CZECH ELECTIONS - THE FADING STIGMA OF COMMUNIST

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000535 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL EZ SUBJECT: CZECH ELECTIONS - THE FADING STIGMA OF COMMUNIST TIES REF: A. PRAGUE 284 ¶B. PRAGUE 427 ¶C. PRAGUE 482 ¶D. PRAGUE 516 PRAGUE 00000535 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The stigma of having some form of association with either the pre-1989 Communist Party of Czechoslovakia, or with its post-1989 successor, seems to be fading. A growing number of Czechs, though still in the minority, do not seem to mind the Communist Party. One major turning point came when Vaclav Klaus was elected president in 2003 with the help of the previously shunned Communist Party. During the four-year term of the current government, which will end after the June 2-3 general elections, Communists were appointed to several official positions that would have been impossible in earlier years. In addition, more ex-Communists are running in this election than four years ago, particularly on the ticket of the ruling Social Democrats (CSSD). The Communist party also has 33 non-party-members, many of them in their twenties and thirties, on its ticket for the upcoming election, showing its ability to attract new blood and survive as more than a party of protest voters. One of the anomalies of the Czech political system is that 15-20% of the population supports a party that has been unable to participate in government at the national level. If the current trend continues, and signs are that it probably will, it is only a matter of time before this party, with its generally anti-American views, gets a role on the national political stage. END SUMMARY ¶2. (U) The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM),the successor party to the pre-1989 Communist Party of Czechoslovakia, has generally been shunned by Czech mainstream parties, despite being one of the largest in the parliament. KSCM leaders have openly stated that their goal is to gain full legitimacy by the 2010 elections, i.e., be accepted as a possible coalition partner. Over the past four years the party passed several milestones on the way to that goal. The most prominent of these was the appointment of Vojtech Filip to the position of Vice-President of parliament,s lower house after the 2002 elections, in which the Communists came third with 18.5% of the vote. The lower house, the Chamber of Deputies, has a president and five vice-presidents, who are appointed based on the share of the votes each party receives. In the past, the Communists were not given one of vice-presidents slots even though they came in third in the 1996 elections and the 1998 elections, as they did in 2002. In the local elections held in the fall of 2002, communists were elected to municipal coalitions in several cities in the north and east of the country, where they have their traditional strongholds. Although the great majority of local councilors, more than 50,000, are non-partisan, the Communists have more local officials than any other party. They have 3,671, compared to 2,999 for the Civic Democrats (ODS) and 1,771 for the Social Democrats (CSSD). The 2002 local elections also saw the first communist mayor elected to one of the major cities, in this case, Karvina. In the June 2004 elections to the European Parliament, the Communist Party came in second and took six of the 24 Czech seats. ¶3. (U) Beginning in 2005, after Prime Minister Paroubek came to power, several Communists were appointed to state-run boards. In October 2005, Ludmila Brynchova was appointed to the Supreme Audit Office, the Czech equivalent of the GAO. In December 2005, Petr Brany became the first Communist representative on the National Property Fund. In March 2006, Miroslava Mouckava, then-editor of the Communist Party publication, Halo Noviny, became a member of the Advisory Board for the Czech Press Agency (CTK). In March 2006, Communist MP and shadow interior minister Zuzanna Rujbrova joined the supervisory board of the Czech Consolidation Agency, which handles debts incurred by the state in the past. These positions are fairly influential, without being terribly visible, and are seen as a way of easing the party back into power. ¶4. (U) The daily newspaper Lidove Noviny ran an article on May 17 listing the number of candidates for the June 2-3 election who were members of the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia before 1989. Not surprisingly, 95% of the candidates on the KSCM ticket were also members of the party before the fall of communism in 1989. The percentage of pre-89 party members is the same as it was in the election four years ago. The figure for the Social Democrats is 40%, up from 32% four years ago. In 11 of the 14 electoral districts, CSSD has ex-communists at or near the top of the ticket, where they are almost certain to be elected. In Zlin, for example, ex-communists occupy the first three slots. PRAGUE 00000535 002.2 OF 002 ¶5. (U) It is also worth noting the number of relatively young people, many of them just entering politics, who are running as non-party members on the communist ticket. Nationwide, there are 33 non-party members running under the communist banner. The majority of these candidates are too far down the lists to be elected. However, in Southern Moravia, Dr. Vojtech Adam (55) is third on the list. In Hradec Kralove, current parliamentarian Vlastimil Dlab (54) and technician Alois Havrda (59),second and third on the list, stand reasonable chances of being elected. In the Moravia-Silesia district, fully 1/3 of the candidates are non-party members and most of these are under 40. The group includes schoolteachers, housewives, local mayors, and students. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT. In the early 1990s, attempts to ban the Communist party were rebuffed with the argument that it would wither away on it own accord. Today, more than sixteen years after the end of communist rule, the party shows no sign of doing so. Public opinion polls indicate the KSCM is likely to retain its position as the third largest party in the new Chamber of Deputies. The few steps to put Communists into positions of authority, and the open cooperation between CSSD and KSCM in passing legislation over the past year, have not provoked a significant backlash. That is not to say that there is no debate. Numerous NGOs and many politicians from both the center-left and center-right make it a point of honor that they will not deal with the Communists; private campaigns exist to try to keep alive the memory of abuses by the pre-1989 regime. But election campaigns based on anti-communist themes (this has been an element of campaigns by the center-right Civic Democrats and Christian Democrats) do not appear to have been particularly successful. With KSCM occupying a large bloc of votes in the next parliament, we expect that, no matter what the composition of the next government, the stigma against dealing with the Communists will continue to erode, and many if not all of the mainstream parties will work with them in a more open manner. This will likely mean more party representatives on regulatory bodies and in other positions of authority, and could see the KSCM achieve their goal of being accepted for formal participation in a government after 2010. ¶7. (U) Note: Septels will discuss further the questions raised in State 80072. CABANISS