ISRAELI DIPLOMAT THINKS WORST IS OVER ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 007118

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2016
TAGS: FR IS LE PGOV PREL SY
SUBJECT: ISRAELI DIPLOMAT THINKS WORST IS OVER ON
OVERFLIGHT SPAT WITH FRANCE

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S) Summary: The Israeli PolCouns told us 10/26 that "the
worst is over" in terms of the public spat between France and
Israel regarding overflights of Lebanon. The Israeli MFA has
advised the Israeli Air Force to "cool it," and the French
have assured the GoI that UNIFIL's commander will soon be
reassigned. Aphek assessed that the French would secretly
welcome periodic overflights of Lebanon, and she noted that
her embassy enjoys excellent access to new French MFA
Political Director Gerard Araud. She interpreted Chirac's
appointment of Jean-Pierre Jouyet (a close advisor to leading
Socialist Party presidential candidate Segolene Royal) to
coordinate the Paris-3 conference on Lebanon as evidence of
Chirac's determination to ensure his Lebanon/Syria policy
survives his presidency. End summary.

Overflight Crisis Over?
--------------


2. (S) Israeli Embassy Political Counselor Ella Aphek told us
October 26 that she believes "the worst is over" in terms of
recent tensions among Israel, UNIFIL and France with respect
to Israeli overflights of Lebanon. Aphek described the
Israeli Air Force (IAF) overflights of Beirut on October 23
as a deliberately muscular response to comments made by
French Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie (MAM) during an
October 20 press conference at the UN. Alliot-Marie
reportedly said that Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace
were dangerous "because they may be perceived as hostile by
forces of the coalition that could be brought to retaliate in
cases of self defense." Although French President Jacques
Chirac voiced a simultaneous call for an end to the Israeli
overflights, the Israelis found MAM's comments more irksome
because "Alliot-Marie implied a threat, and Chirac did not,"
explained Aphek. She dismissed the comments of UNIFIL's
commander, (French) Major General Alain Pellegrini, regarding
a possible expansion of UNIFIL's rules of engagement to
prevent overflights, by saying that France had privately
assured Israel that Pellegrini would soon be reassigned.


3. (S) Aphek said that in response to the October 23
overflights, the Elysee "clearly leaked" the story (reported
by Le Figaro and Le Monde the following day) that France was
considering scaling back its commitment to UNIFIL. However,
she did not seem greatly troubled by that report, and noted
that Chirac had previously warned Israeli Ambassador Shek
that France would reassess its deployment of peacekeepers
after three or four months. Moreover, Aphek confided that
the Israeli MFA had advised the IAF to "cool it" on
overflights for the time being. In addition, she noted a
positive meeting between Israeli Ambassador Shek and Jean
Felix-Pagagnon, the MFA's Director for the Middle East and
North Africa, on October 25 during which Felix-Pagagnon
stressed that the Quai was consulting closely with French
intelligence services on ways to share more intelligence with
Israel to obviate the need for overflights. Aphek noted that
in turn, Israel was considering French suggestions (e.g., no
low-altitude overflights of Beirut, use of drones rather than
F-16s, and greater reliance on satellite imagery). The
irony, said Aphek, was that the French did not really wish to
see a complete end to the overflights because they shared
Israel's interest in detecting any arms shipments to
Hizballah. The message the GoI had taken away from its
discussions with French officials was that an overflight
"from time to time" would not be such a bad thing. (Comment:
We take this analysis with half a grain of salt. End
comment.)


4. (C) On a related note, Aphek observed that Israel had an
excellent working relationship with the Quai's new Political
Director (and former Ambassador to Israel) Gerard Araud. She
noted that Araud had proven exceptionally effective during
his tenure in Israel, and that his positive approach had
already carried over to his new assignment. "We had good
relations with Ambassador de Laboulaye (Araud's predecessor),
but it was never anything like this," said Aphek, who noted
that Araud and Israeli Ambassador Shek have swapped cell
phone numbers and are in almost daily contact. "We have a hot
line," she said with contentment.

Peace Process
--------------


5. (C) Turning to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process,
Aphek stressed that the return of kidnapped Cpl. Gilad Shalit
was the key to progress. She predicted that PM Olmert would
meet with PA President Abbas once Shalit was released, in
part to reassure his electorate, and Israel's neighbors, that
his government would remain a partner for peace
notwithstanding the inclusion of MK Avigdor Lieberman in the
cabinet. She assessed that Hamas leader Khalid Mishal
remained a key impediment to Shalit's release, as did the
Asad regime -- which she characterized as "counting the days"
until the end of President Chirac's mandate in the hope that
France would then revise its Syria policy. However, she said
that Chirac's appointment of former Paris Club president
Jean-Pierre Jouyet -- a close advisor of leading Socialist
Party presidential contender Segolene Royal -- as coordinator
of the upcoming Paris-3 conference on Lebanon was a sign
Chirac was bent on ensuring his Lebanon/Syria policy would
survive his presidency. (Note: During a visit to Lebanon
late last week, Socialist Party chief Francois Hollande
assured local journalists that a Socialist president would
maintain Chirac's commitment to Lebanon but would rely less
on personal relationships, noting that the Socialist party
has stronger historical ties to the Jumblatts than to the
Hariris. End note.) With respect to the Quartet, Aphek
assessed that French officials continue to pay lip service to
the Roadmap but are, in fact, eager to escape the Roadmap's
sequencing constraints.

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm
HOFMANN