CZECH REPUBLIC: ECONOMIC OPTIMISM PREVAILS DESPITE

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRAGUE 001239 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/NCE, EUR/ERA, EB/IFD/OMA, E STAFF DAN MORRISON TREASURY FOR OASIA ANNE ALIKONIS STATE PLEASE PASS USTR LISA ERRION COMMERCE FOR ITA/MAC/EUR MIKE ROGERS NSC FOR DAMON WILSON AND TRACY MCKIBBEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2016 TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD ENRG PGOV EZ SUBJECT: CZECH REPUBLIC: ECONOMIC OPTIMISM PREVAILS DESPITE POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES REF: PRAGUE 1173 Classified By: Pol-Econ Counselor Michael Dodman for reasons 1.4 b+d ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Recent articles in the international press about reform fatigue and political instability in Central Europe have received much attention locally. There is strong consensus among local economists and financial institutions that the Czech Republic's economic situation differs significantly from that in Hungary. The continued appreciation of the Czech Crown against major currencies, low interest rates/bond yields, credibility of Czech monetary policy, and low debt/GDP ratio are key indicators. Czech macroeconomic fundamentals remain sound with no signs of trouble in the short to even medium term, despite the political uncertainties. Fiscal policy remains the greatest vulnerability (reftel) for the medium term outlook, with increasing concerns about the lack of transparency in the Czech budget process. With still no viable government in place four months after the June 2006 general elections, and the 2007 draft budget that violates the Maastricht convergence criteria for the first time awaiting Parliamentary approval, financial markets are keeping an eye on a possible change in the outlook by international credit rating agencies. END SUMMARY ¶2. (U) STRONG MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS: What differentiates the Czech economy from others in the region is its sound macroeconomic fundamentals, and not just in relative terms. According to private sector analysts, Czech economic growth remains robust with GDP growth of 6.1% in 2005, 6.1% forecasted for 2006, and 5% forecasted for 2007. Inflation (CPI) is expected to increase slightly from 3% in 2006 to 3.1 - 3.5% in 2007, mostly due to a rise in administered prices (utilities). While the 2007 inflation forecast remains within the Czech National Bank's (CNB) target band of 3% plus or minus 1%, given that it is towards its upper limit, the CNB raised interest rates by a quarter percent to 2.5% (still the lowest in the EU) on September 27 and is expected to raise another quarter percent in October. ¶3. (U) For the external sector, the trade balance remains positive while the current account deficit has slightly deteriorated from 2% of GDP in 2005 to 3.5% of GDP in 2006. Exports and export-oriented foreign direct investment inflows continue as leading factors of Czech GDP growth, but domestic consumption is taking an increasingly bigger piece of the pie. Czech exposure to foreign currency and "hot money" remains low, as evidenced by the vast majority of consumer loans and home mortgages denominated in local currency unlike other countries in the region. External sovereign debt remains around 36% of GDP, well below the Maastricht convergence criteria of 60% of GDP. ¶4. (U) TROUBLE AT THE FINANCE MINISTRY: On September 29, Finance Minister Vlastimil Tlusty fired long-time First Deputy Finance Minister Janota, based on Janota's public objections to Tlusty's newspaper advertisements about the size of the public debt. In a two-page ad entitled "Information for Citizens of the Czech Republic on the State of Public Finances," Tlusty included a chart showing government debt from 1993 to 2009 ballooning significantly and blaming former Prime Minister Jiri Paroubek for the state of public finances. Janota's name appears below the chart in bold as the source of information, an obvious attempt at giving credibility to the information since Janota is a highly regarded official who has served nine Finance Ministers over a 14 year career at the Finance Ministry in charge of constructing the budget. Janota went on TV objecting to being named as the source and called Tlusty a "liar" and the ads irresponsible for risking alarm by Czech government bond holders. As Janota and financial analysts point out, Tlusty included contingent liabilities from pending law suits in his government debt figures in the ad that are not normally included in the calculation of external debt. ¶5. (SBU) LACK OF TRANSPARENCY: Economists agree that the growing lack of transparency in public finance is the most troubling aspect of current political fumblings. While that lack of transparency thus far has not translated into macroeconomic consequences, economists warn that it could in a course of a "few years." David Marek of Patria Finance noted that the budgetary process was pretty transparency for the 2002 and 2003 budgets, but started to deteriorate, with the 2007 budget by far the worst in terms of transparency. Econoff's own experience in reporting on the 2007 budget (reftel) revealed significant deterioration in the quality of publicly available figures from 2005 to 2006, with a significant gap between the figures quoted to the public (deficit figures below 4% of GDP) versus the figures supplied by Mr. Janota in a private meeting (deficit figures in the 4.2 - 5% range). ¶6. (C) CENTRAL BANK NERVOUSNESS AND DISMAL REFORM PROSPECTS: One of the CNB board members told econoff October 2 that he remains optimistic about the economy except for the political uncertainty. He stressed, however, that even if the political and public finance uncertainties continue, it would take significant and prolonged deterioration before it has impact on the macroeconomic framework. So while he is not worried about the short to medium term macroeconomic outlook, he is worried about the long term implications of the political situation delaying key structural reforms in the labor market, improving government efficiency and transparency, and in education. In the medium term, he admitted that CNB board members were "pretty nervous" about the monetary policy framework because they were now less certain about their expectation of continued nominal appreciation of the Czech Crown. ¶7. (C) CREDIT RATING AGENCY CONCERNS ARE LONGER TERM: The Czech Republic currently has the following sovereign ratings: Moody's A1 with a positive outlook, S&P A2 with a positive outlook, Fitch A2 with a stable outlook. Econoff and poloff met with S&P analysts October 2 during their annual surveillance visit to discuss current political developments and implications for reform prospects. S&P believes the Czech business environment, growth, and external debt position all look strong, and that any problems for the Czech Republic are long-term issues such as pending pension and healthcare reforms. They warned that significant deterioration in the fiscal position may result in a change in the outlook from positive to neutral, and clarified that a "significant" fiscal deterioration would be a deficit in the 4.5 - 5% of GDP range and that their rating outlook was in the six-month to two-year range. When asked how much current political developments would bear on its rating review, they replied that it all depended on how it affects Czech reform prospects. S&P warned that Czech competitiveness was a key consideration in the longer term, pointing out that while Czech labor flexibility is still in relatively good shape, its weakness in education and R&D spending may bear consequence in the future. ¶8. (C) COMMENT: The Czech economy is doing just fine, despite the political uncertainty. Economists generally agree that ODS Finance Minister Tlusty "gets it" in terms of fiscal responsibility, but has to contend with the populist elements of his own party. While it is disappointing that the pro-business ODS seems to be focusing more on how to finance the significant increase in expenditures (through further privatization of the crown jewel electricity company CEZ) rather than cutting them, given the political environment, it is also not surprising. With municipal and Senate elections due at the end of October, and the prospect of early elections in Spring 2007, the lack of fiscal discipline in the Czech Republic is not/not a matter of a lack of know-how but a lack of political incentive. While it is no comfort that no one seems to know how the current situation -- political and fiscal -- will be resolved, at least on the fiscal side, analysts remain optimistic. GRABER