PRESIDENT PREVAL PREPARES A CAUTIOUS START

C O N F I D E N T I A L PORT AU PRINCE 000851 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR DRL S/CRS SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR INR/IAA (BEN-YEHUDA) TREASURY FOR JEFFREY LEVINE E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2011 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC KDEM HA SUBJECT: PRESIDENT PREVAL PREPARES A CAUTIOUS START Classified By: Ambassador Janet A. Sanderson for reason 1.4(b). ¶1. (C) Summary. President-elect Rene Preval has articulated the broad outlines of an economic and political development plan for Haiti, but has not put himself in a position to launch a detailed set of programs or legislative agenda in his first days in office. USG interlocutors will likely have to wait for clear lines of authority within the administration to emerge. Preval will welcome USG engagement, particularly regarding development, judicial reform, and anti-narcotics efforts. He will, however, approach most issues with fixed views and seek to project independence. His priorities for the U.S. remain gaining preferential trade legislation for Haitian textiles and increasing U.S. investment. He will welcome direct assistance from Cuba and Venezuela, but has no interest in their anti-American agenda. In his first weeks in office, we expect Preval to personally focus on increasing international assistance toward Haiti's poorest and most volatile areas, while moving deliberately to identify individual allies in the parliament as he considers the nomination of a prime minister. End Summary. -------------- Theory and Practice -------------- ¶2. (C) Preval has dedicated the three months between his election and inauguration to dutifully establishing an atmosphere for social and political conciliation, but has deliberately refrained from any detailed discussions with potential coalition partners or international interlocutors. He has assembled a broad and eclectic group of advisors with whom he has direct access, but has failed to give his advisors an organizational structure. Nor has he indicated how he will transition his team into the government once in office. Preval has articulated broad and praiseworthy goals for long-term economic development, institutional capacity, and political reconciliation, but has yet to offer specific policies or programs that would advance those goals. We do not expect that Preval's inauguration on May 14 will mark a sudden intensification of effort in any of these areas. We expect rather that Preval will continue deliberate efforts to cultivate the emerging leadership of the parliament and identify key individual members with whom he can deal before moving to approve a prime minister and cabinet. -------------- U.S. Important... -------------- ¶3. (C) President Preval recognizes the United States is Haiti's most important bilateral relationship, and has been forthcoming in receiving numerous of USG officials prior to his inauguration. That close level of engagement will continue, as Preval well understands that the U.S. is Haiti's principal source of assistance, both official and non-governmental. Preval will continue to press for preferential trade legislation on textiles and otherwise press for USG assistance in promoting private investment. ¶4. (C) USG interlocutors should not immediately expect a high level of efficiency from the Preval administration. Preval has given very little organizational structure to his staff, and has not clarified overlapping responsibilities in many areas. Nor has he structured the role of his closest advisors in his new government, many of whom compete for his attention. ¶5. (C) Having been directly involved in the tumult of Haitian politics over the past two decades and struggling through a first mandate beset by strife, Preval does have fixed views on most issues that do not always precisely align with our own. He resented the earlier limitations of U.S. assistance resulted from Aristide's malfeasance, feeling those restrictions unfairly punished Haiti's needy. Preval feels that anti-narcotics cooperation was not sufficiently robust during his first term, and that the U.S. withheld information from Haitian authorities. Preval criticized U.S. trade policy during his first term, particularly regarding agriculture and will certainly adhere to the developing world agenda in the WTO. -------------- ...But Haiti First -------------- ¶6. (C) Above all, Preval will seek to project himself as the fierce protector of Haiti's national interest and Haiti's poorest citizens, eschewing any broader agenda. For this reason he will continue to actively solicit assistance from all comers, including Cuba and Venezuela. He has made it clear to emboffs that he is wary of Chavez. He has assured U.S. visitors that accepting Cuban and Venezuelan aid has nothing to do with ideological affinity with either of those countries, telling visiting Representatives Mark Foley and Maxine Waters in March, "we will accept aid from anywhere for the benefit of the Haitian people... This proves we are not communist because we are open to everyone." ¶7. (C) Comment. While both domestic and international observers will intensely focus on the process of selecting the prime minister and cabinet in the first days of the administration, Preval will more likely focus on formulating a message to the most militant of his supporters, and jump-starting assistance programs to appease them. Though most are probably uninterested in agitating for Aristide's return, a number may be moved to agitate for a return of the special treatment they enjoyed under his rule. Preval knows this is the most immediate potential cause of instability. End Comment. SANDERSON