CAMBODIAN THOUGHTS ON UPCOMING ASEAN FM MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L PHNOM PENH 000665 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS; GENEVA FOR RMA E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2016 TAGS: PHUM PREL CB SUBJECT: CAMBODIAN THOUGHTS ON UPCOMING ASEAN FM MEETING REF: PHNOM PENH 643 Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Margaret McKean; Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. According to MFA Secretary of State for ASEAN affairs Kao Kim Hourn, ASEAN has several options for moving foward on Burma: a visit to Burma by the Eminent Persons Group (EPG),a visit by the ASEAN Troika, or an invitation from the Philippines President to Than Shwe to attend the ASEAN Leaders Summit at the year's end (with the proviso that only Than Shwe would be welcome). Kao Kim Hourn suggested that China and India could play a useful role in influencing Burma; he also thought that ASEAN countries will increasingly distance themselves from Burma and stop defending the military government. End summary. FM Hamid's Visit "a Disaster" -------------- ¶2. (C) On April 9, Pol/Econ Chief met with MFA Secretary of State for ASEAN Affairs Kao Kim Hourn to discuss FM Hamid's visit and upcoming ASEAN FM meeting in Bali. Kao Kim Hourn characterized Hamid's visit as a "disaster," saying his impression reflected feedback from Malaysia and other ASEAN countries. He added that FM Hamid will provide a report to the ASEAN Foreign Ministers during the upcoming retreat in Bali, which Kao Kim Hourn will attend with Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Namhong. (Note: Reftel described FM Hor Namhong's reaction to FM Hamid's visit, and the Cambodian official's view that the visit was a failure. End Note.) ¶3. (C) Kao Kim Hourn said ASEAN's options are limited. Pol/Econ Chief raised the possibility of temporary suspension of Burma's membership in ASEAN, and asked if that would make a difference to the generals in Rangoon. Kao Kim Hourn responded that suspending their membership would be a huge blow as the regime gains legitimacy from being a member of ASEAN. However, there does not exist a mechanism for suspension, opined the MFA official, as ASEAN does not yet have a charter. He added that a 10-member Eminent Persons Group (EPG) representing the ten member countries is working on a draft charter. Continuing on that theme, Kao Kim Hourn proposed that the EPG could factor references to respect for democracy and human rights into the charter, thereby calling into question Burma's right to membership. He also offered that the EPG could schedule their next meeting in Rangoon. Another possibility would be for the ASEAN Troika to visit Rangoon. Finally, Kao Kim Hourn suggested that the Philippines invite Than Shwe (and only Than Shwe) to the Leader's Summit later in the year, and specify that only he would be welcome to represent Burma, as opposed to sending one of the political leaders. That way, Burma's top general would hear first hand from other ASEAN leaders how disappointed and frustrated the regional body has become over Burma's intransigence. ¶4. (C) The MFA official said another tack would be to press India and China to play a more influential and positive role in Burma, as both countries have interests in the country and are ASEAN Dialogue Partners with Burma. When asked if ASEAN had formally or informally approached either country, Kao Kim Hourn responded in the negative. Some ASEAN member states (NFI) have indicated that ASEAN could not make such an approach without Burma's knowledge, as to go behind their back would be unacceptable according to ASEAN principles. ¶5. (C) Irrespective of how ASEAN proceeds on the issue of Burma, Kao Kim Hourn thought it likely that ASEAN would increasingly distance itself from Burma. If other international bodies wish to criticize the regime, ASEAN member states will likely stand to the sidelines and no longer defend the regime. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Cambodia is not pleased with Burma but unwilling, it appears, to take the lead in suggesting that Burma's membership be pulled. Kao Kim Hourn mentioned that the ASEAN Secretary General would be visiting Cambodia towards the SIPDIS month's end to participate in another academic meeting sponsored by the University of Cambodia, and the Embassy might have the opportunity for further discussions on Burma at that time. End Comment. Mussomeli