WELCOME BACK, GENERAL CRADDOCK

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 001910 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2014 TAGS: PREL MARR MASS MOPS SNAR PTER EC SUBJECT: WELCOME BACK, GENERAL CRADDOCK Classified By: CDA Jefferson Brown, Reasons 1.4 (b&d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Please accept my warm welcome on your final visit to Ecuador, General Craddock. It has been a pleasure and privilege for all of us at U.S. Mission Ecuador to work with you to cement and deepen productive U.S.-Ecuador military relations. Your visit comes at a time when U.S.-Ecuador military-to-military cooperation is strong. USG military assistance continues to help the Ecuadorian military better train and equip their units to combat the narcoterrorist threat along their northern border. We are also nearing conclusion of an important maritime operational procedures agreement and continue to push for greater cooperation in this area and others. ¶2. (C) Significant potential exists for your visit to be misinterpreted here, as the GOE publicly lobbies for ATPDEA extension based on their positive counternarcotics contributions. The private message we hope your visit conveys is one of appreciation for the CN/CT cooperation and the mutual interest to be served by deepening that cooperation in certain areas. Our challenge is to use public diplomacy tools to emphasize a message of partnership against transnational threats, while making clear that ATPDEA is an issue primarily linked to the commercial/economic agenda and up to the U.S. Congress. End Summary. Watch Out For: ATPDEA Extension -------------- ¶3. (C) The GOE's decision to implement a hydrocarbons reform law we believe violates our bilateral investment treaty, and then in a separate action expropriate Occidental Petroleum holdings in Ecuador, compelled USTR to suspend FTA talks with Ecuador just as Colombia and Peru were successfully concluding theirs. The Andean Trade Preference Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA),initially conceived to foster licit economic growth in regions threatened by narco-activity, but intended only as a temporary tool until trade agreements could be reached, is set to expire in December of 2006. With no FTA and no indication that the U.S. Congress will extend ATPDEA for Ecuador, the GOE is finally realizing the price they will pay for having soured bilateral commercial relations at this critical juncture. They are engaged in a final full court press to gain ATPDEA extension as salvation. ¶4. (U) President Palacio has publicly called for immediate ATPDEA extension, claiming it to be Ecuador's "moral" right in recognition of its counter-drug initiatives. Minister of Defense Oswaldo Jarrin has echoed that message, albeit with less charged language. Following his return from the U.S., Jarrin stated publicly that he had traveled to the U.S. to lobby Secretary Rumsfeld and Assistant Secretary of State Shannon to provide an Article 98 waiver and increase military-to-military assistance. He said that Ecuador had expended considerable resources fighting narco-terrorism, but had not received sufficient USG support for their efforts. While he reaffirmed Ecuador's commitment to working with the U.S., he called for cooperation based on common interests rather than on dependence. Our message back is that we are committed to helping Ecuador protect against the exploitation of its sovereign land and seas by international criminal elements. ¶5. (C) Many here could interpret your visit as a vote of support for GOE counter-narcotics efforts, with a positive view towards a decision on ATPDEA. You should be prepared for questions on ATPDEA extension, both publicly and privately. Since ATPDEA is a U.S. congressional matter, we cannot and should not speculate on its outcome. Since SOUTHCOM's praise for Ecuador's anti-drug efforts could be interpreted as a USG signal, we should be appropriately upbeat but cautious with respect to the tone of any statement. While there is no formal press availability built into your schedule, if approached, I recommend you highlight USG investment in security and development along the Ecuador-Colombia border, and avoid speculation over ATPDEA extension as a primarily trade policy issue outside your purview. The Embassy, working with SOUTHCOM through MILGP, will prepare a press release framing the nature and reason for your trip. The release will include language stating that U.S.-Ecuador military cooperation is in the best interest of both countries, especially in the common fight against drug trafficking. Cross-Border Relations Better -------------- ¶6. (U) Ecuador-Colombia relations have calmed considerably since your last visit to Ecuador. Civil and military officials maintain fluid communication on a number of cross-border development and security issues, and the two foreign ministers are especially close. Minister of Defense Oswaldo Jarrin has publicly taken a harder stance on Colombian illegal armed group activity in Ecuador, and appears to be trying to open the public's eyes to the narco-terrorist threat already present in Ecuador. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs made considerable progress on the proposed cross-border integrated development plan, and the two countries are looking for ways to fund selected projects. ¶7. (U) Aerial fumigations, however, remain a sensitive issue. The press recently reported claims by local officials and a civil society group that Colombia had resumed aerial spaying along the border. The MOD, MFA, and the government of Colombia, however, have denied the allegations. Recent Anti-FARC Successes -------------- ¶8. (C) The Ecuadorian military conducted "Operation Clean 38 July 24-28 in the northern border province of Sucumbios. During the five-day operation, a 1500-man unit destroyed five suspected illegal armed group camps and engaged in a brief exchange of fire with suspected FARC rebels in Santa Rosa de Cofanes. One suspected combatant was later found dead one kilometer north of the scurmish. Ecuadorian military officials believe that he was likely killed during the brief exchange; details surrounding the death have not yet been confirmed. The camps reportedly contained field housing, military supplies, grenades, and drug processing chemicals. ¶9. (U) Minister Jarrin told the press these recent findings again prove that illegal armed groups are operating in Ecuador, and underscores the need for his forces to remain vigilant along the Ecuador-Colombia border. Jarrin also publicly expressed concern that illegal armed groups are involving Ecuadorian civilians in illicit activities in the region. ¶10. (C) The Ecuadorian military used fuel, Harris Radios, and individual equipment purchased with NAS and DASD-CD 1033 funds on this exercise. While GOE-USG cooperation produced desired results, current MILGP funding levels continue to constrain our ability to provide greater operational support, equipping, and infrastructure funds to the Ecuadorian military. Disturbing Development - CHOD Enriquez's Brother Killed -------------- -------------- ¶11. (C) Hugo Enriquez, the brother of the Joint Chief of Staff head Nelson Enriquez, was killed by Colombian military while trying to evade a border checkpoint on July 19. While Colombian and Ecuadorian accounts differ, most agree that Enriquez tried to overrun a checkpoint in his F-350 pickup truck, forcing Colombian soldiers to open fire. Enriquez's son, who was driving a second vehicle, abandoned his truck and drove his father's damaged vehicle into Ecuador. The truck was later found in an Ecuadorian garage, devoid of any cargo. ¶12. (C) Enriquez was reportedly attempting to smuggle sugar and auto-parts into Ecuador, however, his actions strongly suggests that the cargo was likely much more valuable. The Ecuadorian military has maintained silence on the issue, but it is rumored that CHOD Enriquez may be soon dismissed for being linked to his brother's illicit activities. Foreign Minister Francisco Carrion has publicly demanded a full investigation by Colombian authorities of the incident. Navy chief Holguin is the most likely successor - an excellent friend of the U.S. We would just as soon see a hobbled Enriquez finish out the Palacio caretaker regime and Holguin take charge in January under the next president for what would be hopefully a more extended period. October 15 Elections Pose Challenges -------------- ¶13. (U) Ecuadorian presidential and general elections will take place on October 15. Although there are many candidates, and many Ecuadorians remain undecided, polls show four main contenders. Currently leading the polls, with around a quarter of the vote, is former vice-president and university rector, Leon Roldos, the candidate for the center-left alliance between the Ethical and Democratic Network (RED) and the Democratic Left Party (ID). Cynthia Viteri of the center-right, Guayaquil based Social Christian Party (PSC) follows with around 15%, and far-left candidate Rafael Correa trails with around 10%. The deadline for candidate inscription is August 15 and much is still in flux. Though he recently withdrew from the race, banana magnate Alvaro Noboa recently formed an alliance with ex-president Lucio Gutierrez' party to contest the elections. Depending on their choice of candidates, the PRIAN-PSP ticket could alter current standings. Bottom line: only Correa represents a serious worry to USG interests, given his ideological commitment to a Chavez-like agenda. Candidates Discuss Manta FOL Extension -------------- ¶14. (U) Correa has said "they would have to cut off my hand before I would renew this contract...enough already with this carrot and stick policy...Not one more foreign soldier in our country." Roldos has said "we are going to respect the accord...However, if the U.S. refuses to negotiate an FTA and ends ATPDEA...I would immediately close the base (FOL)." Going further, Roldos said that Ecuador is supposedly part of the fight against drugs and you cannot maintain one portion of the privileges and benefits (FOL) while you suspend the other (ATPDEA). On the supposed effects of Plan Colombia, Roldos said that he would seek indemnification from the U.S. and Colombia to fund troop mobilization along the border, health and property losses, and refugee integration and repatriation. Meanwhile, Viteri says she would keep the option of renegotiation open. ¶15. (C) It would be interesting to discuss Manta renewal prospects with MOD Jarrin, including his personal views on how a new agreement could best benefit Ecuador. Good News: Maritime Law Enforcement Agreement -------------- ¶16. (SBU) The USG and GOE, after more than two years of discussion, are nearing conclusion of a maritime law enforcement agreement. The proposed agreement lacks the strength of other such accords the U.S. has with neighboring countries, but would help to standardize and improve maritime interdiction activities in and around Ecuadorian waters. The agreement sets basic operational procedures for obtaining permission to interdict and board vessels suspected of drug trafficking. We hope to have all revisions completed and the document signed by GOE and USG officials on August 16 in Ecuador. During your meeting with the MOD you might congratulate him on efforts made by Navy and DIGMER authorities to conclude the agreement and encourage a speedy final review. MFA Sends CNIES Back to MOD -------------- ¶17. (C) Unfortunately, the proposed Cooperative Nations Information Exchange System (CNIES) agreement remains frozen in the GOE. MFA Director General for National Director of National Sovereignty Jaime Barberis recently sent the draft proposal to Ecuadorian military officials who he said were unaware of its existence. During your meeting with the MOD you might stress CNIES benefits and encourage him to push the proposal forward. BROWN