KOSOVO: ACHIEVING CONSENSUS ON ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRISTINA 001075 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR DRL, INL, AND EUR/SCE, NSC FOR BRAUN, USUN FOR DREW SCHUFLETOWSKI, USOSCE FOR STEVE STEGER VIENNA FOR BRAD BELL E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2016 TAGS: KDEM PHUM PGOV EAID UNMIK YI SUBJECT: KOSOVO: ACHIEVING CONSENSUS ON ELECTIONS Classified By: COM TINA KAIDANOW FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Kosovo will hold central and local elections next fall under a new post-status electoral system. Results of our initial canvassing of Kosovo's political parties, elections experts and public opinion polling reveal a general consensus on the need for open lists, retention of a gender requirement, and direct election of mayors. Many Kosovars also appear to favor separate central and local elections, though our feelings differ on this issue. While Kosovars are eager for elections that will make more transparent both local and central political representation, there are conflicting views on the question of Kosovo-wide versus multi-district parliamentary elections. Achieving consensus among Kosovo's main political parties is our top priority; consequently, we will not advocate a particular electoral model except insofar as the Ahtisaari settlement requires certain elements be included in a Kosovo election law. END SUMMARY. ELECTIONS TIMING ¶2. (U) By UNMIK regulation, Kosovo holds local municipal elections every four years, and central elections every three. In June 2006, the previous SRSG, Soren Jessen-Petersen, postponed municipal elections scheduled for autumn 2006. According to the decision, municipal elections should be held within a window of no earlier than three months before and no later than six months after the UN Security Council makes its determination on Kosovo's final political status, but in no circumstances later than October ¶2007. Elections for members of the Kosovo Assembly should be held in fall 2007 when the mandate of the current Assembly expires. These deadlines, of course, may be altered by the provisions of the Ahtisaari settlement, but as of now they stand unchanged. ¶3. (U) USOP canvassed political party leaders, international electoral experts, and others to determine trends in electoral preferences. We spoke with Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK)'s Minister Ardian Gjini and caucus leader Gjylnaze Syla; Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK)'s Central Elections Committee (CEC) delegate Blerim Grainca; Reform Party (ORA)'s caucus leader Teuta Sahatqija and spokesman Ylli Hoxha; Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK)'s CEC delegate Xhelil Pajaziti, PDK women's caucus leader Flora Brovina, and MP and former Prime Minister Bajram Rexhepi; OSCE Elections assistant director Ovidiu Criau; the elections expert from the KIPRED think tank Leon Malazogu; and International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) chief of party Dickson Bailey. OPEN LISTS ¶4. (C) To this point, the OSCE has run Kosovo's elections and all have been judged to comply with international standards for fairness. They have been conducted, however, based on closed lists developed by central party bosses with little input from party rank and file. Open candidate lists enjoy significant local support here. Kosovo civil society views open lists as an essential component of electoral systems. Reforma, a broad NGO coalition movement, advocated for open lists in the central elections of 2004, although in the end UNMIK decided on closed lists in order to protect gender representation. Some sitting politicians support it as well: Ardian Gjini, AAK Presidency member and Minister of Environmental and Spatial Planning, privately told us the democratic change offered by open lists would benefit Kosovo, even though it would not benefit him personally since his relationship with AAK party head Ramush Haradinaj would otherwise secure him a high position on a closed AAK list. Gjini has appealed for the international community to require open lists in the final status agreement; otherwise, according to him, Kosovo Assembly members will never back a system that threatens their seats. In our private discussions with other members of the Assembly, however, we heard support for open lists. PRISTINA 00001075 002 OF 003 ¶5. (SBU) Some parties have started to consider how to conduct more democratic elections using open lists and proportional representation. Under a possible open list scenario, parties would submit lists of candidate names, one-third of whom would be women, chosen at their party convention; representatives drawn from throughout Kosovo would participate in the conventions. If political parties provided candidates for all 100 available Assembly seats, the ballot could be dauntingly long -- a logistical hurdle but not a deal-breaker. Each voter would choose their preferred party candidate, and parties would receive Assembly seats proportionate to the sum of their candidates' share of all the votes. Seats would then be assigned within parties starting with the individual candidate who received the most votes. In case of a tie, the party leadership would decide who takes the seat or, alternatively, the candidate ranking higher on the party list (as determined at the convention) would be entitled to it. SEATS FOR WOMEN ¶6. (SBU) Gender representation can be preserved in an open list system simply by stipulating every third party delegate be female. This would mean women could receive seats in place of men who received more votes. To alleviate the vote disparity, a multiple-vote method could be used -- voters could be allowed to vote for multiple candidates on the theory that a voter unwilling to spend his only vote on a female candidate might be willing to cast his second or third vote for a woman. The downside could be increased under-voting and risk of spoiled ballots, if voters mark more than the maximum number of candidates allowed. ¶7. (C) Multi-voting may in fact be unnecessary. According to a recent Index Kosova survey, 72 percent of Kosovars are in favor of giving seats to women even if they do not receive the most votes. Both PDK and ORA have party by-laws that require gender representation -- 25 percent and 30 percent, respectively -- within the party. A few male representatives of LDK, AAK, and PDK expressed dissatisfaction with the 30 percent gender set-aside, but other male and all female representatives from each of these parties support it. AAK caucus leader Gjylnaze Syla even advocated increasing it to 40 percent in line with the practice in some Scandinavian countries. Elections experts support the set-aside, the multi-party Election Forum kept it in their (now defunct) draft law on local elections, and the Ministry of Local Government's latest draft election law includes it as well. DIRECT ELECTION OF MAYORS ¶8. (C) We heard no objections to direct election of mayors, a plan Kosovars in the Index Kosova survey find appealing and democratic. The change will require legislation to re-distribute local powers in order to balance an executive mayor against a legislative municipal assembly. Direct election of mayors has the added bonus of potentially hindering Belgrade's control of newly decentralized Serb municipalities. LOCAL AND CENTRAL ELECTIONS: SEPARATE BUT EQUAL? ¶9. (SBU) The question remains whether to conduct municipal and central elections on the same day. Kosovars with whom we spoke were doubtful of the utility of such an arrangement; they thought the money saved by holding local and central elections on the same day would not be worth the increased complexity and possible public confusion. Objections to merged elections ranged from local issues getting short shrift, a open list Kosovo-wide central elections ballot being unwieldy enough on its own, and not wanting a post-status Kosovo,s first elections to fail, to the fact that direct mayoral elections will already require separate mayoral and municipal assembly ballots. ¶10. (C) However, our view on simultaneous local and central PRISTINA 00001075 003 OF 003 elections is more positive. Arguments in favor of holding them the same day include saving the estimated 500,000 euros needed to run separate elections and the chance for greater turnout. The latter is especially true among Kosovo Serbs who will be voting to keep municipal officials elected in 2003 and the exciting possibility for Serbs in northern Mitrovica and enclaves in southern Kosovo to elect local officials for the first time. There is also a strong argument to be made that holding one set of elections shortly after status would have the disadvantage of plunging Kosovar Albanian parties into heated pre-election rivalry just at the time that their cooperation is needed on implementation of key settlement provisions. THE DISTRICTING QUESTION ¶11. (C) The current draft law written for the Ministry of Local Government by a districting proponent from an election NGO foresees seven districts. Elections experts strongly favor a multi-district system, and the survey found that 57 percent of Kosovars (97 percent of those surveyed were Albanian) feel that dividing Kosovo into electoral districts for Kosovo Assembly elections would provide better representation for their local interests and concerns. For their part, political leaders we spoke with did not express strong feelings either way, and appeared to be waiting for an indication from us as to whether Kosovo will be districted. ¶12. (C) Many note, however, that there is currently no good statistical basis on which to divide Kosovo into electoral districts. There has not been a census for years and the civil registry and voters lists have not been updated to take into account population movements. Proponents of organizing Kosovo as one district point out that it would not require massive voter registration, as any sort of districting would. Having many districts could also disadvantage smaller parties whose voters may be spread throughout Kosovo. These parties might lose seats or fail to be represented in the Kosovo Assembly at all, even though the small, liberal-minded ORA party told us recently they are confident they would do well in any district system. COMMENT: OUR PRIORITIES ¶13. (C) In a November 24 meeting with Dickson Bailey, IFES head in Kosovo and KIPRED's Leon Malazogu, author of the current draft election law, COM emphasized our two main priorities. First, election planners should work closely with us and the International Civilian Office (ICO),as well as the OSCE, which will lead discussions on the election law with the Kosovars. Second, unified political support for an electoral plan vastly outweighs other considerations, since it will be critical to keep the political parties working together throughout the pre-status and immediate post-status phases. ¶14. (C) While preferences among the political parties have yet to be fully articulated, it may well end up that cross-party consensus on a single Kosovo-wide district would be easier to achieve for these first post-status elections; the system could be changed as political parties mature and consolidate. (A planned census in 2008 could also provide the empirical basis for a re-districting scheme for future elections.) One district would also more readily allow for a vibrant and effective opposition in the Assembly, as a check on any ruling coalition. In any event, our bottom line is clear: we must avoid an ugly political battle over the conduct of elections during the transition process. We will encourage parties to come to consensus, and take into account any settlement provisions that have an impact on elections, through their planned OSCE-guided working group. END COMMENT. ¶15. (SBU) U.S. Office Pristina clears this cable in its entirety for release to U.N. Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari. KAIDANOW