PRO-AMERICAN CIVIC DEMOCRATS WIN BIG IN CZECH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 001322 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/NCE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ SUBJECT: PRO-AMERICAN CIVIC DEMOCRATS WIN BIG IN CZECH SENATE AND MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS ¶1. SUMMARY AND COMMENT: The October 20 - 21 municipal elections and the first round of Senate elections resulted in a stronger than expected victory for the right-of-center Civic Democrats (ODS),considered the most pro-American among Czech political parties. This will likely strengthen Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek's chances of remaining as party chair when ODS meets for its annual party congress in mid-November. However, what effect the Senate elections will have on political negotiations over the shape of the next government remains uncertain. President Klaus has said he will wait until after the second round of the Senate races (October 27 - 28) before he selects the person who will try and form the next government. Given that the lower chamber of Parliament remains evenly divided between the left and right-leaning coalitions, an ODS-majority Senate will be helpful but not definitive in pushing such priority USG issues as missile defense through Parliament. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. ¶2. ODS VICTORY: With one-third of 81 Senate seats up for election, the right-of-center Civic Democrat (ODS) party achieved better than expected results during the October 20 - 21 municipal and first round of Senate elections. As a result, ODS will have a candidate in 26 of the 27 runoffs in the second and final round of Senate elections October 27 - 28, compared to its main rival left-of-center Social Democrats (CSSD) which will have 11 candidates, the Christian Democrats 6, the Communists 3, and the Greens 2. The ODS caucus currently has 38 of the 81 seats in the Senate, and if they win an additional three seats, ODS will have a commanding majority. Final results of municipal elections showed ODS won 36%, CSSD 17%, Communists 12%, Christian Democrats 8%, and the Greens 4.5%. ¶3. KEY RACES: Two races the Embassy is following closely are those involving Foreign Minister Sasha Vondra, and former White House and State Department official Eliska Haskova Coolidge. Vondra received almost 36% of the vote and will have a runoff against former CSSD parliamentarian Robert Kopecky, who had just under 18% support. Kopecky is far enough to the left to gain significant support from Communist voters, but is not expected to be able to make up the 18% difference. Newspapers are already calling that race in favor of Vondra. Haskova Coolidge also came out on top in the first round, edging out local Susice Mayor Jirina Rippelova (CSSD) by slightly more than one percentage point. Newspapers are predicting that with the support of Communist voters, Rippelova will win a narrow victory in the second round. ¶4. Two prominent members of the CSSD shadow cabinet, Marie Benesova (Justice) and Jiri Havel (Education),did unexpectedly badly, a result that some analysts are interpreting as a reflection of discontent with the government of former CSSD Prime Minister Jiri Paroubek. CSSD is, nevertheless, expected to win five or six seats in the second round of Senate elections. Former Prime Minister and CSSD Chair Jiri Paroubek called on all other parties to unite against ODS candidates in the second round. The Greens and the Christian Democrats rejected the appeal. The Communists are saying they don't want to join the Paroubek initiative, but will support ODS opponents in some races. ¶5. MIXED RESULTS FOR SMALL PARTIES: The Green Party, perhaps reflecting a lack of prominent personalities, is not expected to win any of the 27 Senate seats being contested. However, the party did add a significant number of city councilors, going from a few dozen nationwide to nearly 300, which will help them build for the future. The Christian Democrats are defending eight seats. They made it to the second round in six of the districts and are expected to win three or possibly four seats, a poor showing but not as disastrous as some analysts were predicting. The Christian Democrats also lost the party's only mayoralty at a large city (Ceske Budejovice). The Communists are not defending any Senate seats, are not expected to win any seats, but they do have three candidates in the second round of Senate elections. The party did lose votes in some of the city councils that it had controlled in the past, particularly in areas of high unemployment along the northern border with Poland. ¶6. ODS SWEEPS MUNICIPALITIES: The biggest news in the local elections was the landslide victory by ODS in the capital, Prague. ODS took more than 53% of the votes and is in the unprecedented position of being able to run the city without support from other parties. Some analysts are speculating that ODS might trade seats in the Prague government for concessions from other parties in talks over the formation of PRAGUE 00001322 002 OF 002 the next national government. Current Mayor Pavel Bem (ODS) is being given much of the credit for the triumph, and is consequently seen as a leader whose star is in ascendancy. In a move that is being much analyzed, President Klaus met personally with Bem to congratulate him on his victory. One of the reasons the move is getting so much attention is that Klaus didn't meet with Topolanek to congratulate him on the overall ODS victory. For his part, Bem is saying publicly that he is not going to challenge Topolanek for the party's leadership, but would step forward if an emergency, such as the threat of a Paroubek government, presented itself. ¶7. Nationwide, ODS, at 30.5% improved on its showing in the local elections four years ago by more than 5 percentage points. The Greens, at 4.5% were up more than 3 points over their previous showing. CSSD was up by one point to 17%. The two losers were the Communists, down by one percentage point to 12%, and the Christian Democrats, down by 2 points to 8%. ODS won the polling in 21 of the 24 so-called statutory cities. ODS even edged out the Communists in Havirov, traditionally one of the most pro-Communist localities on the nation. Four years ago, ODS lost to KSCM by seven percentage points in Havirov, 26% to 19%. This year, ODS won a narrow victory, 25.8% to 25.5% ¶8. Turnout for the Senate elections was just over 42%, which is higher than usual for Senate races. This surprised some analysts, who expected the previous four months of political stalemate and mud-slinging to have increased voter apathy. Traditionally, turnout drops significantly for the second round. Turnout for the local elections was just under 47%, slightly below the average for municipal polls. GRABER