HAITI ELECTIONS: SECOND ROUND LEGISLATIVE RESULTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 000765

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2011
TAGS: PGOV KDEM HA
SUBJECT: HAITI ELECTIONS: SECOND ROUND LEGISLATIVE RESULTS

Classified By: CDA Douglas Griffiths for reason 1.4(b).


1. (SBU) Summary: With almost 98 percent of votes tabulated
from the April 21 second round legislative elections,
President-elect Rene Preval's L'Espwa party holds the most
seats in both houses of Parliament, though L'Espwa falls
short of a majority. The April 21 election results finalized
27 of 30 senatorial seats and 87 of 99 deputy races.
Fourteen of the April 21 parliamentary races, one senatorial
and 13 deputies, were re-runs of the first round contests.
The CEP and MINUSTAH have yet to determine a date for the
completion of these elections. The dispute process is
already underway with the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP)
receiving numerous challenges from candidates contesting the
second round result. The CEP hopes to issue ruling on all
challenges and certify final results by May 7. However,
Preval appears to have successfully laid the groundwork to be
able to govern through alliances, whether formal or informal,
across party lines. While he has reportedly refrained thus
far from seeking a formal agreement with other parties to
form a coalition, he appears to have sufficient support from
other parties to be able to select a Prime Minister of his
own choosing. End Summary.

SENATE RESULTS
--------------


2. (U) Pending final results, the senate profile will likely
include 11 L'Espwa representatives, four OPL members, three
from both Fanmi Lavalas and FUSION parties, two from LAAA
(Artibonite in Action) and from UNCHR party, and one
representative each from Alyans and Pont. Three
representatives from each of the ten departments make up the
30 senate seats. Nine departments held second round
elections for 27 senators April 21. Second round results
also determine the length of a senator's term by staggering
the re-election process. The candidate with the most votes
receives a six-year term, second place a four-year term, and
third place a two-year term. Elections should thereafter be
held each two years to renew one-third of the senate.


3. (U) Because of a procedural error in the first round, the
North East Department re-ran a first round election for the
senate. The six candidates advancing to the second round are
likely to include two FUSION, two Alyans, and one each from
Fanmi Lavalas and Pont. Rudolph Boulos of FUSION is the
clear favorite, receiving over 41 percent of the first round
vote. The nearest five competitors ranged from 16 to 22
percent.

DEPUTY RESULTS
--------------


4. (U) In the Chamber of Deputies, L'Espwa will have at least
20 representatives. FUSION and Alyans follow with 14 and 11
respectively. The next three major parties include OPL with
eight, and Fanmi Lavalas and UNCHR with six each. Of the
rest for which partial results are available: MPH and RDNP
both have four; KONBA and LAAA both have three; and FRN,
MOCHRENHA, MRN, Tet Ansanm, MIRN, JPDN, and Unite will each
have one representative. Tabulation from two districts is
still pending. One deputy seat was determined in the
February 7 election.


5. (U) Thirteen deputy races were first round contests. In
three of the 13, one candidate received an absolute majority,
thus eliminating the need for a second round in those races.
The twenty candidates moving to the second round in the
remaining races come from 13 different parties. Therefore,
the results of the pending races are unlikely to tip the
balance of power in the legislature.

FINAL RESULTS
--------------


6. (U) The CEP must rule on all challenges before issuing the
final results of the second round. The CEP counselor in
charge of the challenge process, Pierre Richard Duchemin,
told Polcouns on April 28 that he hoped to be able to
conclude the challenge process by May 7, but would have a
better idea the following day when he expected rulings taken

PORT AU PR 00000765 002 OF 002


at the Department level to arrive at the CEP. He expressed
acute awareness of the importance of finalizing election
results as soon as possible in light of the presidential
inauguration date of May 14. The CEP will re-run at least
one race as a result of a security incident and the
subsequent closing of a voting center in the city of Grand
Saline in the Artibonite Department (reftel) If no other
challenges result in repeats of any of the second round
contests, President Preval will assume the presidency before
27 senators and 88 deputies. The CEP has yet to fix a date
for the completion of the second round in those races pending
consultations with MINUSTAH regarding available budget
resources and the scheduling of municipal and local
elections. MINUSTAH has previously claimed that the budget
for completion of the legislative elections is available.

COMMENT: PREVAL AND PARLIAMENT
--------------


7. (C) Preval is by all accounts pleased with the outcome of
the elections and not disappointed that L'Espwa lacks a
majority. He cobbled together the L'Espwa party as a
platform for his presidential candidacy, not because of a
desire to develop a national political party. L'Espwa is
better characterized as a movement on his behalf, rather than
a party with an enunciated platform. Preval indicated in
numerous ways that he did not wish to find himself overly
beholden to L'Espwa legislators and notably refrained from
campaigning directly for them in advance of the second round.
Instead he has said that he preferred to work in parliament
with the moderately left-of-center parties, notably FUSION,
OPL, Alyans, and UNION, with whom he feels comfortable.


8. (C) Comment Continued. Publicly and privately Preval has
worked to reassure political, business, and civil society
leaders that he shares common goals for Haiti's development
and wants their cooperation. The only political initiative
he has publicly launched in advance of his inauguration, his
25-year governability plan, is an effort to foster
cross-party cooperation and social reconciliation. Preval
has thus far refrained from seeking formal coalition or
alliance, no doubt at least in part because he does not wish
to make concrete concessions to any party. For the moment,
his most important task is to choose a Prime Minister, and it
appears he has secured enough good will among political
leaders and the broader populace to be able to fill the job
on his own terms.
GRIFFITHS