CHAD: FRENCH BELIEVE REBEL OFFENSIVE HAS RUNS ITS

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 007548 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2016 TAGS: PREL PINR MOPS PGOV PINS CD FR SUBJECT: CHAD: FRENCH BELIEVE REBEL OFFENSIVE HAS RUNS ITS COURSE REF: A. N'DJAMENA 1360 ¶B. N'DJAMENA 1358 ¶C. N'DJAMENA 1357 ¶D. N'DJAMENA 1356 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: MFA officials on November 27 said that the rebel offensive in Chad seemed to be subsiding after gains that peaked during the weekend. They believed that rebel elements were withdrawing eastward towards Sudan. President Deby, in contact with French officials in N'djamena, seemed confident that the GOC had weathered this crisis. As of today (November 27),France has taken no steps towards evacuating its nationals. MFA Acting DAS-equivalent Guisnel expressed concern that the instability emanating from Darfur was having a particularly negative effect in the Central African Republic and she urged that in seeking a solution to the Darfur problem, all parties consider as well the situation in countries neighboring Sudan, such as the C.A.R. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) MFA acting DAS-equivalent Isabelle Guisnel and Chad deskoff Michael Deslaimes provided us with a readout on Chad on November 27. They reported that the rebel offensive seemed to have reached its high-water mark over the weekend and was now subsiding. According to the most recent GOF information, rebel elements were apparently withdrawing eastward, in the direction of Sudan. Deslaimes said that the GOC's military response had been sufficiently forceful and that rebel elements understood that the balance of force favored the government side. Faced with this reality, the rebels had decided to pull back. ¶3. (C) Deslaimes said that N'djamena was reportedly calm on November 27 with a normal level of activity. GOC military forces were visible in N'djamena but "not at an unusually high level." Deslaimes said that the current crisis was far less severe than the April crisis, when rebel forces presented a much greater threat to the government. Deslaimes reported that the GOC seemed firmly in control of Abeche and that the military base there remained secured, with life slowly returning to normal in the town, although it had apparently been well looted by the rebels during their short period of control. ¶4. (C) Deslaimes said that the GOF had been in communication with President Deby at several points during the current rebel offensive and that he seemed confident and in control. Deby believed that he had successfully weathered the current crisis, Deslaimes reported. Newly-arrived French Ambassador Bruno Foucher had presented his credentials prior to the rebel offensive and fortunately did not need a break-in period. Deslaimes said that Foucher intended to maintain close communications with the U.S. Embassy. The French Embassy to date had taken no steps to implement a drawdown or evacuation, Deslaimes added. DARFUR AND CONCERNS ABOUT C.A.R. ¶5. (C) Acting DAS-equivalent Guisnel said that the rebel offensive in Chad underscored the importance of taking regional factors into consideration in attempting to craft a solution to the Darfur problem. She expressed particular concern about C.A.R., where she said conditions were worsening and where anti-government elements seemed to be more of a permanent and threatening presence. She attributed this development in part to the broad negative effect that Darfur was having on Sudan's neighbors, whose own fragility made them especially vulnerable to the violence, criminality, and inhumanity emanating from Darfur. Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm STAPLETON