CAN CAMBODIA'S DEMOCRATIC FORCES UNITE FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PHNOM PENH 001396

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CB
SUBJECT: CAN CAMBODIA'S DEMOCRATIC FORCES UNITE FOR
UPCOMING ELECTIONS?


Classified By: ADCM Margaret McKean; Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) Summary. On July 30, FUNCINPEC President Prince
Norodom Ranariddh called on all parties to unite in 2008 and
form an Alliance of Nationalists. In practice, the weakened
FUNCINPEC leader seeks to realign his party with the
opposition Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) and other pro-democracy
forces in the country to compete effectively in the 2008
national elections. CPP officials have dismissed the
proposal; the SRP leadership will consider Ranariddh's
proposal as long as the Prince steps down as FUNCINPEC
President and agrees that Sam Rainsy lead the alliance.
FUNCINPEC loyalists to the Prince have welcomed the
initiative as a means to salvage the royalist party's
following, as have other small political parties with little
hope of capturing any seats in upcoming elections. Civil
society agrees that an alliance offers an opportunity for
pro-democracy forces in 2008 -- given the 50 percent plus one
formula, but note that Cambodia's democratic leaders have
been unable to maintain a united front against the CPP in the
past. End Summary.

Ranariddh Offers Proposal for Alliance
--------------


2. (U) On July 30, FUNCINPEC leader Prince Norodom
Ranariddh met with senior FUNCINPEC officials in Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia and announced a proposal Alliance of
Nationalists to compete in national elections in 2008. While
theoretically open to all parties, the proposal is a means to
rekindle an alliance of pro-democracy forces along the lines
of the Alliance of Democrats (AD) that formed after the 2003
elections. The AD consisted of FUNCINPEC and the SRP, as
both parties had won seats in the national elections. The
CPP had won the most seats but still lacked the necessary
two-thirds majority in order to form a government, and needed
one of the parties to join with it as a governing partner.
In order to leverage their respective parties' seats into a
better power-sharing agreement for both FUNCINPEC and SRP,
the two parties (at Rainsy's initiative) formed the AD in
order to win greater concessions from the CPP. In the end,
however, Ranariddh made a deal with Hun Sen and joined the
government, leaving the SRP in opposition on its own. A
similar alliance took place following 1998 parliamentary
elections, after which FUNCINPEC deserted the SRP. This
time, Ranariddh is proposing that the parties join forces
ahead of the elections, rather than afterwards.


3. (SBU) Senior FUNCINPEC officials have welcomed the
initiative, which offers a ray of hope that FUNCINPEC can
maintain some of its party loyalists and compete in upcoming
elections in a stronger position than they could in their
current, divided and politically marginalized state. With
FUNCINPEC rank and file growing increasingly frustrated over
the party's internal power struggles, the removal of
FUNCINPEC officials from government positions, and lack of
leadership and focus from Ranariddh, FUNCINPEC members have
been defecting to the CPP as well as the SRP. In order to
halt the ongoing outflow of voters and reinvigorate
confidence in the party, Ranariddh's proposal provides
FUNCINPEC with hope that their party -- while unable to win a
clear majority of seats outright in 2008 -- could get back
into the political game with the SRP as a partner. Serei
Kosal, a Senior Minister in the government, claims that the
Alliance of Nationalists is a strategy for winning the 2008
elections if all pro-democracy forces unite.


4. (U) Ranariddh's proposed alliance was greeted
enthusiastically by several small political parties,
including the newly formed Community of Nationalists
Alliance, headed by Prince Sisowath Thomico, former personal
secretary to ex-King Sihanouk. Thomico, who several months

SIPDIS
earlier had told the Embassy that he planned to announce a
new political party, opted instead to form an alliance for
the time being with plans to transition to a political party
in November 2006. The nationalist Khmer Front Party, headed
by Suth Dina, has joined Thomico's alliance, as has Khieu
Rada, President of the Khmer Unity Party. Thomico has told
the media that in order to join the Alliance of Nationalists,
FUNCINPEC should break with its current governing partnership
with the CPP.

Sam Rainsy Considering Ranariddh's Proposal
--------------


5. (C) Senior SRP officials have indicated that they would
be willing to rejoin an alliance with FUNCINPEC but only if
Prince Ranariddh stepped down as leader of FUNCINPEC and Sam
Rainsy became the leader of the alliance. Some officials

PHNOM PENH 00001396 002 OF 002


expressed skepticism over the FUNCINPEC leader's intention,
noting that the SRP had been deceived by Ranariddh in the
past. In a July 31 meeting with A/DCM, Rainsy said that he
would consider Ranariddh's proposal but would proceed
cautiously before entering into any partnership. He and his
wife, Tioulong Saumura, agreed that Ranariddh's initiative
was a last grasp at keeping the ailing royalist party afloat
with any hopes of retaining a future political role. Noting
that FUNCINPEC's ability to win National Assembly seats has
consistently declined since 1993 as the SRP has continued to
grow in strength in the last two elections, Rainsy claimed
that the SRP is already gathering FUNCINPEC supporters at the
grassroots level, and may not need to enter into an alliance.
According to Ok Socheat, spokesperson for Prince Ranariddh,
Sam Rainsy and Ranariddh may meet in August, as talks between
the two parties continue.

Civil Society Response
--------------


6. (SBU) Representatives of civil society generally believe
that an alliance of pro-democracy forces could strengthen the
voice of the democratic opposition in upcoming elections, but
they too remain skeptical of Ranariddh's intentions. Hang
Puthear, Director of the Neutral and Impartial Committee for
Free and Fair Elections (NIFEC) views Ranariddh's proposal as
FUNCINPEC's last chance for political life. Puthear believes
that Ranariddh should reform FUNCINPEC first and rebuild the
party before entering into an alliance with the SRP and
others. Kek Galabru, Director of LICADHO, added that the
question of who will lead the alliance is key. The two
parties have had difficulties in maintaining their alliance
in the past and it remains an open question if the two men
can put behind their personal differences in the interest of
democracy. Kul Panha of COMFREL (Committee for Free and Fair
Elections) believes that the 50 percent plus one formula
gives FUNCINPEC and SRP a new opportunity to provide real
competition to the CPP in 2008. Human rights leader Kem
Sokha told the Ambassador and A/DCM that he has no position
on the alliance and does not support the agenda of any single
party.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) In theory, a merging of pro-democracy forces to take
advantage of the 50 percent plus one formula offers the best
opportunity for democratic change in Cambodia; at the very
least, it would give the CPP a challenge in the 2008
elections. The CPP's party structure remains stronger than
either FUNCINPEC or the SRP with greater control down to the
grassroots levels. Both FUNCINPEC and the SRP would have to
significantly ramp up their organizational capacity to mount
a challenge, even if they did agree to unite. In practice,
however, Cambodia's democratic-minded politicians have been
unable to keep their lingering personal animosities and egos
in check and make the sacrifices necessary to hold an
alliance together. The CPP has proven adept at splintering
the opposition, making a unified democratic front a difficult
challenge. We had heard proposals from FUNCINPEC and SRP
officials for a joining of forces earlier in the year, but
there was agreement that the formation of any alliance would
likely be just before the 2008 elections so that the CPP
would not have time to undermine the partnership. FUNCINPEC
officials will be returning shortly to Malaysia to discuss
the SRP reaction with Ranariddh, and then come back to
Cambodia early next week for further deliberations. End
Comment.
MUSSOMELI