PARIS CLUB - OCTOBER 2006 TOUR D'HORIZON AND MALAWI DEBT

UNCLAS PARIS 006993 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EB/IFD/OMA TREASURY FOR DO/IDD AND OUSED/IMF SECDEF FOR USDP/DSAA PASS EXIM FOR CLAIMS -- EDELARIVA PASS USDA FOR CCC -- ALEUNG/DERICKSON/KCHADWICK PASS USAID FOR CLAIMS PASS DOD FOR DSCS -- PBERG BELGRADE PASS TO PODGORICA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EFIN ECON EAID XM XA XH XB XF FR SUBJECT: PARIS CLUB - OCTOBER 2006 TOUR D'HORIZON AND MALAWI DEBT NEGOTIATION SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) At the October 18-19 meeting of the Paris Club, creditors canceled 354 million of Malawi's 363 million dollars of Paris Club debt as its completion point treatment under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative. The US was not a creditor. The Club provided financing assurances for Haiti's Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF),which is scheduled to be submitted to the IMF Board on November 20, together with a proposed HIPC decision point for Haiti. Negotiations in the Paris Club are expected in December. Creditors agreed on the division of a 100 million dollar payment Angola will make on November 1 as a good will gesture toward clearing its 2.3 billion dollars in arrears. The US will not receive any payment since it has no arrears. The World Bank reported that Angola has borrowed 14 billion dollars from China on non-concessional terms. END SUMMARY. -------------- AFGHANISTAN -------------- ¶2. (U) The US announced that it had signed its bilateral agreement with Afghanistan implementing the July 2006 agreed minute. Germany said it had submitted a draft bilateral agreement to Afghanistan's advisors. Russia said it hoped to do the same soon. The IMF urged all three creditors to respond to a request by Afghanistan for debt data needed to assess the country's eligibility and qualification for HIPC. (The US has responded to the request.) -------------- ANGOLA -------------- ¶3. (U) Angola remains interested in a possible Stand-By Arrangement with the IMF, but Finance Minister de Morais told the Fund that he needs more time to build internal support. In the meantime, Angola has agreed to resume debt service in full to its Paris Club creditors and to make a 100 million dollar payment toward its 2.3 billion dollars in arrears as a goodwill gesture. According to a formula agreed by creditors, the 100 million dollars will be divided up based on each creditor's total arrears (excluding late interest) and previous payments received. The US will not receive any of the 100 million since Angola owes neither arrears nor late interest to the US. The secretariat will send a letter to the authorities welcoming their commitment to normalize relations with the Club but rejecting their request for the cancellation of 1.8 billion dollars in late interest. Creditors remain united in the view that a Paris Club treatment is not possible in the absence of an IMF program. Separately, the World Bank reported that Angola is believed to have borrowed 14 billion dollars from China on non-concessional terms. The Bank said this is a breach of its free rider policy. ¶4. (SBU) In a small informal meeting called to discuss export credit policy in Argentina, the US informed the Secretariat, Germany, Japan and Spain of US Ex-Im Bank's credit support of an asset-backed lease of aircraft for TAAG, the Angolan state-owned airline. Reaction was muted, with the Secretariat commenting that the underlying sale was old news. -------------- ARGENTINA -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Argentina's ambassador to France told Paris Club President Musca that Argentina plans to make a proposal to the club by the end of the year. Given Argentina's 30 billion dollars in reserves and the unlikelihood that Argentina will seek a new IMF program, creditors remarked that the simplest way for Argentina to normalize relations would be to clear its 3.5 billion dollars in arrears. The UK anticipates that Argentina will ask for a 10-year rescheduling, but no debt reduction. The US, UK, and Spain said a formal debt restructuring would not be possible without an IMF program. The Netherlands, joined by France and Spain, stressed that Argentina's main incentive for normalizing relations is to access new financing from member countries' export credit agencies (ECAs). To maintain this leverage, the Paris Club needs to stick together as a group and withhold new financing until relations have been normalized. France acknowledged that the Paris Club has no authority to dictate the policies of its members' ECAs, but encouraged member delegations to keep their ECAs informed about Paris Club developments. -------------- CAMBODIA -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The IMF continues to await resolution of the bilateral debt dispute between Russia and Cambodia that is holding up approval of a new PRGF. Russia said Cambodia still has not responded to an earlier Russian proposal for treating post-cutoff debt (the main point of contention). Japan asked the IMF whether only arrears needed to be rescheduled and whether a concessional treatment was necessary. (In an earlier meeting in Washington, Japan had suggested that only US arrears needed to be rescheduled). The IMF responded that its most recent Debt Sustainability Analysis made some broad assumptions to get a general picture of Cambodia's debt situation, but that the assumptions should not be considered indicative of any future debt treatment in the Paris Club. The US noted that all Paris Club creditors would have to participate in a rescheduling. The secretariat said it was premature to discuss the terms of a future treatment. (In a private discussion over lunch, the head of the Japanese delegation explained that Japan cannot proceed with a planned development assistance loan to Cambodia, to be co-financed by the Asian Development Bank, if there is a risk that Cambodia will receive debt reduction from the Paris Club. Thus, Japan wishes to exclude the possibility of a concessional treatment, on the grounds that debt reduction is not necessary to achieve debt sustainability.) -------------- CONGO-BRAZZAVILLE -------------- ¶7. (U) Spain, Germany, Switzerland, and Russia reported delays in concluding their bilateral agreements implementing the March 2006 decision point agreed minute. (The US also has not completed its bilateral agreement.) The secretariat will send a letter to the authorities extending the deadline for concluding bilateral agreements until end-January 2007. -------------- ECUADOR -------------- ¶8. (U) The IMF said it was not aware of any formal proposals by either of the two leading presidential candidates to restructure Ecuador's external debt, although some interest has been expressed in an Argentina-type bond restructuring. The IMF noted that there was no economic justification for an external bond restructuring, and that a bond restructuring would generate little savings since most of Ecuador's public debt is owed to multilateral institutions. -------------- GRENADA -------------- ¶9. (U) Belgium, France, Russia, and the US said they had sent their draft bilateral agreements to the authorities implementing the May 2006 agreed minute, but had not received any response. At the suggestion of the US, the secretariat will try to contact the Grenadian finance minister by phone. -------------- HAITI -------------- ¶10. (U) Creditors provided financing assurances for Haiti's new PRGF, which is scheduled to come before the IMF executive board on November 20, together with HIPC decision point. The Fund reported that Haiti's external debt totals 1.3 billion dollars, 14 percent of which is owed to Paris Club creditors. Negotiations with Haiti in the Paris Club are anticipated for December. -------------- IRAQ -------------- ¶11. (U) Russia said it was "finalizing internal procedures" necessary to sign its bilateral agreement with Iraq. (Russia remains the only Paris Club creditor that has yet to conclude its bilateral agreement implementing the December 2004 agreed minute.) The secretariat reported that the Kuwaiti parliament has refused to cancel debt owed by Iraq, and the finance minister has declared that Kuwait is not a member of the Paris Club and therefore is not obligated to provide debt relief on Paris Club terms. The secretariat will prepare a letter to the Kuwaiti authorities urging SIPDIS them to provide comparable treatment. -------------- KENYA -------------- ¶12. (U) The IMF said completion of the second review of Kenya's PRGF was contingent on: (1) improved governance; (2) agreement on a macroeconomic framework and structural reform agenda; and (3) measures to address fiscal slippages. The secretariat confirmed that the third phase of the current Paris Club agreement, which provides for the rescheduling of 2006 maturities, cannot enter into force retroactively if the second review of the PRGF is not completed by the end of this year. The secretariat reminded creditors that, according to a policy agreed in 2000, those creditors that are currently billing Kenya for maturities falling due must be prepared to reimburse any payments received should the third phase of the agreement enter into force retroactively. (This may be at odds with USG policy regarding re-crediting.) The secretariat will send a previously drafted letter to the Kenyan SIPDIS authorities alerting them to the current state of events. -------------- MALAWI -------------- ¶13. (U) Malawi received its HIPC completion point treatment. Creditors agreed to cancel 180 million dollars in claims, plus an additional 174 million on a voluntary, bilateral basis. As a result, Malawi's debt to the Paris Club will be reduced from 363 million to 9 million dollars. The agreed minute included a strengthened comparability of treatment clause calling on Malawi to establish a single point of contact for private creditors and provide regular updates to the Paris Club on its progress in obtaining comparable treatment from non-Paris Club creditors. (The US is not a creditor and therefore was an observer to the negotiations.) -------------- NORWEGIAN DEBT FORGIVENESS -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Norway defended its decision to cancel, unilaterally and without conditions, the remaining 78 million dollars in debt incurred by Egypt, Ecuador, Peru, Jamaica, and Sierra Leone as a result of Norway's Ship Export Campaign of 1976-1980. Norway's action has drawn considerable attention in Europe and has been hailed by NGOs as a victory in the campaign to cancel "illegitimate" debt. Norway denies that the debt is illegitimate, but recognizes the Ship Export Campaign as a development policy failure. Some creditors (Germany, Italy, UK, US) supported Norway's contention that unilateral debt forgiveness is not a violation of Paris Club solidarity, since creditors stand to benefit from the debtors' increased payment capacity. Others (Japan, Netherlands) countered that Norway did, in fact, violate solidarity by leaving creditors exposed to increased political pressure to forgive "odious" and "illegitimate" debt. The Paris Club president will communicate informally with the Norwegian authorities to convey the concerns about the concept of illegitimate debt. -------------- SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO -------------- ¶15. (SBU) Several creditors, led by the Netherlands and Germany, objected to the methodology used by Serbia and Montenegro to partition so-called "allocated debt." These creditors argued that the methodology is inconsistent with the 2001 Paris Club agreement with the former Yugoslavia, which defined allocated debt based on the location of the debtor or guarantor. Serbia and Montenegro, on the other hand, have defined allocated debt based on the location of the final beneficiary of the loan. The secretariat will draft a letter to the Serbian and Montenegrin authorities noting creditors' concerns, although it is not clear whether all creditors will insist that the two countries adopt the Paris Club methodology. The letter will also ask the authorities to provide, for each creditor, a loan-by-loan breakdown of the debt to be partitioned. Creditors agreed that bilateral agreements would not be required in those cases where the total debt owed by one of the two countries was less than 1 million IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDR). ¶16. (SBU) Separately, the US delegation met bilaterally with Vesna Dzinic, the head of the Serbian Treasury, to discuss the government's request for debt swaps. The US delivered a letter signed by Treasury Assistant Secretary Lowery and explained that debt swaps were feasible only if a private third party was willing to purchase the debt at USG book value or higher. Dzinic thanked the US for the information and promised to be in touch. She also provided a loan-by-loan breakdown of the allocation of debt between Serbia and Montenegro (and an allocation between Serbia and Kosovo, in the event of independence). She will provide a list of missing loan documents via e-mail. -------------- SEYCHELLES -------------- ¶17. (U) The secretariat will forward to the IMF a letter that it received earlier this month from Danny Faure, the first finance minister to be appointed in the Seychelles in 19 years. In the letter, Minister Faure states that the new government is prepared to make a 4 million euro payment toward its Paris Club arrears and has restarted a dialogue with the IMF. The IMF confirmed that the authorities have begun to implement a package of recently announced reforms. Creditors expressed some optimism that the new government may be more serious about seeking an IMF program, which could lead to an eventual Paris Club treatment. The secretariat will initiate a data call to help determine how to divide up the 4 million euro payment. (The US is not a creditor.) -------------- ZAMBIA -------------- ¶18. (U) The US asked Russia to comment on reports that it had not signed its bilateral agreement with Zambia implementing the May 2005 completion point agreed minute, and that it was continuing to bill for maturities that should have been canceled. Russia replied that it had, in fact, concluded its bilateral agreement with Zambia in December 2005, and that the Zambian authorities are making payments on maturities that were not covered by the Paris Club agreement. (Unlike the US, Russia does not forgive 100 percent of pre-Cologne Summit claims at completion point, although it is in the process of reevaluating this policy.) -------------- FREE-RIDING LENDERS -------------- ¶19. (U) The IMF and World Bank summarized recent work on the debt sustainability framework (DSF) and free rider policy. The Fund will release a new paper on the issue in a couple of weeks. Several creditors (UK, Netherlands, Sweden, Italy, Norway) stressed the importance of this work and encouraged all Paris Club members to broaden awareness of the DSF and to support efforts underway in the OECD Export Credit Group to promote responsible lending. China will participate in a meeting of the Export Credit Group on November 14. The secretariat said the Paris Club president would be willing to participate in future meetings on the topic as a show of support.