SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER APRIL 13 2006

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001548 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S/MTABLER-STONE; AF/EPS; EB/IFD/OMA USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/MAC/AME/OA/DIEMOND TREASURY FOR OAISA/RALYEA/CUSHMAN USTR FOR COLEMAN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN ETRD BEXP KTDB PGOV SF SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER APRIL 13 2006 ISSUE ¶1. Summary. Each week, Embassy Pretoria publishes an economic newsletter based on South African press reports. Comments and analysis do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the U.S. Government. Topics of this week's newsletter are: - Interest Rates Unchanged; - Manufacturing Production Slows in February; - Reserve Bank Slows Reserve Accumulation; - Global Investors Taking a Long View Term of SA; - Mid-Sized Business Survey Results on Trade; and - March Trade Activity Improves. End Summary. Interest Rates Unchanged -------------- ¶2. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left its repurchase rate unchanged at the April 12-13 Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Citing strong consumer demand, credit growth, and rising international oil prices as continuing threats to inflation, SARB Governor Tito Mboweni expected the inflation outlook to remain within its targeted range of 3%-6% until 2008. Mboweni noted that CPIX inflation excluding fuel increased 3.3% in the first two months of 2006, close to the lower end of the targeted range. Expected inflation should peak just below 5% in the first quarter of 2007 and then decline to 4.6% throughout 2008. According to the latest inflation survey conducted by the Bureau for Economic Research, CPIX should remain below 5% until the end of 2008. The Monetary Policy Committee perceived more risks towards future increased inflation, although with little current evidence, left interest rates unchanged. The latest Reuters poll of economists found all polled expected no interest rate change. Source: Reuters and SARB, Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee, April 13. Manufacturing Production Slows in February -------------- ¶3. Manufacturing production grew 3.8% in February, slower than January's growth of 5.8%, primarily due to slower monthly growth in the basic iron and steel and metal products, non-metallic mineral products, and the motor vehicle and parts industries. February is the second consecutive month of slowing manufacturing production growth, although both January and February 2006's y/y growth came in higher than January and February 2005's growth of 3.3% and 2.6%, respectively. On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, output declined by 0.8%. In the three months to February, manufacturing grew 2%. After growing by 5.6% in the third quarter 2005, the manufacturing sector declined by 0.3% in the fourth quarter, with 2005 yearly growth at 3.5%. Manufacturing accounts for 16% of GDP. Source: Reuters, Statistics SA P3014.2, April 11; Business Day, April 12. Reserve Bank Slows Reserve Accumulation -------------- ¶4. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) slowed its reserves accumulation in March as the rand slightly weakened. Economists expect reserves to increase moderately over the next few months. Gross reserves reached $23 billion in March, an increase of $398 million, and the international liquidity position, or net reserves, rose $517 million to $19.5 billion. Foreign exchange reserves increased to $20.6 billion, from $20.2 billion in February. Analysts expect increased reserves accumulation in April as the rand strengthened briefly to below R6 to the dollar in the first week of April, buoyed by a stronger euro and a gold price trading at 25-year highs. The rand weakened slightly during March as it averaged R6.20 per dollar compared to February's 6.12. However, according to Stanlib Asset Management economist Kevin Lings, South Africa still has a relatively low level of reserves compared to most emerging economies. The SARB has not indicated a target level for reserves, but rather that they will continue to build reserves when it is appropriate. A higher gold price during March increased SARB's accumulation of gold reserves to $2.3 billion and the gold price rose to $586/oz, from $557/oz in February. Gold now accounts for 10% of total reserves. Source: PRETORIA 00001548 002 OF 002 Reuters and Business Day, April 10. Global Investors Taking a Long Term View of SA -------------- - ¶5. According to South African financial analysts, global investors are beginning to diversify their investments in South Africa and taking a long-term view of South Africa's growth prospects. According to Standard Bank Group economist Goolam Ballim, long-term investors are investing funds in a range of assets through financial instruments, rather than directly putting funds in direct investment projects. South Africa's depth and liquidity of its financial markets as well as macroeconomic stability and developed legal infrastructure encourages global investors to invest funds with a buy and hold strategy. Both Ballim and Ian Cruickshanks, head of Strategic Research at Nedbank, explained that the recent stability of the rand is being supported by the strength of gold and other commodities. Contributing to possible weakening is a sharp fall in the differential between local and offshore interest rates, which makes rand-based fixed interest investments less attractive to foreigners. At the end of 2002, South Africa's repurchase rate was at 13.5%, while the U.S. federal funds rate was 1.25%. Now the interest rate differential is 2.25%, with the South African repurchase rate at 7% and the U.S. federal funds rate at 4.75%. According to Bloomberg, the gap in yield between South African 10-year bonds and the equivalent U.S. treasuries is near its narrowest since 1997. Because of improved growth prospects, lower South African interest rates increased earnings in the equity market, encouraging flows between asset classes rather than out of South Africa. Cruickshanks did not expect an interest rate rise at the Reserve Bank's monetary policy meeting in April, but believed it should come some time this year, barring some unexpected event. Source: Business Report, April ¶11. Mid-Sized Business Survey Results on Trade -------------- ¶6. According to Grant Thornton's 2006 International Business Owners Survey, 61% of mid-sized South African firm owners believed that China's increased trade with South Africa had no impact on current business. However, China was cited as both the biggest threat and opportunity for business over the next two years. The U.S. offered the second largest trading opportunity and Zimbabwe was rated as the second-biggest threat to trade. Only 37% of survey respondents reported that they engaged in international trade, reflecting the regional focus of medium-sized firms. Grant Thornton surveyed 300 companies in South Africa, employing between 50 and 250 workers. Source: Business Report, April 11. March Trade Activity Improves -------------- ¶7. The South African Trade Activity Index (TAI) rose to 56 in March from 50 in February, reflecting a substantial improvement in current trading conditions. March's index rose above 50 for the first time since November 2005, implying expanding trade activity. The South African Trade Management Indices, consisting of the TAI and the Trade Expectations Index (TEI) is compiled by the South African Chamber of Business and sponsored by ABSA bank. The TEI, which measures sales activities for the next six months, decreased slightly in March to 66 from 67 in February. Improvements in current trading conditions were explained by increasing new orders, inventories and supplier deliveries. The slight decline in trading expectations was due to an expected moderation of sales, input costs increasing by more than inflation, inventory levels rising and possible supply constraints. Source: I- Net Bridge, April 11. TEITELBAUM