NEW CZECH PARLIAMENT: FRESHMEN DOMINATE MAIN

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SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV EZ
SUBJECT: NEW CZECH PARLIAMENT: FRESHMEN DOMINATE MAIN
PARTIES

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1. (U) SUMMARY. One half of the next Czech parliament, chosen
in the June 2-3 general election, will be new members. The
Foreign Affairs and Defense Committees lost more than half of
their members, including some very experienced politicians.
The parliament will have more representation by the two main
parties, the Civic Democrats (ODS) and the Social Democrats
(CSSD),increasing the probability of a grand coalition. The
Greens, though the smallest parliamentary party, could still
play a key role if a minority government is formed. Committee
and leadership assignments are still being discussed, with
each of the two main parties claiming a right to the
Speaker's job. END SUMMARY


2. (SBU) Exactly 100 of the 200 members of the next Czech
parliament will be new to their positions. Although most have
some political experience at the municipal or regional level,
they have not participated at the more partisan national
level. More than two-thirds of the CSSD faction, 53 out of
74, will be freshmen. Of the 81 incoming ODS
parliamentarians, 41 are new. The Communists, on the other
hand, have 26 incumbents who were re-elected. Similarly, all
13 of the Christian Democrats were in the previous
parliament. This is a reflection of the proportional system
and the fact that each party puts its rookies in the middle
or bottom of its electoral list. Since ODS and CSSD did
better than expected, many of their freshmen made it to
parliament. By the same token, since KSCM and KDU did worse
than they had hoped, none of theirs did.


3. (SBU A look at the committees on Foreign Affairs and
Defense and Security give some idea of the scale of the
turnover. Of the 19 members in the Defense and Security
Committee, only 8 were re-elected. Three of the committee's
deputy chairmen are gone. In the Foreign Affairs Committee,
the Chairman, two of the Deputy Chairs, and 10 of the 19
members will not be back. Those leaving Foreign Affairs
include some very experienced politicians, such as Chairman
Vladimir Lastuvka, former Foreign Minister Jan Kavan, and
former Defense Minister Vilem Holan. The Defense and Security
Committee will lose CSSD stalwarts Petr Ibl, Radim Turek, and
Milos Titz, among others. Among likely members of the next
Foreign Affairs Committee are Ondrej Liska, a 29 year-old
advisor to the Green Party in Brussels, and Jan Hamacek, the
28 year-old CSSD advisor on international affairs. Hamacek
told poloff June 13 that he thought he would be assigned to
the Foreign Affairs Committee because few parliamentarians
seek the assignment. He explained that it requires foreign
language skills and offers almost no chances to direct the
disbursement of funds. He said he had the backing of Prime
Minister Paroubek for this assignment. His second choice was
a spot on the Committee for EU Affairs. Hamacek also told us
that the new MPs are paid as of June 3, can move into their
offices on June 16, and should be sworn in on June 27, the
first sitting of the new parliament.


4. (SBU) The next parliament will have a higher proportion of
members from the two main parties, ODS and CSSD. The
parliament elected in 2002 had slightly more than half (127
members or 54%) of its members from CSSD and ODS. The new
parliament will have slightly more than two thirds (155
members or 67%) from CSSD and ODS, giving a potential grand
coalition 35 more seats than the 120 needed to make
constitutional changes, such as proposed changes to the
election law. The dominance of the two main parties also
gives a certain mathematical inevitability to some form of
cooperation between ODS and CSSD. As Jan Hamacek of CSSD
explained to poloff June 13, &Both sides are being a bit
stubborn right now. But at the end of the day they have to
talk to each other. Without cooperation, there is not much
they can do.8 Hamacek said that there have been a couple of
phone calls between Topolanek and Paroubek, the two party
chiefs, but no formal approach to discuss cooperation has yet
been made.

5.(U) The Greens, although the smallest party in parliament
with only six seats, could play the role of kingmaker in
coalition talks, and later on as the conscience of the
legislature, since they are not anchored on either side of
the political spectrum. The new Green MPs are younger then
the average parliamentary age of 48 and have had influential
experiences in Europe. Most speak English and at least one
other European language. Chairman Martin Bursik was described
reftel (Prague 427) The other five parliamentarians are
Katerina Jacques, Ondrej Liska, Premysl Rabas, Olga Zubova
and Vera Jakubkova. Jacques, 35, has been the Director of
the government,s Office for Human Rights and Equal
Opportunity. After graduating from college, Jacques studied
in Berlin, where she met her French husband, Christian

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Jacques. The couple later lived in Strasbourg before she
returned to Prague. Liska, 29, has been working in Brussels
as an advisor on Regional Development and EU Structural Funds
for the Green Party in the European Parliament. Liska has
published a book on the role of Czech underground churches
during the communist era. He was the Director of an NGO that
promoted Czech-Austrian Dialogue, and worked for a foundation
that put on annual seminars on global issues and human
rights. Rabas, 42 is a zoo director, a former president of
the nation's union of zoos, and an expert in endangered
species. Jakubkova, 41, is the co-founder of an NGO and the
Director of a center that provides environmental education to
children. Zubova, 46, is the owner of an art gallery, a
promoter of the arts, and an activist for the preservation of
natural and cultural sites. The Green Party members will add
a dash of pro-environment, pro-Europe flavor to the new
parliament and could provide a voice against the abuse of
power, if they are not marginalized altogether.

6.(U) The Greens are the only party to have achieved gender
parity. Three of their six parliamentarians are female. The
Communists Party comes in second at 30%. The two main
parties come in at 12% for the Social Democrats (CSSD) and
11% for the Civic Democrats (ODS). Overall, there will be 31
women in the next parliament (15%),which is down slightly
from the 34 in the previous parliament. This is consistent
with the prevailing belief that politics at the national
level is a dirty, underhanded, unethical undertaking that is
inappropriate for women. It is also another sign of the
disconnect between parliament and the public.


7. (U) The vote broke down along clear geographic lines, with
CSSD coming first in the eastern Moravian half of the country
and ODS winning in the western Bohemian regions, with the
exception of the Usti region, which has 15% unemployment and
has been a traditional stronghold for left of center parties.
In the Usti district, PM Paroubek only narrowly defeated
Usti mayor Petr Gandalovic (ODS). Gandalovic's strong showing
has boosted his position in the party and could help him
become the next Foreign Minister.) If ODS forms the next
government with the Christian Democrats and the Greens, the
coalition will have 63 parliamentarians from Bohemia and only
37 from Moravia. The two parties on the left, the Social
Democrats and the Communists, in contrast have 56 seats from
Bohemia and 44 from Moravia. In general, Moravia has higher
levels of unemployment, lower levels of education and more
Catholics. Bohemia on the other hand, has lower unemployment
and more residents in the mold of self-reliant Protestants. A
right-of-center government will play to the western half of
the country and promote entrepreneurship, fees for patients
and students. A left-of-center government would be expected
to address the social concerns of Moravians. A grand
coalition would have difficulty satisfying either side and
would be more fragile as a result.

8.(U) One of the main questions to be resolved before the
anticipated first session of parliament is the Speaker's job.
The job is powerful enough within parliament itself. But it
has additional appeal for the two main parties, since the
Speaker chooses the person to form a government if the first
two attempts fail. Topolanek said June 10 that he thought ODS
should get the Speaker's post and that Miroslava Nemcova,
party Deputy Chair and also Deputy Speaker in the outgoing
parliament, would be good for the job. ODS fears that if CSSD
gets the post, the party will exploit the Speaker's powers
during coalition negotiations. Jan Kasal, Deputy Chair of
the Christian Democrats, said June 10 that his party could
support a CSSD Speaker if CSSD could guarantee it would not
abuse the power during talks on the new government. Zdenek
Skromach, CSSD Deputy Chair, said his party was sticking to
its position that it deserves to have the Speaker's job. The
parties are not in agreement on the number of Deputy Speaker
slots either, with some favoring five and some six.
Originally there were six positions, but when Deputy Speaker
Hana Marvanova (Freedom Union) left politics in September
2003, her position was left vacant. Topolanek has said that
KSCM should not get a Deputy Speaker post, though it has one
now. Martin Bursik would like one slot for the Greens. CSSD
would like to have the Speaker and one Deputy, as would ODS.


9. (SBU) Retired Chief Justice and co-author of the Czech
Constitution Vojtech Cepl told poloff June 12 that he
borrowed from the German constitution when he gave the
Speaker the power to choose the person for the third attempt
at a coalition government. He explained that their research
showed that by this stage some parliamentarians are ready to
break party ranks and support a coalition led by their
opponents. He said they even enshrined in law the right of

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parliamentarians to defy their parties. Cepl said the June 10
petition for which CSSD demanded that all 74 new MPs pledge
not to support an ODS-led minority government was unlawful
and undemocratic.


10. (SBU) COMMENT: If ODS succeeds in forming a minority
government with KDU-CSL and the Green Party, half of the
coalition's 100 parliamentarians will be new to the national
legislature. If a grand coalition is formed, 95 of the 155
parliamentarians in the partnership will be new to
parliamentary politics. This will present great
opportunities for Embassy training programs. It will also
mean the new members will need some time to learn the job.
This will give added influence to the much smaller circle of
already influential veterans, particularly in the less sought
after committees on foreign affairs and defense. It is still
too soon to tell what, if any, significant changes this large
group of newcomers will cause, or whether they will simply
add to the uncertainty of the early stages of the
post-election period.
DODMAN