIPDIS -------------- ¶2. (U) The TSE announced on August 23 that independent presidential candidates Julio Pincay (MIPE),Lenin Torres (MRPP),and Marcelo Aguinaga (MCN) were disqualified for failing to attain the required 89,903 signatures (1% of the national electorate) in support of their candidacies at the head of new movements. (Note: party candidates are not required to present signatures, only new political movements). The TSE is also expected to rule against independents Pedro Roura (MRP),Franklin Munoz (MNDC), Marcelo Larrea (the Bolivarian ALBA candidate) this week. Thus far, TSE has approved seven political party candidates and three independents: ¶1. Leon Roldos, RED/Democratic Left Alliance (RED/ID) Movement. VP Ramiro Gonzalez. ¶2. Cynthia Viteri, Social Christian Party (PSC). VP Ernesto Davalos. ¶3. Alvaro Noboa. Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN). VP Vincente Taiano. ¶4. Rafael Correa, PAIS Alliance Movement (PAIS). VP Lenin Moreno. ¶5. Fernando Rosero, Ecuadorian Roldosista Party (PRE). VP Suzy Mendoza. ¶6. Luis Villacis, Democratic People's Movement (MPD). VP Cesar Buelva. ¶7. Marco Proano Maya, Movement for Democratic Vindication 
(MRD). VP Galo Cabanilla. ¶8. Jaime Damerval, Concentration of People's Forces (CFP) Party. VP Lida Moreno. ¶9. Luis Macas, Pluri-National Pachakutik United Movement (PK). VP Cesar Sacoto. ¶10. Carlos Sagnay, The Eclectic Movement (ME). VP Luis Tuaran. Gutierrez Brothers Out? -------------- ¶3. (U) The TSE on August 17 rejected Gilmar Gutierrez' (PSP) presidential candidacy, ruling that he failed to register within three days following their July 16 rejection of brother Lucio Gutierrez' candidacy (on the grounds Gutierrez had accepted support for his 2002 candidacy from abroad). The Gutierrez brothers immediately proclaimed their party the victim of a second violation, and appealed to the Constitutional Court on August 18. The TC is expected to rule on the issue later this week, but their decision will likely be based on political calculations of the leading parties. 65% Undecided -------------- ¶4. (U) An August 19 "Informe Confidencial" poll revealed that Roldos continues to lead the herd with 26%, Viteri is in second with 15%, and Noboa and Correa are tied with 12%. The poll found that 65% of those surveyed remain undecided. Public opinion analysts say that number is expected to decline to 40% during the 45-day campaign period, which opens on August 29. They blamed the lateness of many candidates to register, and uncertainty generated by Noboa's temporary withdrawal from the race, for the high rate of voter indecision. Others claim it reflects public rejection and apathy over electoral politics. Roldos Clarifies, Correa Attacks -------------- ¶5. (U) Correa publicly criticized Roldos for imperiously altering the August 10 "pact of the center-left" brokered by potential candidate and TV personality Freddy Ehlers. The document signed by Ehlers and Correa called for a constituent assembly to be convoked by the new president the day after taking office, on January 16. In signing the accord several days after Correa, Roldos altered the document by hand, penning a qualifier that he would call for a constituent assembly only if Congress failed to act on political reforms he would propose be put to a referendum. Correa accused Roldos of backsliding, questioning his attitude (for altering the document "as if he were Emperor") and commitment to political reform. Roldos countered that his private agreement with Ehlers had always included the grace period for Congress to act on reforms. Correa Visits Chavez -------------- ¶6. (U) Correa confirmed reports about an August 17 visit he made to Venezuela, during which he reportedly traveled to Venezuela with his campaign manager Ricardo Patino to attend an event, and subsequently dined or stayed in Chavez' parent's home in Barinas where he dined with President Chavez. In confirming the reports, Correa claimed he had not solicited the meeting, and denied any formal connection to the Venezuelan Bolivarian Movement. He acknowledged only a "personal friendship with President Hugo Chavez" and did not disclose the topics of their conversation. Noboa Exceeds Spending Cap -------------- ¶7. (U) The TSE reported on August 23 that Noboa had already exceeded the $1.7 million electoral spending cap by $3.3 million, before officially registering as a candidate. Noboa's running mate, Vicente Taiano, rejected the claim, claiming that Noboa's radio and television spots support his humanitarian endeavors and are not part of the presidential campaign. Noboa has overspent before--he was ordered to pay $4.7 million in fines for overspending on his 2002 presidential bid. Ecuadorian electoral law stipulates that any candidate who exceeds spending caps must pay a fine for twice the amount by which the cap was exceeded. Some speculate that Noboa's recent indecision over whether to run was related to the looming fine. Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The presidential field should be finalized by the end of the week, and the formal 45-day campaign period opens on August 29. The large number of undecided voters means the race is still wide open. Though Roldos has consistently maintained his edge among decided voters, Ecuadorian voters have a recent history of late support for outsider candidates. A recent poll shows support for Correa strongest among the most educated, wealthiest voters. The deciding vote, however, will come from the more populous poor, who have yet to decide who they favor among the confusing array of candidates. JEWELL