AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH LUCIO GUTIERREZ

UNCLAS QUITO 001707 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EC SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH LUCIO GUTIERREZ ¶1. (SBU) Summary: After appearing in constitutional court to defend his right to run in upcoming elections, Gutierrez met with the Ambassador on July 12. Gutierrez summarized the legal charges against him, seeking to show their arbitrary nature. While the charges are obviously politically motivated, Gutierrez's own is responsibility for the illegal dissolution of his country's supreme court makes it hard for the international community to rally to his cause. The constitutional court is expected to decide on Gutierrez's case on July 18 and will likely base its decision on political calculations. Gutierrez feels he would win if allowed to run, and did not discuss other options if the court rules against him. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Gutierrez appeared in constitutional court the morning of July 12 as part of the final appeal process of the charges against him that have currently barred him from the presidential elections and otherwise asserting any of his political rights. As part of his efforts to garner support against what he (rightly) regards as a process much more about politics than law, he is visiting the ambassadors of "friendly nations" to lay out his case. He met with the EU ambassadors on July 11; we agreed to meet with him the following day. Former Gutierrez Trade Minister Ivonne Baki brokered the meeting - the Ambassador's first with Gutierrez, and attended along with a Gutierrez assistant. The meeting was held at the residence with the DCM also attending. ¶3. (SBU) Eschewing any small talk, Gutierrez launched directly into a rambling and repetitive summation of the legal case(s) mounted against him. Reading excerpts from electoral and constitutional provisions and other documents he had brought with him, he sought to show the legally baseless and arbitrary nature of the charges. His argument, if longwinded at more than one hour, was compelling. The constitutional court had not reached a decision that morning, instead postponing until next week. He said his problems were the result of a personal and political vendetta against him led by Social Christian Party (PSC) chieftain Leon Febres Cordero, who controls the court. Baki noted that PSC operative Xavier Neira is known to have intervened to have one of the judges at a previous stage of the case move to maintain the charges for spurious procedural reasons. ¶4. (SBU) Following the long presentation, Gutierrez relaxed a bit and briefly talked about current politics. He did not address any "Plan B" (such as the rumored scenarios of having his brother run in his place, or allying with PRIAN and PRE behind a single consensus candidate) should the court rule against him, as expected. He asserted that he was the only candidate attracting large crowds, and showed videotapes on a laptop of various rallies from around the country to prove his point. If allowed to run, he is certain that he would win. He stressed his own responsible management of the economy while president, his support for an FTA and repayment of foreign debt, in contrast to the positions of the current rival contenders. ¶5. (U) The constitutional court is expected to reconvene on July 18 to make its decision on Gutierrez's case. The court's seats were doled out by congress on a party basis; it is generally assumed that the decision will be based on political calculations, with each party deciding if Gutierrez's candidacy would help or hurt that of their own party. Gutierrez needs five of the nine court magistrates to vote in his favor in order to run. Currently there is one magistrate affiliated with Gutierrez's Patriotic Society Party (PSP),one Roldosista Party (PRE) magistrate, and two magistrates affiliated with Alvaro Noboa's PRIAN party who are expected to vote in favor of Gutierrez. However, the votes of the five PSC-affiliated magistrates will be decisive. Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Lucio Gutierrez is undoubtedly the victim of trumped up charges and legal abuse. But it's hard for the U.S. and other members of the international community to champion the cause of the same man who arbitrarily, illegally dissolved his country's supreme court while in office. Although vilified by the elites and most of the middle class, he does retain significant popular support. Whether as a candidate or not, he will be a factor in the upcoming elections. JEWELL