CZECH REPUBLIC: CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS' SLIDE TOWARDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 001333

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH REPUBLIC: CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS' SLIDE TOWARDS
IRRELEVANCY COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACT ON POLITICAL SPECTRUM

Classified By: Acting Political-Economic Counselor Karen Reider
for reasons 1.4 b+d


1. (C) SUMMARY. Separate sources within the Christian
Democrats (KDU-CSL) speak of a party in crisis with no
resolution in sight. Results from the October 20-21 local and
Senate elections, in addition to an October 23 opinion poll,
show the party continues to lose support and could before
long fall below the 5% threshold needed for entry into
parliament and national viability. The fear of being banished
to the political wilderness could lead some KDU-CSL
parliamentarians to consider breaking ranks and supporting a
minority Social Democrat (CSSD) government, even if that
government at times relied on the Communists. The party will
hold an emergency congress December 7 to pick new leadership
to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of former party
Chair Miroslav Kalousek, but as of late October, it is not
even clear who might run for the top spot. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) The Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) have been losing
support for years. The average age of party members is in
the low 60s. The party has very little support in the
western half of the country, including in the capital Prague.
And its most recent leader, Miroslav Kalousek, is such a
controversial figure that other parties are apprehensive
about dealing with him, and party members themselves have
demanded his resignation over his somewhat desperate and not
entirely open negotiations with CSSD Chair Jiri Paroubek
about a minority CSSD government that would rely on Communist
support. KDU-CSL is defending seven Senate seats in the
voting that is taking place in two rounds, October 20-21 and
October 27-28. The party made it to the second round runoffs
in six districts, all in the eastern half of the country, and
has a reasonable chance in two to four of the districts. One
of those races features Vsetin mayor Jiri Cunek (KDU-CSL),
who leads his ODS opponent by 20 percentage points. A strong
win by Cunek would make him a serious candidate for the role
of party leader.


3. (U) KDU-CSL also did poorly in the local elections, coming
in fifth nationwide with 5.76%. Before the elections, the
party only had one Mayor at any of the nation's largest 24,
or statutory cities. That was Miroslav Tetter and he chose
to run for the Senate. (Tetter trails his ODS competitor by
more than 20 percentage points and is almost certain to lose
in the second round). In Prague, where KDU-CSL had one
member of the city council, the party came in sixth, with
less than one percent of the votes and will have no
representation in the capital's main municipal assembly.


4. (C) The party will hold an extraordinary congress to
choose new leadership on December 7. Poloff spoke October 18
with Petr Rybar, General Secretary of the Christian Democrats
and October 6 with Jaroslav Orel, former KDU-CSL
parliamentarian, advisor to former Foreign Minister Cyril
Svoboda (KDU-CSL) and member of the party's organization in
Prague, about the congress. Rybar conceded that even he has
no idea who might run for Chairmanship of the party. He
doesn't think former Chair Kalousek will run. He doesn't
think Former Deputy Chair Jan Kasal will run. He doesn't
think former Chair and Former Foreign Minister Cyril Svoboda
will run. Stanislav Juranek - Hejtman (Governor) in Southern
Moravia has also been mentioned as a possible candidate for
party chair, but Rybar thinks Juranek would fail because he
initially supported Kalousek's recent negotiations with
Paroubek. Orel explained that Kalousek's fall from grace was
not only caused by his talks with Paroubek, hastily arranged
in the face of an imminent deal between the two large
parties, the Social Democrats (CSSD)and the Civic Democrats
(ODS). According to Orel, an increasing number of party
members has been dissatisfied with Kalousek's style and
leadership. Orel was also uncertain who might take over the
reins of power, saying that many members hope for a repeat of
the "1990 miracle" when Josef Lux, until then a largely
unknown local politician, was selected to lead the party.
Orel also expressed the conviction that all thirteen of
KDU-CSL's parliamentarians would have to be replaced in the
future.


5. (C) Rybar had hoped to win five of the Senate seats the
party was defending and called attention to the financial as
well as political consequences of a more serious defeat.
Parties receive 900,000 Czech crowns (US$41,000)for each
Senate seat they win. A disastrous showing (2-3 seats) will
not only mean the loss of the other seats and the political
influence they bring, but also the loss of income that the
party will need to rebuild, something Rybar admits to being
very concerned about.

PRAGUE 00001333 002 OF 002




6. (C) When asked about the party's views on early elections,
Rybar said that the party is publicly saying it has no
objections to this way out of the current impasse. Privately
he told us early elections would be a "disaster" for the
party. He acknowledged that it is possible the party would
fall below the 5% threshold for entry into parliament and
went on to explain that even under more hopeful scenarios,
such as 6%, the party would probably lose half of its 13
seats in parliament, due to the disproportionate distribution
of seats under the current D'Hondt system. Rybar pointed to
the Greens, who won 6% of the votes in the June election and
only received 6 seats, as an illustration of what would
happen to KDU-CSL in such a scenario. Rybar said that Juranek
(Hejtman of South Moravia),has made statements in favor of
early elections only because he wants to run for parliament
and doesn't want to wait until the next general election in

2010. Rybar believes that Juranek is afraid he will not be
re-elected to a third term as governor and is therefore
looking for another position. Rybar argues that the party
needs at least couple of years to rebuild and consolidate.
For Rybar, any government would be better than early
elections. Orel agrees that the KDU-CSL parliamentarians are
not in favor of early elections, in spite of public comments
to the contrary.


7. (C) When asked for the party's stand on the question of
possibly locating missile defense facilities in the Czech
Republic, Rybar answered that the party is in too much
disarray to have a united position on anything. He said
nobody wants to provide guidance on any controversial issues.
Rybar said that in general, KDU-CSL is inclined to allow a
referendum on the question, but predicted that the
Communist-led bill demanding a referendum, on parliament's
agenda for the session beginning October 24, would be opposed
by many KDU-CSL parliamentarians simply because it was
submitted by KSCM. Vlasta Parkanova, head of the KDU-CSL
parliamentary club, echoed those sentiments when she said
October 24 that she opposed the specific bill put forward by
the Communists and not necessarily the idea of a referendum
in general. Rybar added, however, that if the bill gathers
broader support from members of other parties, he guesses
some KDU-CSL members would go along. The proposal was signed
by two prominent CSSD parliamentarians, Hana Sedivy and
Zdenek Jicinsky. It remains to be seen whether others will
add their support.

8 (C) COMMENT. The Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) have been a
small but significant part of Czech politics for decades. In
the post-communist era, the party played the role of a
centrist kingmaker, shifting left or right with the
prevailing political winds, and helping to moderate the
positions of whichever party they allied themselves to. In
the last two years, the party has joined the Civic Democrats
(ODS) on the right side of the political spectrum, acting as
a counterweight to the traditional leftist parties, the
Communists (KSCM) and the Social Democrats (CSSD). In the
parliamentary elections of 1998, the party received 9% of the
votes. In the 2004 elections to the EU, support was 9.6%.
But by June of 2006 the party's support had slipped to 7%.
An October 23 opinion poll showed that only 4.5% of Czech
voters support the Christian Democrats. If the party
continues to lose support and slide towards the political
irrelevancy that comes with being below the 5% threshold for
participation in parliament, it will leave the political
spectrum less stable and more heavily weighted towards the
extremes. In the short run, it could also leave the two
parties on the left, the Social Democrats and the Communists,
with a slight numerical advantage, though it must be added
that the Communists are on a trajectory similar to that of
the Christian Democrats - sliding support, aging
demographics, and an absence of new inspiring leaders or
fresh ideas. Of more immediate concern, the lack of party
discipline, combined with the fear that the party might
become an extraparliamentary party if early elections were to
be held, or if ODS and CSSD united and changed the election
rules, could lead a few of the party's current thirteen
parliamentarians to consider a deal involving support for an
informal arrangement between the Social Democrats and the
Communists, something that in more secure times has always
been unacceptable. END COMMENT.

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