SOLOMON ISLANDS REMAINS TENSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT MORESBY 000185

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/ANP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR CASC BP
SUBJECT: SOLOMON ISLANDS REMAINS TENSE

REF: A) STANTON/EAP E-MAIL B) PORT MORESBY 175

CLASSIFIED BY: Robert Fitts, Ambassador, AMB, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



1.(U) SUMMARY: With the arrival of troops from Australia and New
Zealand, the situation in Honiara is outwardly calm though
palpable tension remains just beneath the surface. Though this
week's violence will be a sharp blow to the economy RAMSI
officials have discounted earlier fears of food shortages.
Foreigners who wanted to leave, largely the Chinese and
temporary residents, have been accommodated on military or
chartered flights.

2.(C) Wednesday's scheduled no-confidence motion vote on the new
government will provide a possible flashpoint. With two
opposition leaders under arrest for involvement in the violence,
the chances of unseating the government appear reduced. Though
clearly operating to restrain violence and enforce the law,
RAMSI and Australia will need to work carefully to avoid the
impression of backing one side against the other. Embassy
endorses a statement of support for RAMSI actions as recommended
ref A. END SUMMARY.

CALM BUT TENSE
3.(C) According to RAMSI officials, new arrivals over the
weekend have upped their military support to two Australian
companies and one from New Zealand. The three are formed into a
self-supporting battalion. That show of force, combined with a
sense of shame in the general population and of exhaustion
amongst the demonstrators/looters have returned normalcy to the
daytime streets of Honiara. A dusk to dawn curfew, strictly
enforced, covers most of the city.

4.(SBU) Solomon Islands police have already arrested two
prominent opposition MPs, Nelson Ne'e and Charles Dausabea, for
inciting the violence. Both represent Honiara and hail from the
island of Malaita. [NOTE: Malaitans make up the majority of
Honiara. Activities of a Malaitan militia, with Dausabea in the
leadership, eight years ago touched off ethnic conflict with the
Guadalcanal population, which brought government to a standstill
and only ended with the 2003 RAMSI intervention.] The police
have arrested another prominent opposition leader and briefly
detained a third opposition MP.

EXPATRIATE POPULATION LARGELY SECURE
5.(SBU) A majority of 400 Chinese displaced in the fighting have
left Solomon Islands. According to reports, some 170 have
arrived in Papua New Guinea and smaller numbers have left for
Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand. The Chinese Ambassador in
Port Moresby traveled to Honiara over the weekend to help
organize the evacuation and press the government, which
recognizes Taiwan, to attended to the safety of Chinese
nationals. Chinese Embassy officials tell us that this was done
at the explicit direction of Beijing.

6.(SBU) Most of the other expatriate evacuees have been people
only temporarily in the country. We are aware of two American
citizens. One, a contractor with AUSAID, returned to Australia.
The other flew to the PRC with his Chinese fianci. Australia and
New Zealand continue to offer seats to interested Americans on
military flights. While we are aware of no one that now desires
to leave, our Consular Agent is in constant touch with the
community and has constructed a phone tree in addition to the
normal warden system to rapidly get out the word should the
situation change.

ECONOMY HAS BEEN HIT
7.(U) Last week's disturbances have destroyed many of the stores
and much of the small industry in Honiara. Observers commonly
quote estimates of the destruction at 75 to 80 percent of the
establishments. The business community has said that 3000
Solomon Islanders have immediately lost their jobs. Presumably
that situation will worsen as the shock spreads through the rest
of the economy. Though most of the old-line Chinese remain, no
one can now say how many of the Chinese evacuees (mostly small
businessmen) will eventually return.

8.(U) RAMSI officials tell us that, despite earlier fears, there
should be no food shortage. Though much of the retail network in
Honiara was destroyed, sufficient stocks of staple foods remain
in warehouses. Local produce markets have reopened and there is
a flow of fish and farm products into the city.

NEXT FLASH POINT
9.(C) The filing of a no-confidence motion on 21 April had
helped to calm the situation and attention was shifted to the

PORT MORES 00000185 002 OF 002


first sitting of Parliament on 24 April to elect the Speaker and
his deputy. The speaker, Former Speaker and Former Prime
Minister Peter Keniloria was returned unopposed. However, the
government and the opposition each had a candidate for deputy.
The opposition succeeded in postponing that election until April
25 as one of its members was in jail and could not vote. [Since
that member will remain in jail and another, Dausabea, was
arrested as the session ended, that objection will no doubt
continue.]

10.(C) Most attention has now switched to April 26 when the
no-confidence motion is to be voted. We understand that current
plans are that the vote will be by oral roll call broadcast on
live radio, forcing all members to declare themselves. In the
initial voting for PM, the first round went to the now
opposition 22 to 17 with 11 voting for a third candidate who was
thus eliminated. The next round awarded the PM's chair Snyder
Rini 27 to 23, leading to charges of bribery and the ensuing
violence.

11.(C) With two members in jail and reportedly being denied
bail, the opposition's chances should be poor. However, the
situation is volatile. One of the original voters for Rini, who
was offered a cabinet job, has moved to the opposition camp.
[Note: though his friends have told our contacts that he did so
under physical threat, he has publicly denied this.]

DELICATE TASK FOR RAMSI
12.(C) The two opposition MPs arrested by the police were
clearly in violation of laws against incitement to violence.
Nevertheless, the police are seen by the public as under the
control of RAMSI [NOTE: Roughly a forth of the police are
members of RAMSI. The commissioner is an Australian police
officer though not formally part of RAMSI. The Deputy
Commissioner is with RAMSI.] RAMSI's actions against riot
instigators will be welcomed by the business community and
rightly supported by the Solomon Islands community which is
alarmed by the resort to violence when all had hoped that was a
thing of the past.

13.(C) Nevertheless, with two votes sidelined, opposition
supporters may be sorely tempted to see RAMSI's actions as the
key that allowed Rini to hold on to an office they charge was
corruptly won. That perception is already in the Honiara air.
One foreigner, with no brief for the opposition, contacted us to
express outrage that, to her observations, RAMSI officers were
protecting the hotel of Tommy Chan while allowing the rioters
free hand among the smaller establishments in Chinatown. [NOTE:
Tommy Chan is a substantial ethnic Chinese businessman who has
long backed the faction which now represented by Rini.]

STATEMENT OF SUPPORT RECOMMENDED
14.(C) Post endorses the proposal ref A for a USG statement of
support for RAMSI and for Solomon Islanders to work together to
build a sustainable peace and foster economic growth and good
governance.
FITTS