ELECTIONS MARK MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN SOLOMON ISLANDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L PORT MORESBY 000154

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/ANP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL BP
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS MARK MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN SOLOMON ISLANDS

CLASSIFIED BY: Robert Fitts, Ambassador, AMB, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b)

CLASSIFIED BY: Robert Fitts, Ambassador, AMB, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b)

1.(SBU) The recent Solomon Islands elections have turned over
half of the seats in Parliament to newcomers, in line with past
elections. Most of the figures we deal with have been returned.
While there will probably be much deal making, the new
government could reassemble most of the same factions as the
old. At first take, the elections mark a very modest step toward
rebuilding national institutions after their collapse five years
ago.

2.(C) The Solomon Islands held April 6 seems to have gone true
to past form in turning out roughly half of the 50 members of
Parliament. The returns for all but two seats now appear final.
While Prime Minister Kemakeza, Finance Minister Boyle and
Foreign Minister Chan were returned, the new faces include some
that are troubling. For example, two new members from Honiara
were members of the Malaitan militia which touched off the
ethnic disturbances which brought most national institutions to
their knees. (One, Charles Dausebea is permanently ineligible
for a US visa for his activities. He is barred from Australia
as well.)

3.(SBU) The eight political parties often command only tenuous
loyalty and 18 of the new parliamentarians are independents, so
the horse trading could be complex. However, the groups that
formed the core of the previous government now claim 17 (AIM)
and 14 (the PM's PAP) seats respectively. While that probably
represents some double counting, it adds up to more than half of
the seat and they so may well be able to stitch something
together in relatively short order. No one thinks any
announcements will be made until after the Easter Holidays,
however.

4.(SBU) Some 50 international observers, including our consular
officer, monitored the election. In their wrap up statement,
the observers termed the elections generally free, fair and
peaceful. They did find minor technical errors but noted that
these were not significant enough to compromise the integrity of
the process. However, there has been a flood of anecdotal
complaints of irregularities which will have to be examined for
merit if/when evidence is produced. These include relatively
large-scale (for such a small place) use of bogus, already dead
names, etc. in the Honiara districts.

5.(C) Comment: While there has been much infighting, there has
been little real politics since the 2003 Australian-led
intervention, RAMSI. Politicians have largely sat the period
out, waiting to see how the situation developed and waiting for
this election. The most important question now for outside
observers will be how the new Parliament works with RAMSI, which
put three ministers from the last government in jail on various
charges. Certainly the three new MPs in Honiara can't be
counted as RAMSI supporters. However, throughout the
countryside, RAMSI remains overwhelmingly supported for having
stopped the violence and restoring civil order. We believe no
conceivable government would buck that tide anytime soon.

6.(C) The Australian government has the largest stake and it's
observers view the election as "an incremental improvement with
a couple of disappointing surprises." We'll second that opinion,
at least until we get a good look at the new government.

FITTS