NOBOA DROPS OUT OF PRES. RACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 001681

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: NOBOA DROPS OUT OF PRES. RACE

Classified By: PolOff Vanessa Schulz for reason 1.4 (b&d)


1. (U) Summary: Alvaro Noboa, Institutional Renewal Party
of National Action (PRIAN),withdrew from the presidential
race on July 9, citing low showings in the polls. PRIAN
deputy Vicente Taiano told us his party would either seek an
alliance or support an independent, and ruled out the
possibility Noboa's wife Anabella Azin would run. Meanwhile,
the party elected a new national director, Jorge Cevallos,
who called for an August 6 party assembly to announce who the
party would support for president. Social Christian Party
(PSC) presidential candidate Cynthia Viteri has yet to
announce a running mate, yet Alfonso Espinosa, a popular
journalist, is rumored to be a possible choice. End Summary.

Noboa Drops Out Of Race
--------------


2. (SBU) PRIAN party candidate Alvaro Noboa withdrew himself
from the presidential race on July 9. The banana magnate,
one of Ecuador's wealthiest individuals, had run in the past
two presidential elections, making it to the second round
both times but losing first to Jamil Mahuad in 1998, then to
Lucio Gutierrez in 2002. Noboa cited the unlikely prospects
of being able to form a governing coalition in congress,
underscored by low showings in the polls, as the cause for
his withdrawal. PRIAN deputy Vicente Taiano denied the move
was related to the recent alien smuggling scandal involving
PRIAN congresswoman Sandra Sandoval. Taiano told PolOff on
July 10 that Noboa had withdrawn for the sake of
"governability", believing that while he had a good
possibility of winning, if elected, the strong resistance
against him would lead to his early ouster.

PRIAN Names New National Director
--------------


3. (SBU) The PRIAN party held an assembly on July 9 to elect
a new national leader, Jorge Cevallos Macias, a deputy from
Manabi province. Cevallos announced that the PRIAN would
support a presidential candidate for the October elections,
who would not necessarily be a member of the PRIAN party.
Taiano confirmed this to us, saying the PRIAN party was
looking for a possible alliance or supporting an independent
candidate. He said the PRIAN would not support someone from
within their party for the presidency. Taiano told us that
Anabella Azin, Noboa's wife, who was mentioned as a possible
replacement, was not an option.

Populist Alliance In The Works?
--------------


4. (SBU) Party leaders have not ruled out an alliance with
ex President Gutierrez' Patriotic Society Party (PSP) and/or
Abdala Bucaram's Ecuadorian Roldosista Party (PRE),both of
which are still lacking a strong presidential candidate.
Former Gutierrez Trade Minister Ivonne Baki told the DCM
today that the three parties would be meeting tomorrow to
advance their talks toward backing a consensus candidate.
Baki herself is one of the possible contenders.


5. (U) According to Cedatos polling firm, Noboa's
withdrawal will cause a 10 percent increase in the percentage
of undecided voters. Some speculate center-right,
coastal-based and moderately populist PSC candidate Viteri
may receive most of Noboa's support along the coast. Leftist
candidate Rafael Correa could also receive some of the votes.


Viteri Expected To Announce Running Mate Soon
--------------


6. (SBU) Cynthia Viteri, PSC presidential candidate, has yet
to announce her running mate. Viteri had said the
announcement would be made after the World Cup finals which
occurred on July 9. Press also confirmed what Mauricio Pozo
-- former Gutierrez Finance Minister -- told the Ambassador
privately, that he would not be Viteri's running mate.
Currently the person most mentioned as Viteri's likely choice
for running mate is Ecuavisa television channel news anchor
Alfonso Espinosa de los Monteros. Espinosa is a respected
journalist, who is originally from Ibarra, capital of the
Sierra province of Imbabura. Monteros could help boost
Viteri's approval in Quito, currently in the single digits.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Noboa's unexpected withdrawal has left the PRIAN
party scrambling for a new election strategy, which may
include a populist alliance. A PRIAN-PRE-SP alliance, with
the right candidate, would be a significant factor in the
electoral calculus. If the PRIAN fails to build a strong,
acceptable alliance, the PSC party's candidate Viteri could
capture more coastal support. But we also remain concerned
that leftist Correa could capture a significant percentage of
Noboa's votes.
JEWELL