HAITI ELECTIONS: SECOND ROUND LEGISLATIVE RESULTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 000765 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2011 TAGS: PGOV KDEM HA SUBJECT: HAITI ELECTIONS: SECOND ROUND LEGISLATIVE RESULTS Classified By: CDA Douglas Griffiths for reason 1.4(b). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: With almost 98 percent of votes tabulated from the April 21 second round legislative elections, President-elect Rene Preval's L'Espwa party holds the most seats in both houses of Parliament, though L'Espwa falls short of a majority. The April 21 election results finalized 27 of 30 senatorial seats and 87 of 99 deputy races. Fourteen of the April 21 parliamentary races, one senatorial and 13 deputies, were re-runs of the first round contests. The CEP and MINUSTAH have yet to determine a date for the completion of these elections. The dispute process is already underway with the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) receiving numerous challenges from candidates contesting the second round result. The CEP hopes to issue ruling on all challenges and certify final results by May 7. However, Preval appears to have successfully laid the groundwork to be able to govern through alliances, whether formal or informal, across party lines. While he has reportedly refrained thus far from seeking a formal agreement with other parties to form a coalition, he appears to have sufficient support from other parties to be able to select a Prime Minister of his own choosing. End Summary. SENATE RESULTS -------------- ¶2. (U) Pending final results, the senate profile will likely include 11 L'Espwa representatives, four OPL members, three from both Fanmi Lavalas and FUSION parties, two from LAAA (Artibonite in Action) and from UNCHR party, and one representative each from Alyans and Pont. Three representatives from each of the ten departments make up the 30 senate seats. Nine departments held second round elections for 27 senators April 21. Second round results also determine the length of a senator's term by staggering the re-election process. The candidate with the most votes receives a six-year term, second place a four-year term, and third place a two-year term. Elections should thereafter be held each two years to renew one-third of the senate. ¶3. (U) Because of a procedural error in the first round, the North East Department re-ran a first round election for the senate. The six candidates advancing to the second round are likely to include two FUSION, two Alyans, and one each from Fanmi Lavalas and Pont. Rudolph Boulos of FUSION is the clear favorite, receiving over 41 percent of the first round vote. The nearest five competitors ranged from 16 to 22 percent. DEPUTY RESULTS -------------- ¶4. (U) In the Chamber of Deputies, L'Espwa will have at least 20 representatives. FUSION and Alyans follow with 14 and 11 respectively. The next three major parties include OPL with eight, and Fanmi Lavalas and UNCHR with six each. Of the rest for which partial results are available: MPH and RDNP both have four; KONBA and LAAA both have three; and FRN, MOCHRENHA, MRN, Tet Ansanm, MIRN, JPDN, and Unite will each have one representative. Tabulation from two districts is still pending. One deputy seat was determined in the February 7 election. ¶5. (U) Thirteen deputy races were first round contests. In three of the 13, one candidate received an absolute majority, thus eliminating the need for a second round in those races. The twenty candidates moving to the second round in the remaining races come from 13 different parties. Therefore, the results of the pending races are unlikely to tip the balance of power in the legislature. FINAL RESULTS -------------- ¶6. (U) The CEP must rule on all challenges before issuing the final results of the second round. The CEP counselor in charge of the challenge process, Pierre Richard Duchemin, told Polcouns on April 28 that he hoped to be able to conclude the challenge process by May 7, but would have a better idea the following day when he expected rulings taken PORT AU PR 00000765 002 OF 002 at the Department level to arrive at the CEP. He expressed acute awareness of the importance of finalizing election results as soon as possible in light of the presidential inauguration date of May 14. The CEP will re-run at least one race as a result of a security incident and the subsequent closing of a voting center in the city of Grand Saline in the Artibonite Department (reftel) If no other challenges result in repeats of any of the second round contests, President Preval will assume the presidency before 27 senators and 88 deputies. The CEP has yet to fix a date for the completion of the second round in those races pending consultations with MINUSTAH regarding available budget resources and the scheduling of municipal and local elections. MINUSTAH has previously claimed that the budget for completion of the legislative elections is available. COMMENT: PREVAL AND PARLIAMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Preval is by all accounts pleased with the outcome of the elections and not disappointed that L'Espwa lacks a majority. He cobbled together the L'Espwa party as a platform for his presidential candidacy, not because of a desire to develop a national political party. L'Espwa is better characterized as a movement on his behalf, rather than a party with an enunciated platform. Preval indicated in numerous ways that he did not wish to find himself overly beholden to L'Espwa legislators and notably refrained from campaigning directly for them in advance of the second round. Instead he has said that he preferred to work in parliament with the moderately left-of-center parties, notably FUSION, OPL, Alyans, and UNION, with whom he feels comfortable. ¶8. (C) Comment Continued. Publicly and privately Preval has worked to reassure political, business, and civil society leaders that he shares common goals for Haiti's development and wants their cooperation. The only political initiative he has publicly launched in advance of his inauguration, his 25-year governability plan, is an effort to foster cross-party cooperation and social reconciliation. Preval has thus far refrained from seeking formal coalition or alliance, no doubt at least in part because he does not wish to make concrete concessions to any party. For the moment, his most important task is to choose a Prime Minister, and it appears he has secured enough good will among political leaders and the broader populace to be able to fill the job on his own terms. GRIFFITHS