SOLOMON ISLANDS REMAINS TENSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT MORESBY 000185 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR EAP/ANP E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/24/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR CASC BP SUBJECT: SOLOMON ISLANDS REMAINS TENSE REF: A) STANTON/EAP E-MAIL B) PORT MORESBY 175 CLASSIFIED BY: Robert Fitts, Ambassador, AMB, STATE. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) 1.(U) SUMMARY: With the arrival of troops from Australia and New Zealand, the situation in Honiara is outwardly calm though palpable tension remains just beneath the surface. Though this week's violence will be a sharp blow to the economy RAMSI officials have discounted earlier fears of food shortages. Foreigners who wanted to leave, largely the Chinese and temporary residents, have been accommodated on military or chartered flights. 2.(C) Wednesday's scheduled no-confidence motion vote on the new government will provide a possible flashpoint. With two opposition leaders under arrest for involvement in the violence, the chances of unseating the government appear reduced. Though clearly operating to restrain violence and enforce the law, RAMSI and Australia will need to work carefully to avoid the impression of backing one side against the other. Embassy endorses a statement of support for RAMSI actions as recommended ref A. END SUMMARY. CALM BUT TENSE 3.(C) According to RAMSI officials, new arrivals over the weekend have upped their military support to two Australian companies and one from New Zealand. The three are formed into a self-supporting battalion. That show of force, combined with a sense of shame in the general population and of exhaustion amongst the demonstrators/looters have returned normalcy to the daytime streets of Honiara. A dusk to dawn curfew, strictly enforced, covers most of the city. 4.(SBU) Solomon Islands police have already arrested two prominent opposition MPs, Nelson Ne'e and Charles Dausabea, for inciting the violence. Both represent Honiara and hail from the island of Malaita. [NOTE: Malaitans make up the majority of Honiara. Activities of a Malaitan militia, with Dausabea in the leadership, eight years ago touched off ethnic conflict with the Guadalcanal population, which brought government to a standstill and only ended with the 2003 RAMSI intervention.] The police have arrested another prominent opposition leader and briefly detained a third opposition MP. EXPATRIATE POPULATION LARGELY SECURE 5.(SBU) A majority of 400 Chinese displaced in the fighting have left Solomon Islands. According to reports, some 170 have arrived in Papua New Guinea and smaller numbers have left for Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand. The Chinese Ambassador in Port Moresby traveled to Honiara over the weekend to help organize the evacuation and press the government, which recognizes Taiwan, to attended to the safety of Chinese nationals. Chinese Embassy officials tell us that this was done at the explicit direction of Beijing. 6.(SBU) Most of the other expatriate evacuees have been people only temporarily in the country. We are aware of two American citizens. One, a contractor with AUSAID, returned to Australia. The other flew to the PRC with his Chinese fianci. Australia and New Zealand continue to offer seats to interested Americans on military flights. While we are aware of no one that now desires to leave, our Consular Agent is in constant touch with the community and has constructed a phone tree in addition to the normal warden system to rapidly get out the word should the situation change. ECONOMY HAS BEEN HIT 7.(U) Last week's disturbances have destroyed many of the stores and much of the small industry in Honiara. Observers commonly quote estimates of the destruction at 75 to 80 percent of the establishments. The business community has said that 3000 Solomon Islanders have immediately lost their jobs. Presumably that situation will worsen as the shock spreads through the rest of the economy. Though most of the old-line Chinese remain, no one can now say how many of the Chinese evacuees (mostly small businessmen) will eventually return. 8.(U) RAMSI officials tell us that, despite earlier fears, there should be no food shortage. Though much of the retail network in Honiara was destroyed, sufficient stocks of staple foods remain in warehouses. Local produce markets have reopened and there is a flow of fish and farm products into the city. NEXT FLASH POINT 9.(C) The filing of a no-confidence motion on 21 April had helped to calm the situation and attention was shifted to the PORT MORES 00000185 002 OF 002 first sitting of Parliament on 24 April to elect the Speaker and his deputy. The speaker, Former Speaker and Former Prime Minister Peter Keniloria was returned unopposed. However, the government and the opposition each had a candidate for deputy. The opposition succeeded in postponing that election until April 25 as one of its members was in jail and could not vote. [Since that member will remain in jail and another, Dausabea, was arrested as the session ended, that objection will no doubt continue.] 10.(C) Most attention has now switched to April 26 when the no-confidence motion is to be voted. We understand that current plans are that the vote will be by oral roll call broadcast on live radio, forcing all members to declare themselves. In the initial voting for PM, the first round went to the now opposition 22 to 17 with 11 voting for a third candidate who was thus eliminated. The next round awarded the PM's chair Snyder Rini 27 to 23, leading to charges of bribery and the ensuing violence. 11.(C) With two members in jail and reportedly being denied bail, the opposition's chances should be poor. However, the situation is volatile. One of the original voters for Rini, who was offered a cabinet job, has moved to the opposition camp. [Note: though his friends have told our contacts that he did so under physical threat, he has publicly denied this.] DELICATE TASK FOR RAMSI 12.(C) The two opposition MPs arrested by the police were clearly in violation of laws against incitement to violence. Nevertheless, the police are seen by the public as under the control of RAMSI [NOTE: Roughly a forth of the police are members of RAMSI. The commissioner is an Australian police officer though not formally part of RAMSI. The Deputy Commissioner is with RAMSI.] RAMSI's actions against riot instigators will be welcomed by the business community and rightly supported by the Solomon Islands community which is alarmed by the resort to violence when all had hoped that was a thing of the past. 13.(C) Nevertheless, with two votes sidelined, opposition supporters may be sorely tempted to see RAMSI's actions as the key that allowed Rini to hold on to an office they charge was corruptly won. That perception is already in the Honiara air. One foreigner, with no brief for the opposition, contacted us to express outrage that, to her observations, RAMSI officers were protecting the hotel of Tommy Chan while allowing the rioters free hand among the smaller establishments in Chinatown. [NOTE: Tommy Chan is a substantial ethnic Chinese businessman who has long backed the faction which now represented by Rini.] STATEMENT OF SUPPORT RECOMMENDED 14.(C) Post endorses the proposal ref A for a USG statement of support for RAMSI and for Solomon Islanders to work together to build a sustainable peace and foster economic growth and good governance. FITTS