SCENESETTER FOR U/S DOBRIANSKY'S VISIT TO PRAGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRAGUE 001450

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EUR/NCE FOR ERIC FICHTE, G FOR PAUL LETTOW

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON EZ
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR U/S DOBRIANSKY'S VISIT TO PRAGUE

Classified By: Classified By: Ambassador Richard Graber
for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).


1. (C) Summary: Czechs marked the 17th anniversary of the
Velvet Revolution in November. As you will see during your
visit, the country has embraced a pro-transatlantic foreign
policy, with the Czech government and NGOs playing a
significant role in efforts to promote democratic
transformation in Cuba, Belarus, Iraq, and elsewhere. Czech
military reform is well advanced, and the Czech Republic is
an active contributing member of NATO. The Czechs are
becoming more confident operating within the EU, particularly
on signature issues of democracy and human rights. The Czech
economy is performing very well, with 6.1% growth in 2005 and
strong investment inflows, despite incomplete structural
reforms and persistent corruption. The June parliamentary
elections resulted in a 100-100 left-right split that has,
for more than six months, prevented the formation of a stable
government, but has not yet significantly harmed the economy.
Bilateral relations are healthy, with the question of the
Czech desire to be part of the visa waiver program the only
irritant. The USG may offer to base some or all of a U.S.
missile defense system in the Czech Republic. Although the
Czech government has signaled it would welcome such an offer
(especially for just the radar portion of the system),recent
polls suggest that the majority of the Czech public is still
skeptical about hosting a missile defense base in the
country. End summary.

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A small transatlantic friend
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2. (C) With the exception of the Czech Communist party, there
is broad agreement across the Czech political spectrum about
the importance of transatlantic relations. Likewise, with the
notable exception of President Klaus, most Czechs broadly
support the EU. Like other Central European states, the CR
does not believe the two are incompatible. Czechs appreciate
transatlantic ties as a way to balance their relations with
Brussels, as well as for the values that they respect in U.S.
foreign policy. They have made NATO their clear priority. As
a small country, the Czechs are well aware of the need to
prioritize their foreign and security policy activities, and
have identified goals that broadly support USG objectives.
They have embraced military reform and specialization within
NATO, distinguishing themselves for their Nuclear,
Biological, and Chemical Weapons (NBC),medical, and special
forces capabilities. They have maintained a small but steady
presence in Iraq, with nearly 100 military police training
Iraq forces near Basra (extension of the deployment for next
year is expected to pass in December). They give priority
focus to the Balkans, where the Czechs have an average of a
total of 600 troops in Bosnia and Kosovo. As described below,
Czech government assistance strengthens civil society in the
Balkans, Iraq, Cuba and other countries in transition.

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Czechs know something about transformational diplomacy
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3. (C) One legacy of the forty-year struggle against
Communist dictatorship, and then of the long tenure of Vaclav
Havel as president, is that support for democracy and freedom
is a core principle of Czech foreign policy. Foreign Minister
Alexandr (Sasha) Vondra is an ardent supporter, as is Petr
Kolar, the Czech Ambassador to the U.S. The Czech MFA has
established a "Transformation Cooperation Unit" within the
ministry that funds programs to support civil society and
democratic opposition in ten priority countries, including
Cuba, Belarus, Iraq, the Balkans, Moldova/Transnistria and
Burma. The MFA cooperates closely in this effort with Czech
NGOs, notably People in Need (PIN),the largest NGO in
Central Europe. PIN's former director, Tomas Pojar, is
currently Deputy Foreign Minister for Bilateral Relations.
Beyond their direct assistance, the Czechs use their
diplomacy to influence EU and UN decisions to support reform,
most famously their efforts to strengthen the EU common
position on Cuba. Former President Havel supports the
government effort through his own work on Cuba and Burma, and
by sending inspirational messages through his organization
International Committee for Democracy in Cuba (ICDC) (which
will host a conference on Cuba in Berlin in Spring 2007).


4. (U) The Czech support for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
(RFE/RL) is another tangible example of their pro-democracy
policies, and their shared belief in the value of spreading
access to independent media to troubled regions in the Middle
East, Russia, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. At a meeting
in May 2006, the Czechs presented USD $1 million to Secretary
Rice to help with the move of RFE/RL to a more secure
location in Prague.


5. (U) We are coordinating with the Czechs through USAID
(e.g., jointly supporting independent radio broadcasts to
Belarus),but can always do more. For example, the Czechs
have expressed interest in cooperating with the United States
in an existing PIN capacity training program for Iraqi
journalists, NGOs and civil officials, located for security
reasons in Jordan.

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Visas
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6. (U) The only notable bilateral irritant is the visa issue.
Citizens in all but one of the countries that were in the EU
before the expansion of May 2004 (the "old" EU),can travel
to the U.S. for short business/tourist visits without visas
under the U.S. Visa Waiver Program (VWP). Americans can
travel to the Czech Republic for short stays without visas.
But Czechs and citizens of most of the "new" EU member states
must apply for a visa for travel to the United States. Czechs
believe they deserve VWP status as an EU and NATO member, and
as a coalition ally. The visa refusal rate is currently
around 10%, the lowest in the region but well above the 3%
required for entry into VWP. Unfortunately, this has become a
charged political issue, with both the Foreign Minister and
Prime Minister using tough language in the press to address
what they see as asymmetrical visa relations. The Czechs are
working with the other new EU states to lobby the U.S.
Congress to achieve a political solution to the problem. The
Czechs are also pressing the EU to take a tougher line with
the USG in negotiations on the issue.


7. (U) President Bush announced in Tallinn on November 28
that he would work for modification of the VWP to facilitate
the inclusion of the new EU member states. Czech FM Vondra
welcomed the announcement, and announced that he expects the
Czech Republic to be included in the VWP within the next two
years. Ambassador Kolar said more work is needed and plans
more intensive lobbying efforts in Congress. In the meantime,
the Embassy will continue to look for ways to make the
experience of applying for a visa as pleasant and efficient
as possible, and encourage the Czech government to work
towards achieving full compliance of all current or future
VWP requirements.

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Missile Defense
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8. (C) The U.S. is exploring the possibility of locating a
base to provide missile defense for the U.S. and Europe in
the Czech Republic and/or Poland. The issue has proved
divisive in Czech politics, particularly since it evokes
memories of Soviet missiles that were forcibly stationed in
the country during the Cold War. The ODS party under the
leadership of current Prime Minister Topolanek continues to
advocate Czech participation in the missile defense system.
Foreign Minister Vondra is also an outspoken proponent.
However, there is significant opposition to missile defense
from the Communist-run "No to Bases" campaign, and from
politicians who would seek to turn public discomfort with the
possible presence of foreign troops into short-term political
advantage. Former Prime Minister Jiri Paroubek, of the
center-left CSSD party, has made repeated public calls for a
referendum on the issue of a missile base. (Most politicians
privately agree that a referendum on missile defense will
never happen.) However, Paroubek has privately expressed
support for a U.S. radar facility (as opposed to the
interceptors),and stated that a radar base would not require
a referendum. Recent polling data has shown that a slim
majority of Czechs still oppose missile defense in the
country, although there is no opinion data on the possibility
of a radar. The Pentagon is expected to make a decision on
where to base the two missile defense elements before the end
of the year.

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Internal Politics
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9. (C) The June 2-3 general election resulted in a deadlocked
parliament with the 200-seat chamber split evenly between the
left-of-center parties with 100 seats and the center-right
parties with 100 seats. The strongly pro-American Civic
Democrats (ODS),which came in first with 81 seats, have been
unable to form a government that can pass a vote of
confidence. On October 3 its first attempt fell three votes
short of the 101 needed. ODS Chairman and acting Prime
Minister Mirek Topolanek is currently making his second
attempt. The Czech constitution allows three attempts and
does not impose deadlines on the process. There is no way of

predicting how long the current uncertainty will continue.
Whatever solution is devised for the standoff in Parliament,
it is unlikely to lead to a government with a mandate strong
enough to pursue the needed but controversial reforms. Early
elections are still possible.

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Talking Points During Your Visit
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10. (U) During your visit, you may wish to focus on the
following points:

(a) Promotion of Democracy and Human Rights:

-- We applaud Czech efforts to foster democratic
transformations in Cuba, Iraq, Belarus, Burma, and the
Balkans.

-- We thank the Czechs for their generous humanitarian aid
and development assistance in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, and
Kosovo.

-- We appreciate the Czechs principled and consistent
advocacy for human rights within the UN Human Rights Council
and the UN General Assembly Third Committee.

-- We are grateful the Czechs have hosted Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty for 10 years, and for the Czechs'
generous donation of $1 million toward the relocation of
RFE/RL to its new location in Prague.

-- We support these efforts and will continue to coordinate
closely with the Czechs.

(b) Military Cooperation: We appreciate Czech support for
U.S. and NATO efforts in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Kosovo, and
our continued cooperation in the field of non-proliferation.

(c) Missile Defense: The USG has not made a decision on
where to locate the proposed Central European missile defense
assets. However, if and when an offer is made to base assets
in the Czech Republic, the ultimate decision on whether to
host a base will be up to the Czechs.
GRABER