ELECTIONS UPDATE: CANDIDATE POSITION PROFILE

UNCLAS QUITO 001867 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EC SUBJECT: ELECTIONS UPDATE: CANDIDATE POSITION PROFILE ¶1. (U) Summary: In Ecuador,s presidential race, only two of the four front runners have concrete political platforms. Leon Roldos and Rafael Correa present well-defined stances on the issues. Correa,s stance is particularly anti-U.S. Cynthia Viteri and the PRIAN/PRI alliance have not yet defined clearly their positions on many issues. Roldos and Correa would not renew the FOL-Manta agreement after 2009. Viteri leaves open the possibility for renegotiation after 2009, perhaps as leverage in FTA negotiations. End Summary. RED-ID: Leon Roldos)No ATPDEA, No FOL (23-29% in Polls) -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) Center-left candidate Leon Roldos (RED-ID) has a well developed website with an eight-page platform that is balanced with aspirational language and specific prescriptions. On external debt, Roldos would continue paying but not increase the level of the overall debt. He proposes to deposit debt service money into a fund, inviting creditors to pick a range of social programs using the fund as a way of paying off the debt. He has an eight point plan to arrive at his goal of 6% economic growth each year. ¶3. (U) While Roldos remains open to international trade agreements, especially regional, he would put any FTA with the U.S. to a plebiscite. Roldos says that he would not renew the Manta FOL agreement after it expires in 2009. Going further in a recent interview, however, Rolodos said that if the U.S. Congress fails to renew trade preferences (ATPDEA) set to expire in December 2006, the GOE should shut down the FOL. Finally, Roldos says he would demand indemnification from the U.S. and Colombia for the supposed effects of Plan Colombia, including expensive troop mobilization to the border, health and property losses, and refugee integration and repatriation. ¶4. (U) An interesting and unique feature of his campaign documents is the emphasis on the Ecuadorian migrant vote -- eligible to vote in these elections for the first time. His website has a prominent tab on the home page for migrants, explaining how they can vote outside of Ecuador. His platform includes a section on migrants, guaranteeing voting rights and establishing a government bureau within the Presidency to define migrant policy. The other campaigns mention migrant issues but do not focus with the same depth and emphasis of the Roldos campaign. ;PSC: Cynthia Viteri,s Views Unclear (16-17% in Polls) -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) Center-right candidate Cynthia Viteri,s (PSC) campaign platform lacks substance and direction. On her website, Viteri outlines her positions in blurbs of two or three sentences on the frequently asked questions link. She fails to take a specific position on FTA, saying she would have negotiated better but is not opposed to the &opening of the world.8 On oil policy, she calls for an investigation of all oil contracts and the percentages and prices negotiated at the time of the contract. If the contract allows caducity as a remedy for breach, it should be applied. ¶6. (U) Viteri promises to pay Ecuador,s external debt but draws an analogy between Ecuador,s situation and what &we housewives8 would do: if the choice is between paying debt and eating, housewives will choose to pay for food. Viteri does not mention any specific ideas on Colombian relations other than pointing out the high cost of Ecuador,s military mobilization, supposed health effects of glyphosate spraying, and the social effects of Columbian refugees. Viteri, in a recent press interview, said she would honor the Manta FOL agreement until it expires in 2009, and would only renegotiate if it benefits Ecuador. She also expressed interest in a possible return to FTA talks. ¶7. (U) Although flashy and full of high-quality photos, Viteri,s website fails to address any substantive issues. Links for her &Work Plan8 reveal empty pages in the categories of Economy, Work, Education, Security, Environment, and Health. Similarly, the &News8 link is also blank. Correa,s Anti-American Plan No Surprise (11% in Polls) -------------- -------------- ¶8. (U) Far-left presidential candidate Rafael Correa (Leftist PAIS) presents the most voluminous prescription for government in his 44-paged, rhetoric filled manifesto. The document is littered with phrases and words such as &radical change8 and &revolution8 to emphasize its sweeping nature, and proposes a constitutional convention to overhaul the central government. ¶9. (U) Aside from the rhetoric, Correa,s views are very predictable. If elected, he would neither negotiate nor sign an FTA, calls for the integration of Latin America, and associates himself with Chavez, Morales, Kirchner, Lula da Silva, Vasquez, and Bachelet ) all of whom he claims were elected as backlash to the Washington Consensus. Garcia and Uribe are noticeably absent from Correa,s grand South America affinity. ¶10. (U) Correa calls for energy integration in the region, particularly with Venezuela. If elected, he says he would go further than the current changes to Ecuador,s Hydrocarbons Law by &redistributing8 all petroleum profits using as a point of reference Texaco,s margins in the 70s and 80s. He would embark on land reform, review all electrical supply contracts, obligate all pharmacies and hospitals to offer generic drugs, refuse any international arbitration in any area, strengthen state business organizations like Petroecuador, and impose a moratorium on oil drilling in the Amazon. ¶11. (U) With respect to external debt, Correa says that his administration would never accept any conditions for additional debt and never pay more for debt service than what the budget disburses for social programs or national defense. Finally, on the Manta FOL, he says he would not tolerate any foreign soldiers on Ecuadorian soil, but would allow the agreement to run its course until 2009. PRIAN/PSP Reprise -------------- ¶12. (U) The alliance between the PRIAN and PSP has yet to produce a candidate. It represents an interesting twist reminiscent of the two parties, alliance in early 2005 attempting to salvage the Gutierrez presidency,s governability. In the realm of ideas, both parties have yet to formalize much of a platform. Gutierrez,s personal website has a bulleted list of vague promises under three headings and the PRIAN webpage is similarly vague. The PSP website is mostly populist rhetoric with few specific plans for government. It does specify dollarization and the Manta FOL as two grave violations of national sovereignty. Noboa,s personal website has an extensive platform focusing mostly on social issues. While not mentioning Manta or Colombia policy, it specifies that any FTA negotiated with the U.S. must protect Ecuadorian agriculture. ¶13. (SBU) Gutierrez and Noboa have not made many public pronouncements on any substantive issues of interest to the U.S. Gutierrez has concentrated mostly on his struggle in the courts to be an eligible candidate. Similarly, Noboa has been focusing on whether to run. Privately, PRIAN deputy Vicente Taiano assured PolOffs that his party lamented the failure of the FTA, the expulsion of Occidental Petroleum, and was generally aligned with the U.S. on all major issues. Gutierrez, whose government launched the FTA talks, has privately expressed similar views to us. Comment -------------- ¶14. (SBU) All eyes are on the PRIAN/PSP alliance. As these two parties focus on personalities and populism, they may not come out with a precise political platform. Viteri seems to be remaining vague on the issues so that she can maximize freedom in her increasingly nervous search for a vice presidential candidate, minimize undecided voter alienation, and keep her charisma more than anything else at the fore. Roldos and Correa are already well defined on the issues. In the next two weeks there will be three things to watch: whether Viteri is successful finding a credible vice presidential candidate; any movement in undecided voters; and, whether the PRIAN/PSP names strong candidates by August ¶15. BROWN