ARISTIDE COLLABORATORS RELEASED

C O N F I D E N T I A L PORT AU PRINCE 001522 SIPDIS SIPDIS SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KJUS PHUM HA SUBJECT: ARISTIDE COLLABORATORS RELEASED REF: 04 PORT-AU-PRINCE 538 Classified By: Ambassador Janet A. Sanderson, reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) The presiding judge on August 14 released Aristide allies and Lavalas activists Anette Auguste, aka So Anne, Paul Raymond, and Yvon Antoine, aka Yvon Zapzap, and dismissed the charges against them for lack of evidence. Over the course of their roughly 18-month detention, prosecutors failed to develop evidence or gather testimony to sustain the charges of "association with malefactors." During the Aristide regime, So Ann and her cohorts were responsible for delivering orders and the wherewithal directly from the palace to pro-Aristide thugs to attack anti-Aristide protesters and suspected political opponents. (Reftel outlines the criminal activities of Aristide's closest associates, including So Anne and Raymond.) The group was most notorious for their presumed involvement in the December 5, 2003, attack against the Rector of the Social Science Faculty of the National University, Pierre Marie Paquiot, on the grounds of the National University. Both of Rector Paquiot's knees were broken in the brazen attack, which served to galvanize student and civil society opposition to the Aristide regime. ¶2. (C) Student groups and anti-Lavalas have cried foul in response to the judge's decision and alleged intimidation of witnesses, but most informed Haitian observers recognized that the decision was the result of Haitian prosecutors failing to develop a case against the accused. Minister of Justice Magloire echoed that view in conversation with the Ambassador after the decision, although he appeared visibly uncomfortable with the decision. ¶3. (SBU) Coincidentally, on the afternoon of August 14, pro-Fanmi Lavalas demonstrators calling for Aristide's immediate return marched in downtown Port-au-Prince, finishing in front of the National Palace. While some media reported participation exceeding 1,000, Poloff witnessed a maximum participation of three hundred. Some demonstrators carried posters of Aristide, though many of the posters were folded into hats as protection from the afternoon sun. The mood of the crowd, made up of primarily of what looked to be young teenagers, was not menacing or threatening in any way. MINUSTAH personnel accompanied the march and reported no security incidents. ¶4. (C) Comment: While So Anne's release, combined with sporadic pro-Lavalas demonstrations and the earlier releases of Lavalas activists Rene Civil, Jocelyn Privert, and Yvon Neptune, have increased nervousness in some quarters regarding a potential re-emergence of Lavalas violence, there is little evidence that So Anne or any of the other militants could successfully re-ignite pro-Aristide instability. Rene Civil, perhaps the chief Lavalas bogey man, has been free since May and by all accounts actively agitating for violent street protests. Thus far he has failed to generate any significant support. MINUSTAH claims that Aristide followers are slipping back into the country, but if so, they have yet to show their hand. While the call for Aristide's return is still heard, the issue of reinstatement of government jobs for Lavalas supporters seems to be the principle goal of Lavalas militants. Although moderate Lavalas leaders have yet to conclusively consolidate their leadership, Aristide has yet to generate any real support for his return, and it is highly unlikely this release will do so. SANDERSON