S E C R E T PORT AU PRINCE 000311

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR
DRL
S/CRS
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR
INR/IAA (BEN-YEHUDA)
TREASURY FOR JEFFREY LEVINE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PKAO HA
SUBJECT: PREVAL LEADS, BUT UNLIKELY TO EXCEED 50 PERCENT


Classified By: DCM Douglas Griffiths, reasons 1.4 b and d


1. (S) Summary: Rene Preval continues to lead the Haitian
race for president with 48.73 percent of the vote. As of
6:30 a.m. February 13, the CEP had entered 8281 of the 9208
or 89 percent of the proces verbaux (PV) into its database.
The remaining roughly 1000 are either being examined before
they are entered into the system, somewhere in transit to the
tabulation center, or destroyed. Preval supporters and the
Interim Government of Haiti (IGOH) have begun to pressure the
CEP to announce the results and to declare Preval the winner
irrespective of the actual percentage of the vote he carries.
End Summary.


2. (U) As of 6:30 a.m. February 13, Rene Preval led with
48.73 percent of the vote. Leslie Manigat is a distant
second with 11.84 percent of the vote. Charlie Baker was in
third place with 7.93 percent of the vote.


3. (SBU) The Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) Vote
Tabulation Center (VTC) has already entered 8281 of the 9208
PVs into its database. The remaining PVs fall into three
categories: 1) those that have already arrived at the
tabulation center but are not yet entered into the system
because of technical problems with the PV, which the OAS,
MINUSTAH and CEP are correcting; 2) those that have been
misplaced somewhere in the recovery chain and should continue
to trickle into the tabulation center; and 3) those (322 PVs
or roughly 3 percent of the total PVs) the CEP believes were
burned during attacks on voting centers or are otherwise
unrecoverable.


4. (S) Preval supporters and the IGOH are beginning to
politically pressure the counting process. Thousands of
Preval supporters demonstrated February 12, some demanded
that the CEP release results, others that Preval be declared
the winner even if he does not receive more than 50 percent
of the vote. In addition, according to CEP Director General
Jacques Bernard, IGOH officials asked February 11 that
Bernard ease mounting tension and declare Preval the winner
with 53 percent of the vote. Bernard refused their
entreaties. Post and Canadian Ambassador Claude Boucher
warned the IGOH neither Washington nor Ottawa would tolerate
politicking around the vote count.


5. (S) Suzy Castor, a prominent OPL (Struggling People's
Party) leader, Canadian Ambassador Boucher, Chamber of
Commerce President (and Entente backer) Reggie Boulos, and
the Prime Minister have all called Leslie Manigat and urged
him to concede to Preval. Manigat refused and said he
considered any request for his concession as a personal
betrayal and traitorous.
CARNEY