SOUTH AFRICA MEDIATOR VISITING BURUNDI AND TANZANIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 003889 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2016 TAGS: PREL SF BU SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA MEDIATOR VISITING BURUNDI AND TANZANIA REF: A. DAR ES SALAAM 1508 ¶B. BUJUMBURA 765 Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Catherine Kay. Reasons 1.4(b ) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. The South African Facilitator of the Burundi Peace Process, Safety and Security Minister Charles Nqakula, will travel to Burundi and Tanzania September 19-20 to "remove obstacles" to the implementation of the September 7 FNL peace agreement. Nqakula will seek international donor funds to support the process, including security for the FNL to return to Burundi. ISS Burundi expert Jan van Eck believes that the FNL peace agreement is "extremely fragile." The FNL is reluctant to return to Burundi because of the recent arrests in the country, and their constituency does not support the agreement. For the FNL peace accord to succeed, van Eck believes that South Africa and Rwanda must apply more pressure on the Government of Burundi to open political space. END SUMMARY. -------------- Nqakula Visiting Burundi and Tanzania -------------- ¶2. (U) The Facilitator of the Burundi Peace Process, South African Safety and Security Minister Charles Nqakula, will visit Bujumbura September 19, and Dar es Salaam September 20. DFA Great Lakes Envoy Kingsley Mamabolo will accompany Nqakula. According to the South Africa Government press release, Nqakula will meet with the Government of Burundi and the Paliphehutu-FNL to discuss implementation of the September 7 cease fire agreement (Ref A). According to Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Burundi expert Jan van Eck, Nqakula will focus on the "obstacles" to implementing the agreement timetable, particularly the return of the FNL to Burundi. ¶3. (C) Department of Foreign Affairs Burundi desk officer Rasheeda Adam told PolOff September 18 that Nqakula will also meet with international donors in Bujumbura to seek funds to support the peace accord. In particular, he will request resources to fund the FNL return to Burundi, particularly their security protection. It is not clear whether a direct approach to the USG is planned. -------------- Regional Technical Teams Met in Pretoria -------------- ¶4. (C) South Africa hosted a meeting of the regional "technical teams" to support the FNL agreement on September 15, according to DFA's Adam and ISS analyst Henri Boshoff. The meeting, attended by the Governments of Uganda, Tanzania, and South Africa, discussed the "logistics" of bringing the FNL back to Burundi, including their security. -------------- - Van Eck Says FNL Agreement "Extremely Fragile" -------------- - ¶5. (C) ISS expert Jan van Eck told PolOff September 18 that he believed the FNL agreement remained "extremely fragile." The FNL signed the accord only after "intense pressure" from Presidents Kikwete and Museveni. The FNL is now "paying the price" with its constituency, van Eck suggested, since they signed an agreement without receiving anything in return. The FNL is now trying to sell the agreement to their supporters with little success. The FNL remains extremely reluctant to go back to Burundi, especially given the recent arrests of regime opponents, and van Eck doubts that the South African mediators will be able to convince them. ¶6. (C) Van Eck said that several sources told him that Presidents Museveni and Kikwete are increasingly concerned about the internal situation in Burundi, particularly the recent arrests and rising tension. Van Eck believes that Museveni and Kikwete want to resolve the FNL "problem" as soon as possible, so the GOB will no longer be able to blame the FNL for the internal political problems. Ending the FNL PRETORIA 00003889 002 OF 002 rebellion will allow the region to focus on the increasingly problematic behavior of the Burundian Government, van Eck suggested. ¶7. (C) The key to implementing the agreement, according to van Eck, is pressure on both sides, but particularly on the Government of Burundi. He believes that the South Africans have significant influence, as does the Government of Rwanda. Uganda and Tanzania have little to no influence over the Burundi regime. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) South Africa has invested substantial financial and personnel resources in the FNL peace process and is committed to ensuring it succeeds. Developing a plan to provide security for the FNL leadership so they feel comfortable to return to Burundi is likely a key part of their strategy for implementing the agreement. South African security forces guarded the Burundian parties during the lead-up to the Burundi elections. We believe Pretoria will propose a similar plan for the FNL return and will seek international funding for its initiative. Bost