HAITI ELECTIONS IMPASSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 000321 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR DRL S/CRS SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR INR/IAA (BEN-YEHUDA) TREASURY FOR JEFFREY LEVINE E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2016 TAGS: KDEM PREL HA SUBJECT: HAITI ELECTIONS IMPASSE REF: PAP 317 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Douglas M. Griffiths for Reasons : 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Ninety-two percent of the vote tally sheets (Proces Verbaux or PVs) had been recorded before the CEP ordered counting stopped February 14. Based on internal projections, MINUSTAH officials do not believe that the uncounted PVs would push Rene Preval over the fifty percent mark needed to win the elections. Second place finisher Leslie Manigat urged that decisions be based on the electoral law and not on protests or political pressure. Popular unrest flared again in Port-au-Prince the evening of February 14 after local TV showed ballots found in a dump. MINUSTAH officials believe the ballots were deliberately planted in an effort to discredit the elections. Poloff is currently at the voter tabulation center examining the ballots with Minustah officials. The Haitian government has formed a Commission to examine the counting process. The Commission is composed of representatives of the government, the electoral commission and Preval's E'Espwa party. Any political compromise needs the endorsement of significant political actors, including second place finisher Manigat and the G-184. OAS SecGen Insulza, scheduled to arrive the afternoon of February 15, should push for an inclusive, institutional solution to the impasse. End Summary. Preval at 48.67 Percent with 92 Percent Counted -------------- -- ¶2. (U) According to MINUSTAH officials, 92 percent of the Proces Verbaux (PV) had already been entered into the tabulation database, when the CEP ordered counting stopped February 14. Of the 740 PVs that remain, MINUSTAH believes 276 are irrecoverable, leaving 464, which are either already at the Vote Tabulation Center (VTC) or lost somewhere in transit to the VTC. Based on their own internal projections, MINUSTAH officials assisting at the counting center believe that the PVs not yet entered into the database will not push Preval over 50 percent of the vote. Currently, Preval has 48.67 percent of the vote while runner up Leslie Manigat has 11.83 percent. Preval: Blank Ballots Skewed Results -------------- ¶3. (U) Presidential hopeful Rene Preval said February 14 (reftel) that his party (L,Espwa) would contest results if he does not finish with more than 50 percent of the vote. He also said his supporters would also contest. Preval claimed that an inordinate number of the ballots cast were blank, and concluded that they were used to force him into a second round. He proposed two possible methods to deal with the blank ballots: 1) the CEP assume three percent of ballots were blank nationwide and recalculate the vote; or that 2) the CEP open ballot boxes with the most blank votes and recount the ballots. Manigat Urges Respect for Law and Process -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Second place finisher Leslie Manigat urged in a February 14 meeting with members of the Interim Government of Haiti (IGOH),Provisional Electoral Council (CEP),and international community that elections decisions be based on the electoral law and not on protests or political pressure. He said that negotiations would be inevitable after the second round, but stressed that violence cannot be allowed to dictate the winner of the election. He argued that Preval must accept the first round results, so that the process can move forward. The missing PVs, he said, would only be PORT AU PR 00000321 002 OF 002 important if they would affect the final results. Commission to Investigate Voting and Count -------------- ¶5. (U) The interim government has announced the formation of a commission to investigate the results of the election. The commission consists of two members of the CEP, Pierre Richard Duchemin and Rosemond Pradel, two members of the IGOH, Minister of the Interior Magloire and Presidential Chief of Staff Brunache, and two unnamed members of L'Espwa. ¶6. (C) CEP member Pierre Richard Duchemin told PolOff February 15 he believes the commission will find a political solution to the problem, intimating that the commission would find a way to declare Preval the winner. He also said he had not heard anything about the mandate of the commission and that the commission has not yet had any meetings. Duchemin said he hoped the commission would get to the bottom of the blank ballot question and expressed concern that the number of blank ballots cast was high compared to elections in other countries. Multiple Possible Sources for Found Burned Ballots -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Haitian and international press reported that burned ballots, many of which were marked with votes for Preval, were discovered in a garbage dump near Cite Soleil on the outskirts of Port-au-Prince. MINUSTAH officials believe the ballots were deliberately planted in an effort to discredit the elections. They site three possible sources for the ballots: 1) they may have come from voting centers that were burned in the Departments of the Grande Anse and North; 2) a voting center in Delmas 2 (near Bel-Air) where some ballots had disappeared when UNPOL retrieved the ballots after elections; 3) two boxes of ballots destined for Isle La Gonave disappeared from the MINUSTAH base at the Port-au-Prince airport on the day before elections. Poloff is currently at the vote tabulation center examining the ballots with Minustah officials. ¶8. (C) Comment: We are wary of a political solution that this limited membership commission might propose. CEP Director General Jacques Bernard told us February 12 that Prime Minister Latortue and Interior Minister Magloire had suggested the CEP find a way to declare Preval the winner. Bernard refused. A presidential decree altering the electoral law to justify a Preval victory in the first round, would undermine the legitimacy of the electoral process. The CEP should resume counting, and candidates should submit their challenges through the established procedures. We will continue to work with Haitian contacts and our partners in the international community to get the political actors to work together to find a solution to this impasse. End Comment. CARNEY