NRP Approved; Ranariddh Loses Assembly Seat

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PHNOM PENH 002144 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR EAP/MLS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PHUM PREL KDEM CB SUBJECT: NRP Approved; Ranariddh Loses Assembly Seat ¶1. (U) Summary. The MOI formally recognized the Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP) on November 28. With approval for the Prince to form his own party, FUNCINPEC expelled Ranariddh from the royalist party, which means the loss of Ranariddh's National Assembly seat and parliamentary immunity. The Prince has gone to France to finish his academic obligations and is expected to return after the holidays. Supporters of the NRP and FUNCINPEC have begun competing for FUNCINPEC voters, and Ranariddh's ability to organize his fledgling party prior to the two upcoming elections remains in question. Initial information suggests that Ranariddh retains more grassroots support among FUNCINPEC party faithful than anyone guessed, and the rump FUNCINPEC may be the big loser at the polls in 2007. Unclear is whether the RGC will try to bring a legal case against Ranariddh to prevent the Prince from returning to Cambodia and pursuing his renewed political life. End Summary. MOI Approves NRP -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On November 28, the Ministry of Interior recognized the formation of Prince Norodom Ranariddh's new party, ending speculation that the government would try to prevent the party from competing in the communal council elections scheduled for April 1, ¶2007. In a November 28 response to Prince Norodom Ranariddh, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior Sar Kheng said that the MOI recognizes the Khmer Front Party's (KFP) extraordinary congress amending its statutes, changing the party's logo to incorporate Ranariddh's image, changing the name from the KFP to the Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP),and electing Prince Norodom Ranariddh as the NRP's President. Ok Socheat, Prince Ranariddh's advisor, confirmed the party's new status in a meeting with Pol/Econ Chief on November ¶29. "From now on, the NRP is legal," he said. ¶3. (U) Prince Ranariddh, who was ousted as FUNCINPEC President in an October 18 party congress, has been seeking to form a new party in time to compete in upcoming elections at the commune council level on April 1, 2007, and for the National Assembly in 2008. Prince Sisowath Thomico, who had earlier aligned his party with the KFP, had encouraged Ranariddh to consider the KFP as an alternative political vehicle. Given MOI delays in approving his application to create his own party, Ranariddh participated in a November 16 Khmer Front Party congress, in which the Khmer Front Party agreed to amend its charter and voted to change its name to the Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP). PM Hun Sen mocked Ranariddh's decision, and characterized the Prince as someone begging for shelter from others. ¶4. (SBU) The MOI's recognition came after Ranariddh departed Cambodia for France. According to Ok Socheat, the Prince left the country on November 26, and will return to Cambodia following the Christmas holidays. Socheat said the Prince would resign from his teaching job in France so that he could have sufficient time to strengthen the new party. Based on the NEC's schedule, the Communal Election Committee will accept candidate lists from January 1 to 3, ¶2007. Socheat told us that an unspecified number of FUNCINPEC commune councilors are prepared to run under the NRP banner, as they recognize they will not be re-elected as FUNCINPEC candidates. Recent press reports also indicate that popular support for Ranariddh among grassroots supporters of FUNCINPEC is greater than many imagined, with those interviewed quoted as saying they will follow the Prince in the coming elections no matter the name of his party. This seems consistent with recent IRI polling data, which shows that many FUNCINPEC supporters are first and foremost supporters of the monarchy. FUNCINPEC Expels Ranariddh; NA Seat Lost -------------- ¶5. (U) Following the MOI's recognition of the NRP, FUNCINPEC announced on November 29 that Prince Ranariddh is no longer a party member nor a member of the National Assembly representing Kompong Cham. Ok Socheat criticized the announcement and called the dismissal illegal. Socheat called on the National Assembly to suspend the Prince's removal until a court rules on the Prince's complaint alleging that FUNCINPEC illegally removed him as party leader. In addition to losing his NA seat, Ranariddh will lose his parliamentary immunity. Ok Socheat and other sources have speculated that the MOI issued the NRP a letter of recognition so that the Prince would lose his MP status and the RGC could bring possible corruption charges against him. Another FUNCINPEC MP and Ranariddh loyalist, Chhim Seak Leng, also reportedly has been expelled from FUNCINPEC and will lose his seat and immunity status. SRP: Ranariddh Will Beat FUNCINPEC -------------- ¶6. (SBU) During a November 30 meeting with SRP leader Sam Rainsy and Tioulong Samaura, both opposition figures noted that Ranariddh's ability to emerge quickly as a new political leader and draw PHNOM PENH 00002144 002 OF 003 defectors from FUNCINPEC at the local level has been a surprise to many. Like Ok Socheat, they believe Ranariddh's party will draw more FUNCINPEC voters than the rump FUNCINPEC led by Keo Puth Rasmei. Despite Rasmei's linkage by marriage to former King Sihanouk's family, Rainsy acknowledged that FUNCINPEC voters have an enduring loyalty to the monarchy, and they associate the King Father with Ranariddh. Rainsy speculated that the younger generation of voters will increasingly distance themselves from the monarchy. He added, however, that Hun Sen remains determined to remove the royal family from politics. ¶7. (SBU) Rainsy offered that Hun Sen misjudged how Ranariddh would react to being removed as FUNCINPEC leader. The PM thought Ranariddh would retire from politics with his mistress to France; he did not foresee the Prince fighting back. Rainsy added he is keeping his options open - a possible alliance with the CPP in a future government should the right policies be pursued, or an alignment with Ranariddh in opposition to the CPP if the NRP shows itself to be a reliable partner. Fighting for the FUNCINPEC Vote -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The NRP and FUNCINPEC are already competing for FUNCINPEC voters and candidates. According to Ok Socheat, most of FUNCINPEC's 26 MPs support Prince Ranariddh, but they are afraid to openly support the Prince for fear of losing their NA seats. Ranariddh has reportedly instructed them to stay in the NA as there is no need for them to declare themselves at this early stage. On the other hand, FUNCINPEC commune councilors seeking re-election in April must announce themselves in the next month; therefore, some commune officials are already planning to defect to the NRP in areas where they fear FUNCINPEC voters will support an NRP candidate. You Hockry Removed as NA Vice President -------------- ¶9. (SBU) You Hockry, known as a Ranariddh loyalist, was removed as the second Vice-President of the National Assembly on November 27. On December 4, You Hockry told Pol/Econ Chief that he did not support Nhek Bun Chhay's October 16 Congress that ousted Ranariddh as party leader, and he also refused to sign a loyalty oath to the FUNCINPEC Secretary General. Hong Sun Huot, who the National Assembly approved as Hockry's replacement, is a brother-in-law of Keo Puth Ramsey, the President of FUNCINPEC. Another FUNCINPEC source predicted that the party would remove Prince Norodom Chakrapong from the Senate because he supports the NRP. (Note: New FUNCINPEC President Keo Puth Rasmei's comments about Prince Chakrapong during a conversation with the Ambassador would seem to support that prediction. End Note.) However, so far there have been no actions against Prince Norodom Sirivudh and Princess Norodom Vacherha, who are also known as Ranariddh's loyalists. ¶10. (SBU) Hockry said he felt responsible in part for Nhek Bun Chhay's actions, noting that he had urged Ranariddh to accept Nhek Bun Chhay to appease the CPP after the FUNCINPEC Secretary General pledged to remain loyal to the party. Hockry related that he and other FUNCINPEC senior officials learned of the October 16 Congress and called on Nhek Bun Chhay to explain himself; Nhek Bun Chhay denied the allegations although You Hockry and others had collected documentation as to Keo Puth Rasmei's appointment. Ranariddh knew about the treachery, said Hockry, but wanted everything to go forward so Nhek Bun Chhay and his supporters would be exposed. Hockry agreed with other sources that the CPP and Nhek Bun Chhay underestimated Ranariddh's reaction as well as the amount of popular the Prince still retains. Hockry believes the NRP will get two-thirds or more of FUNCINPEC voters in the upcoming elections and the majority of commune councilors will defect. ¶11. (SBU) Hockry said that the CPP always ensures that FUNCINPEC goes through a troubled patch a year or so before a national election. He predicted that Hun Sen will work to undermine Ranariddh for two reasons: first, to prevent the NRP from besting FUNCINPEC as that would be an embarrassment to the CPP and Hun Sen; and second, to prevent the NRP from aligning itself with the SRP - which remains the biggest threat to the CPP. The NRP Still Faces Electoral Obstacles -------------- ¶12. (U) Assembling a national party structure, manning offices, and setting up billboards are not easy tasks for a newly formed party to complete prior to April's communal council elections. Despite such difficulties, Muth Chantha, the NRP's Cabinet Director and an ex-senior staff member of the National Democracy Institute (NDI) in Cambodia, said nearly two thousand stickers with the NRP logos were already printed and ready for distribution. ¶13. (U) Another key issue that the NRP must resolve is to develop PHNOM PENH 00002144 003 OF 003 a candidate list for all communes in which the NRP will compete in the April 2007 election. Chantha said that the main candidates and reservists are already on board, and that the party plans to run for all 1,621 communes nationwide. According to the NEC's announcement, the 2007 election will elect 11,353 councilors. Observers predicted the two parties will compete heavily over candidates in early January, when the Communal Election Committees are scheduled to receive each party's list of candidates. ¶14. (U) In the area of finances, the NRP will be at a disadvantage, but Ranariddh loyalists believe that will not be a factor until the national elections in 2008. For the commune council elections, much of the electoral activity will be local in nature and incumbent commune councilors running as NRP candidates will be expected to share in the financial burden. A greater problem will arise with the national elections and the expectation among grassroots supporters of mass rallies complete with free food, transportation, gifts, etc. Easy access to the media - an impediment for all the parties apart from the CPP - will be even more problematic for the NRP, given the cost of airtime. Comment -------------- ¶15. (SBU) It's still early days in the lead up to the elections, and everyone with whom we spoke agreed much can and will likely change between now and election day - the first one coming in less than four months. It's worth remembering that one year ago, Rainsy was in exile in France, and soon to be convicted on defamation charges. Ranariddh was still firmly entrenched as Hun Sen's coalition partner. Now the roles are nearly reversed, as Ranariddh is out, and Rainsy - while still in opposition - is playing a more low-key and clever political game than he did before. Hun Sen's objective remains the same - to keep the opposition divided and ineffective. We continue to stress that we support no single party and the elections are best decided by the Cambodian voters - rather than through politically-motivated violence, lawsuits, or manipulation of the electoral process. End Comment.