AGREEMENT ON SPEAKER OF CZECH PARLIAMENT PAVES WAY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000964 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/NCE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ SUBJECT: AGREEMENT ON SPEAKER OF CZECH PARLIAMENT PAVES WAY FOR GOVERNMENT TO RESIGN ON AUGUST 16 PRAGUE 00000964 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY. More than 10 weeks after the deadlocked June 2-3 general election, the five parties in the Czech Parliament have agreed on a Speaker and five Deputy Speakers, allowing the new parliament to formally begin work, and removing one of the key issues that has blocked progress toward the formation of the next government. Current Prime Minister Jiri Paroubek (CSSD) is expected to hand in his resignation on Wednesday, August 16, but will continue to rule until his likely successor, Mirek Topolanek (ODS), finishes putting together a cabinet and a program declaration that have the support of enough parliamentarians to win a vote of confidence. Paroubek and CSSD are already making significant demands on both personnel and policy questions, which could prolong the next stage, and which make it unclear whether Topolanek will even succeed in creating a minority ODS government. END SUMMARY 2.(U) On Monday, August 14, the 200-seat parliament, which is evenly split between the Social Democrats (CSSD) and the Communists (KSCM) with 100 seats on the left, and the Civic Democrats (ODS),the Christian Democrats and the Greens (SZ) with 100 seats on the right, elected Miloslav Vlcek (CSSD) temporary Speaker of the Parliament. He received 174 votes. If Topolanek succeeds in forming a minority ODS government and passes the vote of confidence, Vlcek will resign and Paroubek will become Speaker. If Paroubek is given the second attempt to form a government, and succeeds, Vlcek will resign in favor of an ODS candidate. If the second attempt to form a government also fails, Vlcek will resign before the third attempt, for which the Speaker gets to select the Prime Minister designate. Vlcek, 45, was a member of the Communist Party in the 1980's, and has more recently been the chairman of parliament's budget committee and a member of the board of the state-run debt consolidation agency, which has been troubled by financial scandal. He is more of a politician than an ideologue. ¶3. (SBU) Parliament also elected five Deputy Chairs, including the previous Speaker Lubomir Zaoralek (CSSD), Miroslava Nemcova and Lucie Talmanova (ODS),Jan Kasal (KDU-CSL) and Vojtech Filip (KSCM). It is perhaps significant that just a day before the election in parliament, the heads of the parliamentary clubs for ODS, KDU-CSL, and the Greens all publicly stated their opposition to Filip's candidacy. The fact that he was elected with 101 votes in a secret ballot means that at least one parliamentarian from these parties supported Filip, who is the Chairman of the Communist Party. Some observers are speculating that if the Chairman of the Communist Party can get 101 votes, then a left-of-center government tacitly supported by the Communists could probably also get 101 votes, the minimum required in a vote of confidence, thereby sustaining Paroubek's hopes that he will get a chance to form a government. However, since the vote was secret and part of a larger package that had been painstakingly negotiated, it could also be that an ODS parliamentarian voted for Filip in order to prevent another logjam and to move the process forward, and not out of tolerance for the Communist Party. ¶4. (U) Parliament formally concluded its constituent assembly on August 15 with an agreement on committee structures and numbers. Individual assignments will be discussed on Tuesday, August 29. Both CSSD and ODS want the chairs of the key committees, such as Budget, Security, Defense, Social Policies and Health. In what could be a sign of preparations for compromises, several key committees have been split, opening up the way for both parties to get their share. The previous parliament had a Defense and Security Committee. The next parliament will have a Defense Committee focusing on military affairs and a Security Committee looking into police and law enforcement. Similarly, the Social Policy and Health Committee has been split into two committees, making it possible for one of the two major parties to get the Chairmanship of the Health Committee, and another of Social Policy. The third split involves the previous Committee on Environment and Regional Affairs, possibly opening up more spaces for smaller parties such as the Greens and Christian Democrats. ¶5. (U) The end of the constituent assembly means the previous government can now hand in its resignation, a move that CSSD Deputy Chair and current Labor Minister Zdenek Skromach says will take place at the regular Wednesday session of government on August 16. Nevertheless, Topolanek still has several battles ahead of him, some of which could affect U.S. interests. Paroubek wants a say on every cabinet appointment, and on several key policy issues for which ODS PRAGUE 00000964 002.2 OF 002 and CSSD have considerably different positions. Paroubek has already expressed reservations about Topolanek's choice of foreign minister, Alexandr (Sasha) Vondra, as being too pro-American. Paroubek has also publicly insisted that the issue of an American missile defense facility, which Topolanek supports, be subjected to a popular referendum. Paroubek demands that the government program contains a commitment to a referendum. ¶6. COMMENT. (SBU) The progress in parliament is significant for two reasons. First of all it allows Parliament to actually get to work and begin the considering legislation. Second, it is the first tangible sign of progress in the 10 weeks since the deadlocked election. However, Topolanek's plan for a minority ODS government, arguably the best outcome for U.S. - Czech relations, has a ways to go before it becomes a reality. Paroubek has already blocked Topolanek's first attempt, a plan for a three-party center-right coalition. Paroubek is seeking the right to vet every cabinet appointment in Topolanek's government, a stance that the Christian Democrats and the Greens say would prevent them from supporting a minority ODS government. Paroubek also wants a say on many key issues. There is broad expectation that Paroubek's goal is to stay on as Prime Minister, and is angling to be the one that President Klaus turns to if the first attempt to form a government fails. This means Paroubek has no incentive to cooperate with Topolanek any more than is necessary to keep the process moving forwards towards the first vote of confidence. The vote on the Speaker has finally broken the logjam and allowed the process to move forward, but we are still several steps away from seeing a lasting government emerge. END COMMENT. CABANISS