FRENCH HOPEFUL ON NABIH BERRI, CAUTIOUS ON

S E C R E T PARIS 007417 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2016 TAGS: FR KDEM LE PGOV PREL SY SUBJECT: FRENCH HOPEFUL ON NABIH BERRI, CAUTIOUS ON HIZBALLAH Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) On November 15, Damien Loras, Foreign Minister Douste-Blazy's cabinet advisor on the Middle East, said the Quai d'Orsay was encouraged by Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's role in trying to bridge the gap between Hizballah and the March 14 forces. Loras conceded that the resignations of Berri's Amal ministers from PM Siniora's cabinet was a "disappointment," although he added that Berri had little room for maneuver once Hizballah decided to pull its ministers from the government. More significant, in Loras' view, was the fact that Berri used his visit to Tehran this week to publicly state that PM Siniora's cabinet was within its rights to approve the draft legislation setting up an international tribunal for the Hariri assassination. "Extremely helpful," said Loras. (Later, after seeing a December 15 statement in which Berri appeared to walk back his declaration by impying that the December 13 cabinet meeting violated the Lebanese national compact and was therefore "unconstitutional," Loras wondered whether he had spoken too soon.) ¶2. (S) Loras confided that, subsequent to his statement in Iran, Berri asked the French Embassy in Beirut to deliver a message to the March 14 coalition offering his continued services in trying to bridge the differences between the March 14 group and Hizballah. The French delivered the mail for Berri, and told him his message was well-received. ¶3. (C) Loras said the Quai was therefore slightly more optimistic now about the overall situation in Lebanon than it had been at the beginning of this week. He noted continuing discussions in Beirut about expanding the cabinet to include a "swing seat," held by someone not aligned with any of the existing cabinet factions, aimed at preventing the emergence of either a blocking minority or a dominant majority -- thereby promoting a more consensual government. While he assessed that it was still more likely than not that Hizballah would hold out for a blocking minority and would eventually resort to street demonstrations, he acknowledged that it was possible to imagine a more optimistic scenario whereby Hizballah, having demonstrated ostensible fealty to Damascus by withdrawing its ministers from the cabinet, would decline to launch demonstrations on the grounds that doing so would cause too much damage to its standing with the Lebanese public. ¶4. (S) Comment: The French MFA has been somewhat enamored of the Lebanese Parliament Speaker ever since Berri served as an intermediary between the Siniora government and Hizballah during this summer's fighting. If Berri used the auspices of the French Embassy to convey a message to the March 14 leadership, we suspect he did so in part to ensure that the French would continue to perceive him as helpful. Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm STAPLETON