AN INSIDER'S VIEW OF WINSTON DOOKERAN'S PROSPECTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L PORT OF SPAIN 000676

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2016
TAGS: KDEM PGOV TD
SUBJECT: AN INSIDER'S VIEW OF WINSTON DOOKERAN'S PROSPECTS

REF: A. A. PORT OF SPAIN 00488


B. B.PORT OF SPAIN 00253

C. C. PORT OF SPAIN 00405

Classified By: A/DCM, AD MILLER FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) On May 26, Political Chief and Political Officer met
for two hours with Robin Montano, the former Opposition
United National Congress (UNC) Senator who had been fired
earlier in the year by then Opposition Leader Basdeo Panday
as part of the internecine strife within the party. Montano
is a close confidant of embattled UNC Political Leader
Winston Dookeran and sees himself as Dookeran's chief
political strategist and image consultant.


2. (C) According to Montano, the rift between Dookeran and
the Panday supporters on the UNC Executive Council began in
July/August of 2005 when UNC financiers, specifically
International Soccer Federation (FIFA) Vice President Austin
Jack Warner and financial magnate Lawrence Duprey, pressured
Panday to give up his leadership role (likely because of
impending corruption revelations). Panday agreed to hold
elections for the UNC Executive and offered to back Dookeran
for the Political Leader slot, expecting Dookeran to decline
the offer. However, Dookeran was of a mind to accept the
offer, and Montano encouraged him to do so, saying the only
chance the UNC would have of defeating the ruling People,s
National Movement at the next general election was with
Dookeran inside the party. As it turned out, although
Dookeran was elected unopposed as UNC Political Leader,
Panday, who retained the opposition leader spot for himself,
refused to grant Dookeran the power to set the party,s
political agenda, a responsibility assigned to the political
leader by the UNC constitution. Instead, Panday worked
assiduously to marginalize Dookeran.


3. (C) According to Montano, Dookeran's strategy is, for the
time being, to stay within the UNC, in spite of the strenuous
efforts of what he calls &the cabal8 on the UNC Executive
Council to demean him and to distance him from the party,s
decision-making processes. Montano fully backs this strategy
as a means of retaining the support of the traditional UNC
heartland of central and south Trinidad. Accordingly,
Dookeran has been out campaigning in these areas in an effort
to win UNC grassroots voters over to his camp and persuade
them that his &brand" of politics is the only one likely to
bring the UNC into power. According to Montano, the aim is to
gradually raise Dookeran,s profile among these voters and
highlight his strengths as a man of integrity and new ideas,
while gradually separating himself from the entrenched UNC
leadership with its legacy of corruption and divisive
race-based politics.


4. (C) In response, the UNC Executive has recently embarked
on a formal procedure apparently aimed at ultimately removing
Dookeran from the party, a move which Montano said he would
welcome, as it would make Dookeran a martyr and raise his
credibility with that segment of the UNC membership that is
increasingly frustrated by the &old politics8 of Panday and
his friends on the UNC Executive Council. According to
Montano, if and when Dookeran is forced out of the UNC, he
will form a new party based on his vision of a &new
politics8 and on his policy of inclusion rather than
division. Moreover, a Dookeran-led party would be
characterized by a collective leadership rather than by a
Panday-style cult of personality.


5. (C) COMMENT: Although Panday has been sidelined,
following his April 24 conviction for failing to declare a
London bank account, it is clear that he still pulls the
strings in the UNC and that Dookeran is taking a long walk on
a short pier. Since the February 19 "Unity Rally",
Dookeran,s overall speaking style has become sharper and
more engaging, and his message of unity politics is more
persuasive. The new strategy seems to be working, since, by
all accounts, the recent public meetings at which Dookeran
has spoken have attracted large crowds. However, this
apparent support is still soft, and it is not clear if these
voters can actually be counted on to move over to Dookeran
and abandon their traditional party affiliations. Should
Dookeran be ousted from the UNC, a new Dookeran-led party
would signal a revolution in T&T politics: a major party
built around a platform and a vision rather than around a
charismatic leader who appeals to the electors, tribal
instincts rather than to any beliefs they may have about how
to forge a better society. END COMMENT.


AUSTIN