ELECTIONS UPDATE: PSP-PRIAN FORM ALLIANCE;

UNCLAS QUITO 001837 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EC SUBJECT: ELECTIONS UPDATE: PSP-PRIAN FORM ALLIANCE; INDIGENOUS FRAGMENTATION CONTINUES REF: QUITO 01772 ¶1. (U) Summary: Lucio Gutierrez, PSP and Alvaro Noboa's PRIAN announced on July 26 that the two parties would form an alliance for the presidential ticket. Gutierrez publicly asked Noboa to reenter the presidential race at the top of the PRIAN-PSP ticket. Noboa, however, has not responded publicly but is rumored to be considering the proposal. Meanwhile, a contentious Pachakutik primary election for a congressional seat from the Cotopaxi Province on July 21 revealed deepening internal party tensions and a fractured far-left approaching national elections. End Summary. PRIAN & PSP Unite -------------- ¶2. (U) The PSP and PRIAN announced on July 26 that they would form an alliance for the Oct 15 presidential election. PRIAN will reportedly provide the presidential candidate while PSP will fill the vice presidential slot -- probably with Lucio Gutierrez's brother Gilmar. An announcement on the selected candidates is expected later this week. ¶3. (U) Confirmation of the alliance comes after a week of speculation by political insiders and the media, and is rumored to have opened the door for Alvaro Noboa's return to the campaign trail. Ex-president Lucio Gutierrez publicly asked Noboa to consider reentering the race. Noboa, however, has not responded publicly, but is rumored to be considering the proposal. ¶4. (U) In a meeting with PolOffs on July 19, PRIAN congressman and national coordinator for elections Vicente Taiano noted that the PRIAN and PSP parties share a similar brand of populism (including a commitment to market-based solutions and free trade) and that Gutierrez and Noboa get along very well. He also commented that an alliance with Abdala Bucaram's PRE was very unlikely, as their style of populism -- especially with respect to economic policy -- was too different. ¶5. (U) Taiano also said that many in the PRIAN were upset with Noboa's decision to dropout, but claimed that Noboa had done so to save the country from the instability that would be caused by those who would never accept Noboa's presidency. Taiano said that Noboa would likely not run for president again, but did not rule out that Noboa could be convinced to rejoin the race. Pachakutik's Internal Woes Continue -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Pachakutik's refusal to ally themselves with Rafael Correa's presidential candidacy and instead name their own candidate, Luis Macas, has left many indigenous voters undecided. Pachakutik Congressman Jorge Guaman told PolOff on July 20 that the poll numbers for Macas do not accurately depict his popularity, but conceded that there was worry that a large segment of the indigenous would support Correa. ¶7. (SBU) Antonio Ricaurte, a former Pachakutik politician who left the party to join the Leon Roldos (RED-ID) campaign, told PolOff on July 20 that he thought Macas would only garner a maximum of 4% of the vote, and that Auki Tituana, the popular Pachakutik mayor of Cotacachi, was furious that he did not receive Pachakutik's presidential nomination. Ricaurte also commented that Pachakutik's unwillingness to enter an alliance with Correa would cause them to lose several Congressional seats. ¶8. (U) Raul Ilaquiche, the former vice president of the ECUARUNARI indigenous organization, defeated incumbent Congressman and Vice President of the Congress, Jorge Guaman, and Carlos Riofrio, a close associate of Cotopaxi Prefect Cesar Umajinga, in the July 21 primary elections for the Pachakutik congressional seat for Cotopaxi Province. ¶9. (U) The contentious primary in the indigenous heartland province, which revealed a deepening division within the party, was bitterly denounced by both Guaman and Umajinga, who accused Ilaquiche's wife, Lourdes Tiban, the Executive Secretary of the Council for Development of Ecuador's SIPDIS Indigenous Nations and People (CODENPE),of buying Ilaquiche the election. Lourdes Tiban had recently donated 3.8 million USD to various communities in Cotopaxi through the agency. Ilaquiche defended his wife, saying that it was her obligation as Executive Secretary of CODENPE to distribute resources to indigenous communities. Don't Talk to the Gringos -------------- ¶10. (SBU) There appears to be division within the ranks of Pachakutik and Confederation of Ecuadorian Indian Nations (CONAIE) on the level of interaction they should have with the Embassy. Luis Macas, head of CONAIE, has refused invitations from the Ambassador, and has advised his organization to avoid dialogue with the USG. However, CONAIE Vice President Santiago de la Cruz and Congressman Jorge Guaman each expressed interest in open dialogue to PolOff. Additionally, spurned Pachakutik candidate-hopeful, Cotacachi Mayor Auki Tituana, recently invited the Ambassador to visit Cotacachi in late August. Latest Poll Figures -------------- ¶11. (U) A nationwide "Informe Confidencial" poll published in Quito daily "El Comercio" on July 22 showed that 64% of Ecuadorian voters remain undecided. When asked which candidate they would pick if the election were today, 29% of respondents chose Leon Roldos (RED-ID),17% chose Cynthia Viteri (PSC),and 10% picked Correa. Another poll, published by CEDATOS showed that 41 % of voters were undecided and that Roldos led with 23%, and was followed by Viteri with 16% and Correa with 11%. Comment -------------- ¶12. (SBU) The PRIAN-PSP alliance, with Noboa at the helm and with Gutierrez' support, could produce a strong showing in the October elections, possibly making it to the second round. Gutierrez and Noboa had each been receiving about 15% support in polls, and separately they garnered about 5 million votes in the last election. A strong PRIAN-PSP alliance would likely harm Viteri's PSC and to a lesser extent Correa. With Pachakutik's continuing fragmentation, indigenous votes will probably be spread among various candidates, undermining their potential power as a unified bloc behind any single candidate. BROWN