FM CARRION URGES USG SIGNAL ON ATPDEA RENEWAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 001590 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL EC SUBJECT: FM CARRION URGES USG SIGNAL ON ATPDEA RENEWAL REF: A. QUITO 1547 ¶B. QUITO 1588 Classified By: PolChief Erik Hall for reason 1.4 (b&d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Ecuadorian FM Francisco Carrion told the Ambassador on June 27 that he hoped the USG would positively signal support for extension of ATPDEA benefits to support regional economic stability and "keep Bolivia in the fold." He was far from certain that an oil refining deal would be finalized with Venezuela, hopeful instead for Chilean cooperation to exploit Occidental Petroleum's former oilfields. President Alan Garcia will visit Quito next week, and Carrion downplayed the significance of his own upcoming visit to Havana, to sign accords on ports and cultural cooperation. He shared personal views on the presidential campaign, warning that dark horse candidate Rafael Correa would "deliver Ecuador to Chavez," if elected. End Summary. ¶2. (U) The one-on-one lunch meeting, hosted by the Ambassador at her residence, came at our request, as part of an ongoing private dialogue. ATPDEA/FTA -------------- ¶3. (C) Carrion expressed concerned about the need for a USG signal on ATPDEA renewal. The Ambassador said that prospects remained difficult but said no decision had been taken and counseled patience. The U.S. Congress is entering a campaign period, when local issues are likely to distract attention from international trade agreements. Carrion expressed understanding of U.S. domestic political realities, but emphasized that the petition by the Community of Andean Nations deserves a response signaling the USG position. This would help keep Bolivia "in the CAN fold." ¶4. (C) Carrion said he understood chances for renewal of FTA talks were low during the remainder of the Palacio administration, which for him made a favorable signal on ATPDEA all the more important. The flower export sector was planning a visit to Washington to promote ATPDEA renewal with U.S. Congressional contacts. Carrion offered to visit Washington himself, or receive a high-level USG emissary, if that would be helpful. The Ambassador told Carrion it would be premature to visit at this time, absent a clearer path forward on pending issues. Venezuela Oil Deal Not Done -------------- ¶5. (C) Carrion said he does participate on the GOE's new committee of ministers convened to decide how to manage Occidental Petroleum's former Block 15 oilfield, but confessed to having no technical expertise in this area. His view was that a strategic alliance on exploitation with Chile would be desirable from a foreign policy standpoint. The parastatal Petroecuador was riddled with in-fighting and corruption, and would be unable to manage the resource without outside assistance. Carrion expressed doubt that the prospective refining deal with Venezuela's PVDSA would be finalized. ¶6. (C) The Ambassador reminded Carrion that the USG was looking for a positive signal that the GOE would participate in the Oxy arbitration and let him know she had made that point to President Palacio as well (Ref A). He made no strong commitment but suggested, as did the President, that in the end the GOE would take part. Peru, Colombia Election Results Positive -------------- ¶7. (C) Carrion said he was pleased by the Uribe victory in Colombia; he considered Colombian VP Francisco Santos Calderon, whom he met when Santos was in exile in Spain, to be a friend. Carrion was also enthusiastic that Colombian FM Carolina Barco would stay on, which was great for Ecuador's delicate relations with its northern neighbor. ¶8. (C) Carrion also waxed enthusiastic about Jose Antonio Garcia Belaunde, Peruvian president-elect Garcia's rumored choice as foreign minister, whom Carrion met when Garcia Belaunde served in Quito. Carrion confirmed that President Garcia would be visiting Quito sometime during the week of July 3 (likely on July 6, President Palacio had told the Ambassador). Upcoming Travel to Cuba and Asia -------------- ¶9. (C) Carrion said he would travel to Indonesia and India, departing Quito on July 17, to expand Ecuador's commercial horizons. Prior to that trip, he would visit Havana on a long-planned trip, which had been postponed several times. During the visit he would sign accords on port development cooperation and culture. "Please do not read too much into this," he asked the Ambassador. The trip is not meant as a political signal to the U.S., and should not be interpreted as such. The Ambassador used the reference to note that Palacio's public remarks about being a "friend of Castro" during the recent visit of Cuban VP Carlos Lage (Ref B) were certainly no help in regenerating goodwill towards Ecuador in Washington. Election Campaign--No Fan of Correa's -------------- ¶10. (C) Turning to electoral issues, Carrion lamented the weakness of the presidential field and predicted that Leon Roldos and Alvaro Noboa would make the second round of presidential voting. Carrion discounted any possibility of remaining as minister under either man (there had been rumors he might have prospects of staying under Roldos),noting new presidents normally bring their own foreign policy team. ¶11. (C) Carrion did not discount Rafael Correa's potential as a spoiler, and warned that Correa "would be a disaster," calling his former Cabinet colleague "irresponsible and incompetent." Carrion complained that Correa's impetuous actions as finance minister with respect to Spanish commercial contracts had threatened Ecuador's bilateral relationship with Spain when Carrion was serving as ambassador to Madrid. A Correa victory would lead Ecuador into the open arms of Hugo Chavez, he said, "and that is not what I want for my country." Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) With many factors influencing the ATPDEA decision, the Ambassador sought to dampen GOE expectations for USG action in the near term. In the interim, we are not encouraging high-level political visits, which could generate unrealistic expectations. Carrion's antipathy for Chavez seems sincere. Despite his denials, we suspect Carrion, through his links to the democratic Left, may still harbor ambitions to stay on in a Roldos government. JEWELL