HAITI ELECTIONS: 30 SENATORIAL SEATS AT STAKE

C O N F I D E N T I A L PORT AU PRINCE 000222 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA AND USOAS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2016 TAGS: KDEM PREL PGOV HA SUBJECT: HAITI ELECTIONS: 30 SENATORIAL SEATS AT STAKE REF: 05 PAP 2945 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Douglas M. Griffiths for Reasons : 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (U) Summary. Voters will elect thirty members to the Haitian senate in the upcoming elections, three each from the country's ten departments. No single party is likely to gain a majority in either the senate or the chamber of deputies, thus the new President and parliament will likely have to compromise in choosing a prime minister and cabinet ministers. Little polling exists on the individual senate races, though many analysts judge that front-running candidate Rene Preval will face a majority from parties that opposed him. In Embassy-sponsored polling, however, Preval's L'Espwa party registers high support generally. A wide range of parties contesting the second round of the Senate races will hopefully lead to widespread acceptance of the credibility of first round results. Beginning in paragraph 5, post provides capsule summaries of the races by department. End Summary. WHO WINS WHAT -------------- ¶2. (U) A total of 302 candidates from 45 parties will contest the thirty available senate seats. Voters will vote for three candidates in each department. The six top vote getters from each race in first round on February 7 will advance to the second round on March 19. In the second round, the first top vote getter will win a six-year term, the second top vote getter will win a four-year term, and the third top vote getter will win a two-year term. Elections for senate are to take place every two years henceforth with future winners obtaining a six-year term. If a candidate receives a majority of votes in first round he or she will automatically win the six-year term and avoid a second round run-off. In this case, only the top four vote getters from that senatorial race would go into the second round, with the top vote getter winning a four-year term, and the second top vote getter winning a two-year term. THE HORSE RACES -------------- ¶3. (SBU) It appears that senate seats will be widely dispersed among the several parties. More coherence may emerge in the lower house, where traditional parties have some organizational advantages in a wider field of deputy races. Many observers judge that the more established FUSION and OPL parties, members of the nine-party Political Entente for Modernity and Democracy formed in opposition to Preval, may win the largest number of seats in the lower house. Media reported January 25 that within the Entente itself, the center-right GFCD of presidential candidate Hubert DeRonceray and center-left FUSION party of presidential candidate Serge Gilles signed a separate accord promising to implement their programs jointly if one or the other wins the presidency and seats in the parliament. However, Preval's L'Espwa party (formed only months ago as a vehicle for his presidential candidacy) and newcomer Tet Ansamn (allied with since disqualified dual-national Dumarsais Simeus) both appear to have gained strong support, and could together with Fami Lavalas potentially form a strong populist blck. ¶3. (SBU) In any case, we believe it highly likely that the new Haitian president will have t forge a compromise with a disparate grouping of parties in order to choose a prime minister and cabinet. According to Haiti's constitution, if there is no majority party in parliament from which the president may choose a prime minister, the president must consult with the presidents of the two chambers in selecting a candidate subject to the majority approval of both houses. ¶4. (SBU) Little polling data exists regarding senate races. Post's comments on likely winners and strong candidates reflect anecdotal evidence and impressions from our limited recent travel throughout the country. West (Port-au-Prince) -------------- ¶5. (C) This is by far the most contested race, with twenty eight parties fielding a total of fifty-four candidates (Tet Ansamn alone is running four candidates). Strong candidates include: Myrlande Manigat (RDNP) Daniel Supplice (PLH) Luckner Desir (MPH) Henri Robert Sterlin (ADRENA) Rudy Heriveaux (Fanmi Lavalas) Marie Denise Claude (FUSION) Others who appear to command some following include: Price Cyprien (FUSION) Jean-Francois Deus (GFCD) Stanley Charles Theard (JPDN) Anacacis Jean-Hector (L'Espwa) Sylvio Dieudonne (MOCHRENHA) J.P. Rodrigue Mathieu (OPL) Many believe Myrlande Manigat (wife of presidential candidate Leslie Manigat) is the strongest senatorial candidate in the country with good chances of winning a seat in the first round. South (Les Cayes) -------------- ¶4. (C) Eighteen parties are fielding thirty-six candidates. Out of those candidates, only former senator Joseph Yvon Feuille of Fanmi Lavalas appears assured of entering the second round. UNCHR's presidential candidate Chavannes Jean-Baptise is popular in the south, but we question whether his strength will translate into support for his party's senatorial candidates. North (Cap-Haitien) -------------- ¶5. (C) Thirteen parties are fielding twenty-eight candidates. Alyans' presidential candidate Evans Paul originally hails from Cap-Haitien, and it remains a party stronghold. Likely candidates to make it into the second round include: Friendly Denis Julien (PLH) Johnson Mesidor (Alyans) Southeast (Jacmel) -------------- ¶6. (C) Thirteen parties are fielding twenty-seven candidates. Candidates likely to make it round two include: Francois Annibal Coffy (FUSION) Joseph Lambert (L'Espwa) Eugene George Frantz Large (L'Espwa) Grand-Anse (Jeremie) -------------- ¶7. (C) Sixteen parties are fielding twenty-eight candidates. Only former Jeremie mayor Jean Herve Beauport of Tet Ansamn appears assured of entering the second round. Nippes (Miragoane) -------------- ¶8. (C) Thirteen parties are fielding twenty-five candidates. Out of those candidates, only former senator (and president of the senate) Edgard LeBlanc of OPL appears assured of entering the second round. Central Plateau (Hinche) -------------- ¶9. (C) Sixteen parties are fielding twenty-eight candidates. During Poloff's trip to Hinche in mid-December, there were a significant number of campaign posters throughout the region, but only L'Espwa established an office. L'Espwa's candidates include Jean Wilbert Jacques and Ultimo Compere. Charles Henry Baker's campaign manager, Chavannes Jean-Baptiste, a leader of the Papaye Peasants Movement (MPP) organization, is headquartered in Hinche and is affiliated with KOMBA. KOMBA's candidates include Gilbert Augustin, Mona Bernadieu and Nesly Phelle. Joseph Fignole Jean-Louis of UNITE may do well based on name recognition. Daniel Fignole was an extremely popular politician in the 1950's who was an early ally but later nemesis of Francois "Papa Doc" Duvalier. Fignole was provisional president of Haiti for eighteen days before being overthrown and sent into exile ahead of Duvalier's 1957 election to power. Northwest (Ouanaminthe/Fort Liberte) -------------- ¶10. (C) Eleven parties are fielding twenty-three candidates, including one independent. Out of those candidates, only Rudolph Boulos (brother of Haiti's Chamber of Commerce president Reginald Boulos),representing FUSION, appears assured of entering the second round. (Note: A Boulos' win may be contested, however, as rumors of his U.S. citizenship are circulating. End Note.) Artibonite (Gonaives) -------------- ¶11. (C) Sixteen parties are fielding twenty-nine candidates. Gonaives is the birthplace of MOCHRENHA's founder and presidential candidate Luc Mesadieu. One of MOCHRENHA's senatorial candidates is the son of the party's vice president (who is himself a candidate in the senatorial race in the West). The likely candidates to make it into the second round include: Winter Etienne (FRN) Youri Latortue (LAAA-Artibonite in Action) Francois Fouchard Bergrome (LAAA) Noel Emmanuel Limage (L'Espwa) Enock Gene Genelus (MPH) Sadrac Dieudonne (MOCHRENHA) The strongest candidates in this race appear to be Youri Latortue (nephew, and former chief of security, of interim Prime Minister Gerard Latortue),Enock Genelus and Winter Etienne. Many believe Youri Latortue has good chances of winning a seat in first round. Rumors abound that he has used his access to government resources to build his support. Northwest (Port-de-Paix) -------------- ¶12. (C) Fifteen parties are fielding twenty-four candidates. The strongest candidates appear to be: Henry Alcidonas (Tet Ansamn) Fresnel Stephen (Tet Ansamn) Bethony Henry (L'Espwa) Joseph Leonard (FUSION) Eddy Bastien (Alyans) CARNEY