CZECH ELECTIONS: DECISIVE VICTORY UNLIKELY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000574 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ SUBJECT: CZECH ELECTIONS: DECISIVE VICTORY UNLIKELY REF: A. PRAGUE 284 ¶B. PRAGUE 427 ¶C. PRAGUE 482 ¶D. PRAGUE 516 ¶E. PRAGUE 535 ¶F. PRAGUE 549 PRAGUE 00000574 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. There are a number of trends, and idiosyncrasies in the Czech political system that will influence the June 2-3 general election, and politics for the foreseeable future. These include: (1) the semi-outlaw status of the Communist Party, which holds more than 20% of the seats in Parliament; (2) the long-term demographic trends that make the traditional kingmaker, the Christian Democrats, increasingly less relevant; (3) the rootless, fragile existence of small liberal parties; (4) the under-representation of women in politics, which is one sign of a broader public disgust with politics; and (5) the electoral rules used in the Czech proportional representation system. The result has been political parties that are not strongly connected to voters, we well as a series of weak and unstable governments. The elections next month are unlikely to break this trend. END SUMMARY ¶2. (U) COMMUNISTS. The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) is the only party from the days of totalitarian rule in Central Europe to have retained the word "communist" in its name. Antipathy towards the Communists since 1989 has meant that mainstream parties would not cooperate with them at the national level. But this political isolation -- which many Czech reformers thought would accelerate the Communists' demise -- has coincided with growing support for the party among voters. In the 1996 elections KSCM received 22 seats (in the 200-seat lower chamber),24 in the early elections in 1998, and 41 in the 2002 vote. ¶3. (SBU) One consequence has been that mainstream parties had reduced maneuvering room to form a government: in the current parliament, a majority government of 101 seats had to be formed from the 159 non-communist seats, meaning 64% of the non-communist seats were required. This has contributed to the instability of recent coalitions, two of which collapsed since the 2002 elections. Prime Minister Paroubek sees a solution in eventually bringing a reformed Communist Party into the political mainstream (with Paroubek's political calculation likely being that a reformed Communist Party would in the end differ little from his CSSD, allowing the Social Democrats to eliminate KSCM as a rival). But for the coming electoral term, the KSCM remains unreformed and therefore will not be a formal coalition partner for any party, including CSSD. While this will once again mean reduced maneuvering space to form a majority coalition, Paroubek has altered the playing field by putting on the table the option of a minority CSSD government with KSCM support -- a step that he believes would support his goal of reforming the KSCM and eventually bringing them into the mainstream. ¶4. (U) CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS. One of the small parties that has played the role of kingmaker through most of the post-communist era is the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL). But this party is increasingly out of step in this overwhelmingly secular nation. The Czechs, unlike their neighbors in Poland, have the lowest rate of church attendance in the EU; they have the highest rate of divorce and the lowest rate of childbirth in the EU. The Social Democrats recently passed, with the help of the Communists, a law permitting the registration of same-sex partnerships (subsequently vetoed by the President). The Christian Democrats, on the other hand, want more state aid for churches, closer ties with the Vatican, a ban on same-sex partnerships, and numerous other measures that have very little popular support. In the last two elections, the party received just under 10%. But in recent pre-election polls, the Christian Democrats are drawing between 4 and 8%. The decreasing support for this traditional kingmaker means that the major parties will be less able to rely on their seats when putting together majority governments. ¶5. (U) LIBERALS. The inability of Czech liberals to organize themselves into a sustainable political organization is another factor that makes it difficult to form lasting, predictable, reliable coalitions. The current liberal party in parliament with 10 seats, the Freedom Union (US-DEU),is the third member of the current coalition. It barely registers in pre-election polls, and no one expects the party will survive this election. Its demise is largely of its own making. Early this year, when it was clear that the party would not get the 5% needed for entry into parliament, or even the 3% needed for post-election reimbursement, party leaders held a meeting to decide what to do. Some among the PRAGUE 00000574 002.2 OF 002 party said it didn't make sense to waste money on a hopeless election and urged the party to "sit this one out," thereby saving funds for the local and Senate elections in the fall. However, party chair and current Justice Minister Pavel Nemec and others decided to give the election a try, but on a completely different tack. The "New Freedom Union" was launched, and now the coalition member solicits support from protesters, anarchists, graffiti artists, consumers of marijuana, and those who just "want to live a little or completely differently." ¶6. (U) Two emerging extraparliamentary parties, the Greens (SZ) and the Independents/European Democrats (SNK/ED),have constituencies similar to the voter base of the original Freedom Union, namely well educated, young, urban liberals. Freedom Union's demise will make it easier for these two parties to cross the 5% threshold for entry to parliament, though it's too early to say for certain whether those parties will split the vote, or the Greens will capture all the attention, as recent polls have indicated. The Greens are polling between 4 and 10%. The European Democrats received more than 250,000 votes in the June 2004 elections for the European parliament, an election Freedom Union did not enter. A similar turnout for SNK/ED would put them over 5%. But, particularly in light of the inability of any liberal party to survive since 1989, the real question is whether either of these new parties, largely untested at the national level, will prove to be reliable coalition partners. ¶7. (U) WOMEN IN POLITICS AND OTHER POPULAR DISAFFECTION. Although the Czech Republic is very progressive on many issues, women are still dramatically under-represented at the highest levels of government. Two explanations are offered. The first is that men don't want women in positions of power. The second is that Czech politics is a dirty, crooked business and that emancipated women, with a wide range of choices, would rather do other things. In the current government, the Prime Minister and the five Deputy Prime Ministers are all men. Only two of the seventeen cabinet members are women (Education Minister Petra Buzkova and Informatics Minister Dana Berova). Buzkova is leaving politics this summer, though she might run later for the Senate. Berova,s ministry will probably be eliminated. Each of the 14 regional governors is a man. The major cities all have men as mayors. The result, or perhaps the underlying cause, is that politics is perceived as horse-trading conducted by men in smoky back rooms, and not something determined by the publicly-made electoral choices of the public, half of which is female. This is one element of larger popular dissatisfaction with politics, particularly at the national level, which is fed as well by repeated corruption scandals. ¶8. (U) ELECTORAL RULES. Another element creating a distance between voters and their elected officials is the technicalities of the Czech electoral system. Voters receive party lists in the mail days before the election. They take the lists to the voting booth, place the list of their chosen party into an envelope, and drop the envelope in the ballot box. Lists for all other parties are dropped in an adjacent trash bin. The voters choose a party, not a candidate. The electoral lists are drawn up by local party officials. There is no primary system in which voters can have a say in determining their candidate. Moreover, the president is elected by the members of Parliament, not directly. Senators are the only national officials directly elected. ¶9. (SBU) COMMENT. None of the factors outline above are new (with the exception of PM Paroubek's new stance towards the KSCM). We see no signs that the upcoming elections will produce results that will give the Czech Republic a government that is either stronger than recent governments have been, or one that is better able to connect with its citizens. Rather, as will be discussed further in septel, we expect a close election that will be followed by many weeks of closed-door negotiations between party leaders and the President, the immediate result of which will probably be only greater popular disgust with the political process. DODMAN