THE FUSE AND THE POWDER KEG: FRANCE ONE YEAR AFTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PARIS 007084 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED -- HANDLE ACCORDINGLY E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PHUM SOCI ELAB FR PGOV SUBJECT: THE FUSE AND THE POWDER KEG: FRANCE ONE YEAR AFTER ITS SUBURBS BURNED REF: 2005 PARIS 7835 PARIS 00007084 001.2 OF 004 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: One year after violent unrest lit up France's underclass suburbs for three weeks, the country's poor suburban neighborhoods remain troubled. Religious identity in these largely Muslim areas was not a significant causal factor then, nor has it become one now. Instead, failures in education, housing and jobs -- and widespread discrimination in all three -- are seen as the critical underlying factors. A year after these events, France is assessing the state of its immigrant underclass, and the government's efforts to promote integration and enhance security over the past year. The picture is decidedly mixed. Violent restiveness among young men persists despite highly-touted government policies designed to better their situation. The government claims it has in place both long-term and short-term policies that are improving the situation, but an unfortunate incident could again spark a resurgence of violent unrest among underclass youths. END SUMMARY. One Year Ago -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On October 27, 2005, the accidental deaths by electrocution of two youths hiding from police in a power transformer installation sparked widespread urban unrest across France that lasted weeks. Last year's unrest (reftel) caused considerable property damage, put France -- in images of burning cars and riot police clashing with hooded youths -- on television screens around the world, and shook the confidence of the French in the "French integration model" and their society's capacity to integrate its recent waves of immigrants. The unrest, which began in the suburbs of Paris, soon spread to disadvantaged neighborhoods in cities and towns across the country. The extent of the unrest was sobering. During the weeks of turmoil some 300 towns were affected, more than 6,000 cars were burned, and some 1,800 individuals were taken in for questioning. The relentless deployment of police and gendarmes led some police union leaders to caution about overstretch of individuals and units. During the unrest, the government invoked emergency measures, including curfews, last used in the 1960s during the war in Algeria. But there was only one death, and it was not attributed to any police action. Poor Suburbs Remain Troubled -------------- ¶3. (SBU) At the center of this unrest last year were groups of youths, some barely in their teens. These youths are almost all of Arab or African (and mostly Muslim) backgrounds. By and large, last year and now, religion is not particularly important in their lives. These youths have been characterized as "the third generation;" their immigrant grandparents often having come to France from rural backgrounds with little education to fill the most menial jobs. The majority of these youths are French citizens, who have only known the stressful impoverishment and mean streets of France's suburban neighborhoods. There is considerable disagreement as to the exact composition and size of the "socially excluded" population of which these youths are a part. The French government termed 75 neighborhoods "sensitive urban zones." In particular the young in this population feel disconnected from the national culture, brought from their North- and Sub-Saharan African countries of origin, that may have structured life for parents and grandparents. These youths also feel little connection to French culture (indeed, they feel stonily rejected by French society). As the mayor of one of these beleaguered "urban zones" (Clichy-sur-Bois) put it to Poloff in a recent conversation, "these kids start seeing themselves as citizens of nothing." In addition to the fear and anger that dominates their lives, most also suffer from low self-esteem and lack of confidence -- which compounds the difficulty of getting a job. The mayors of these towns are unanimous in their conviction that if parents and kids had jobs, most of their towns' social problems would go away. But that has not yet happened. According to the Ministry of Employment Social Cohesion and Housing's Task Force on Sensitive Urban Zones the unemployment rate in these areas is over 21 percent overall (and rising),and, for young men under 25, it jumps to 36 percent (2005 figures). Four Buses Burned in Past Week PARIS 00007084 002.2 OF 004 -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In the week preceding the "anniversary" of the beginning of last year's unrest, four buses have been burned in troubled suburban neighborhoods. In these attacks -- according to police, clearly planned rather than random violence -- large groups of hooded youths waited in ambush near a stop for a bus to pull up, then streamed aboard, forced the passengers and driver off the bus, and then torched the vehicle. So far, there have been no injuries in these attacks. One of Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy's closest advisors flatly told Poloff on October 26 that "these attacks are countermoves against us by the criminal elements in the suburbs because we are succeeding against them." The similarity of the "tactics" used in the four incidents, the organization exhibited by the attackers, and the fact that some of the attackers may have been armed with guns -- still relatively hard to obtain in France -- lends credence to the view that these recent incidents may well be an effort by the criminal organizations that also thrive in France's poor suburbs to "hit back" against the interior ministry's aggressive anti-crime efforts in these areas. "The Fuse and the Powder Keg" -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In the aftermath of last year's unrest, Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin promised to make taking action against the problems underlying the violence his government's top priority. Villepin laid out an ambitious agenda to increase equal opportunity, adapt education, generate jobs and provide housing, and there has been some incremental progress. But the underlying situation remains largely unchanged, leading to a climate in which a constantly simmering, low level of violence -- setting fire to garbage bins, taunting police and tossing rocks and bottles at passing police cars, etc. risks boiling over. The mayors of many of these towns, recently interviewed for press reports on the situation, nearly all expressed their apprehension that an unforeseen incident could spark a reaction of rage, and set off another wave of widespread unrest. In the words of Jean-Christophe Lagarde, mayor of Drancy (also in the suburbs of Paris),"It's not enough to stamp out the fuse that leads to the powder keg; we've also got to empty the powder keg." Long-term Programs to "Empty the Powder Keg" -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Over the last twelve months the Villepin government has reinforced many existing social programs and undertaken a number of new initiatives. Social Solidarity Minister Jean-Louis Borloo, who oversees a massive range of long-term housing and employment services programs, has claimed, in effect, that the powder keg, albeit slowly, is being emptied as well as can reasonably be expected. In this view, bettering social conditions in France's poor suburbs is clearly a long-term undertaking, eventual success of which is highly dependent on political leadership and effective social and economic policy. A convincing vision of an equal opportunity France must be articulated, along with implementation of polices that channel the effects of economic growth, expansion of labor markets, investment in human capital, etc., to those most in need of launching their boats on the rising tide. Borloo is the government's leading spokesperson for what he calls "realism" about what it will take to engineer lasting social progress. Critics of the government, particularly the opposition Socialist Party (PS) mayors of these often formerly working class suburbs, argue the government is moving too slowly and that its programs are overly geared to the long term. Visible Fixes and Short-term Hopes -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Citing France's egalitarian "republicanism," PM Villepin and President Chirac have rejected outright any steps towards affirmative action (called "positive discrimination" in France). However, Villepin spearheaded draft legislation to create an agency for equal opportunity, and initiated programs to guarantee access to top universities for minority students. Villepin also pushed programs to permit apprenticeships starting at age 14 for students in difficulty (an exception to France's current child labor standards and to its current school attendance standards),and institute voluntary civic service. The new Equal Opportunity Agency, which is only now getting off the PARIS 00007084 003.2 OF 004 ground, has just been accorded a 2007 budget of more than 500 million Euros (627 million Dollars). The agency aims to help people in disadvantaged neighborhoods and immigrant populations to fight discrimination and make up their educational shortfalls. The agency will also encourage voluntary community service. While Reforming Immigration and Deterring Crime -------------- -- ¶8. (SBU) To address the concerns of the silent majority frightened by the unrest, the government also tightened some immigration controls and showed itself tough on crime. In November 2005, primarily to discourage illegal migration through fraudulent marriage and parentage claims, it made some minor changes to immigration regulation. Interior Minister (and presidential hopeful) Nicholas Sarkozy has gone even further, proposing to his EU counterparts the creation of an EU-wide immigration policy that would prohibit mass amnesties and humanitarian parole except on a case-by-case basis. He has also urged tougher treatment of youthful offenders, advocating treating repeat offenders ages 16 to 18 as adults rather than minors, and recommending mandatory minimum sentences for those who attack police officers. This latest proposal came after several recent incidents in which large numbers of urban youth -- 50 or more -- attacked officers trying to make arrests or patrol in their neighborhoods. The rising numbers of police officers injured in the line of duty, an increase in part due to confrontations in troubled suburbs, is itself a matter of concern to the public, police authorities, and police unions. On October 17, at ceremony honoring officers injured in the line of duty, Interior Minister Sarkozy paid tribute to the "2,890 police officer injured in the line of duty since January 1, 2006." Crime and Prejudice, and Social Unrest -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Some police representatives, and many Sarkozy supporters, attribute much of the persisting violence not to rampaging youths but to crime bosses in the neighborhoods, who have a strong interest in keeping drug markets and other activities free of police interference. But the interaction of the police with residents of these communities, particularly their young men, may also be a negative contributing factor. Anecdotal evidence suggests strongly that police officers sometimes single out young Arabs or Africans walking on the street and ask them for identification papers. Moreover, the residents of disadvantaged neighborhoods resent police checkpoints and constant surveillance of their neighborhoods by undercover police officers in unmarked cars. (The youths who died by electrocution a year ago, according to some press reports, initially ran away from a police checkpoint.) The cycle of mistrust and resentment thus engendered -- and captured so vividly already years ago in a French film called "Hatred" -- risks making a bad situation worse and could spark the very outbreaks of violence it aims to preempt. Sarkozy, Suburban Unrest, and the Presidential Campaign -------------- -------------- ¶10. (SBU) What to do about the security dimension of the problem -- both the organized crime and the simmering social unrest -- in these neighborhoods puts Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy at center stage. Sarkozy, who is also a leading candidate for election as France's president in next Spring's election, has founded his credibility as a national leader on his commitment to law-and-order. Sarkozy has continued to emphasize police presence and zero-tolerance towards law-breakers as essential if "the Republic is to protect all its citizens on all its territory." Sarkozy's detractors argue that this "repressive" strategy (its implementation on the ground often entrusted to inexperienced policemen) has served to exacerbate tensions, creating a dynamic of challenge and response between youths and police that has served to make a bad situation worse. True to form, Sarkozy has stuck to his guns, aggressively defending his policies and the work being done by his policemen and women. In a series of recent, (and, as usual, also highly publicized appearances),Sarkozy has projected himself as the political leader most credibly engaged on the front lines of the cross-cutting issues of immigration reform, domestic tranquility, and safe streets. These issues, all largely PARIS 00007084 004.2 OF 004 driven by the fears generated by the violence perpetrated by the minority of angry, alienated youngsters in suburban neighborhoods, are likely to be significant factors in the upcoming presidential campaign. Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm HOFMANN