2006-2007 NEW HORIZONS UNCERTAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 001037 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2014 TAGS: MARR MOPS SNAR PTER PGOV EAID EC SUBJECT: 2006-2007 NEW HORIZONS UNCERTAIN REF: A. QUITO 1307 ¶B. QUITO 1368 ¶C. QUITO 1399 Classified By: Jarahn Hillsman, Reasons 1.4 (b&d) ¶1. (C) Summary: After reviewing the history of the last planned New Horizons exercise canceled at the eleventh-hour in 2004, and taking into account the current political situation, this Embassy recommends that the Department and SOUTHCOM consider postponing the 2006-2007 New Horizons humanitarian exercise for political reasons, and revisit the issue again in 2007, for possible execution in 2008. We remain concerned that 2006 presidential elections, chronic political instability, and growing nationalistic rhetoric against USG interests in Ecuador might again derail successful execution of the exercise. Ministry of Defense and Foreign Affairs officials agree informally that the issue should be deferred for the next government, entering office in January 2007. End Summary. Background -------------- ¶2. (C) GOE eleventh-hour concerns over public perception of armed U.S. military personnel in Ecuador and their potential connection to Plan Colombia in 2004 forced the Embassy to recommend cancellation of the New Horizons 2004 exercise planned for Loja province. The GOE insisted that the 350 SOUTHCOM combat engineers would need congressional approval to enter Ecuadorian territory armed, and Congress was certain not to approve. SOUTHCOM officially canceled the exercise on May 5, 2004 (Ref A,B,C). ¶3. To gauge GOE willingness to host a New Horizons exercise, we have informally engaged MOD and MFA officials on this issue. MOD Urges Postponement -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Although supportive of a New Horizons humanitarian mission to Ecuador, Minister of Defense Oswaldo Jarrin strongly suggested that we consider rescheduling planning to 2007 and execution in 2008. Recognizing that presidential and congressional elections scheduled for late 2006 will likely bring considerable changeover within the GOE, MOD officials believe reengaging under the new administration would be more effective. MFA Positive on New Horizons -------------- ¶5. (C) MFA Director General for Border Relations with Peru Jorge Maldonado also suggested to PolOff that we postpone planning for the exercise until after the new government takes office. Maldonado believes the exercise could be designed to complement Ecuador's bilateral cooperation with Peru and said he would coordinate with MFA U/S for National Sovereignty Ambassador Diego Stacey once the proposal is formally received. Embassy Recommends Delay -------------- ¶6. (C) The political climate for a cooperative exercise has worsened since the New Horizons cancellation in 2004. The current government is inherently weaker than Gutierrez'. As a result, the Palacio government is hostage to sovereignty sensitivities and likely to seek any excuse to cancel. The high visibility of a New Horizons mission to Ecuador and its potential perceived linkage to Plan Colombia could be politicized in this election year. Given these concerns, the Embassy recommends that the Department and SOUTHCOM delay the 2006-2007 New Horizons, revisiting the proposal again in 2007 after the new government has had time to establish itself. JEWELL