ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRIED'S MEETING WITH JACQUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 007795 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, AND EB DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2015 TAGS: PGOV ELAB EUN PINR SOCI ECON PREL FR SUBJECT: ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRIED'S MEETING WITH JACQUES ATTALI PARIS 00007795 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador Craig Stapleton for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Assistant Secretary Fried met with recognized intellectual and long-time Segolene Royal confidant Jacques Attali on December 6. Attali underlined that Royal, even though she is a leading contender for France's presidency in next spring's elections, has had very little experience making and implementing foreign policy. Attali said that Royal's "worldview is still unformed," and that she is riding a steep learning curve during her current round of trips abroad. Attali repeatedly used the word "amazing" to describe what he characterized as Royal's uncanny talent for successfully braving her way through the minefields of international issues -- he cited her trip this week to Lebanon, Israel and Palestinian Authority territory -- and, despite near-fatal missteps, and notwithstanding her inexperience, emerging unscathed. Attali pointed to Royal's visit to Israel earlier this week as an example of how deft, attentive handling of her initial, defensive hostility can be turned to sympathetic good-will. Attali recommended that the U.S. take a cue from the Israelis' success and give Royal "red-carpet respect" during her upcoming trip to the U.S. -- and replace her unformed, distrustful pre-disposition (typical of the French left) with an attitude more inclined to listen to and understand U.S. views and policies. ¶2. (C) Summary, continued: A/S Fried and Attali agreed that "Europe is at a very challenging moment" -- and Attali went so far as to say that "expansion has cost Europe its identity." A/S Fried and Attali agreed that Turkey's decreasing interest in joining Europe, along with Europe's "slamming the door" on Turkey were leading "to a strategic disaster" that could separate Turkey from the community of Western democracies. A/S Fried and Attali also agreed that the growing authoritarianism of Putin's rule in Russia was a grave setback for the spread of liberal democracy. End Summary. ATTALI'S SUGGESTION FOR GOAL OF ROYAL VISIT TO U.S. -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) In his meeting at the Embassy with A/S Fried on December 6, Jacques Attali characterized Socialist Party presidential front-runner Segolene Royal's world-view as "still unformed." Attali recalled that he had "known Royal for nearly 30 years now" and had been instrumental in recruiting her for Mitterrand's staff in 1981, just after Mitterrand's election to his first term. Attali also said that "about seven years ago I got the idea that Royal could become president of France -- I wrote to her about it, and she didn't believe me. But later, little by little, she began to see the possibility herself." (Note: Though Attali has no official position in Royal's campaign organization nor in the Socialist Party (PS),we believe he remains one of her more influential advisors. End Note) Attali made no effort to hide his concern that Royal's lack of experience in foreign affairs could lead to a damaging performance on her part -- for example, during a hastily planned visit to the U.S. when crossed expectations might well "set her off on the wrong foot" in connection with her still uninformed views of the U.S. But he argued that a deftly handled Royal visit to the U.S. could be a key "formative experience" for her, central to her development into a leader -- should she become president of France -- able to both understand and trust the U.S. ¶4. (C) Attali underlined that Royal, in her personality and her politics, is instinctively combative, and has long, and successfully, defined herself by championing the underdog and defying the powers-that-be. Attali observed that many people in France, particularly those reared politically on the French left, congenitally mistrust American capitalism and American power, and Royal is not any different. A/S Fried and Attali agreed that Royal's experience in the U.S., should she visit in the near future, should have the effect of defusing this defensiveness, and lay the groundwork for a more instinctively sympathetic view of the U.S. Attali held out Royal's recent visit to Israel as an example of how to PARIS 00007795 002.2 OF 003 shape successfully her perceptions to long-term advantage. According to Attali, Royal arrived in Israel disposed to be "pro-Palestinian and anti-Israeli," but deft "red-carpet respectful" handling by the Israelis -- including a private dinner hosted by Foreign Minister Tipi Livni -- clearly prompted Royal to question her pre-conceptions. Attali suggested that the U.S should use a similar tactic, especially given Royal's reflexive reservations about the role of American power in general, and the Bush administrations' policies in particular. "SHE HAS LITTLE EXPERIENCE -- BUT SHE'S LEARNING FAST" -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Attali underlined that Royal is the most formidable political figure in France today -- "if the election were held today, she would win, hands-down." (Note: this is a view supported by current polls. End Note.) Attali repeatedly used the word "amazing" to describe how the force of Royal's conviction carries her through -- as often as not with flying colors -- despite her inexperience, particularly in connection with foreign relations issues. As an example of this talent for unflinchingly braving her way through anything, Attali pointed to Royal's recent trip to Lebanon, and how she emerged unscathed notwithstanding some close calls with statements that required considerable clarification after the fact. It remained to be seen if this teflon quality would carry through the election and beyond, but, as Attali also stressed, Royal has persistently proved wrong all who have underestimated her. "She's leaning all the time, and learning fast," Attali concluded. Attali pressed on A/S Fried his view that the U.S. would do well pro-actively to take advantage of Royal's current, relative "malleability" with regard to her views about the U.S. EUROPE -------------- ¶6. (C) Attali called EU enlargement "a disaster." He said the extension of Europe to 25/27 member states "had cost Europe its identity," in addition to making the union "unmanageable" and therefore incapable of making any meaningful plans for the future. As evidence for this view, Attali pointed to the upcoming fiftieth anniversary of the Rome treaty next year, and "the way there's nothing on the agenda because we can't do anything." Mentioning the German presidency of the EU (January - June 2007) Attali rhetorically asked, "Do you know when Germany will hold the Presidency again?" He then mentioned the next French presidency (January - June 2008),and asked the same question. The respective answers, 2021 and 2022, in Attali's view, speak volumes about why the EU system of governance promises to produce paralysis, not leadership. TURKEY -------------- ¶7. (C) A/S Fried called Turkey's potential separation from the community of Western democracies a "strategic disaster for all of us." A/S Fried and Attali discussed how growing indifference in Turkey towards joining Europe and rejection of Turkey's inclusion in Europe among Europeans were reinforcing each other, pushing Turkey in the wrong direction. Commenting on burgeoning anti-Turkey sentiment in European publics, Attali lamented the "shortsightedness of Europeans," saying that "short-term political use" of the issue could easily scuttle any chance of binding Turkey, inseparably, to Europe and democracy. Referring to the role the issue of Turkey's membership in the EU is likely to play in France's upcoming presidential campaign, Attali identified France as "being in the lead" with regard to this shortsightedness. RUSSIA -------------- ¶8. (C) While pointing out that "we'll work with the Russians where we can," A/S Fried commented that Putin's growing authoritarianism was a grave setback to the spread of liberal democracy. He pointed to Vice President Cheney's speech in Vilnius last May as a noteworthy example of the U.S. speaking PARIS 00007795 003.2 OF 003 out against Russia's current trending toward de facto dictatorship. Attali lamented "the cowardice of the Europeans," excoriating them for not standing up to Putin's power grab lest the Russians use the "oil and gas weapon." Attali compared the rise of revanchist sentiment in Russia (over the "unfair" loss of the Cold War) to analogous feeling in Weimar Germany over defeat in WWI, adding, "but the Russians have oil -- and Hitler didn't." A/S Fried suggested a better parallel might be the USSR after America's defeat in Vietnam, suggesting that U.S. difficulties in Iraq and with Iran were emboldening the Russians. ¶9. (U) A/S Fried has cleared this message. Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm STAPLETON