PRESERVING LEBANESE PM SINIORA'S GOVERNMENT:

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 006820 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/16/2016 TAGS: FR KDEM PGOV PREL SY SUBJECT: PRESERVING LEBANESE PM SINIORA'S GOVERNMENT: DEMARCHE DELIVERED; FRENCH THINK SYRIANS LACK MEANS TO TOPPLE SINIORA REF: STATE 172274 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Poloff shared reftel points 10/16 with Martin Guillard, the MFA's Office Director equivalent for the Levant (NEA/ELA). Guillard said the French are "absolutely in agreement" on the need to support PM Siniora and to pass a sobering message to Damascus. (He did not indicate whether the French themselves would directly demarche the Syrians along these lines, given France's current policy of minimal substantive contact with Syria.) He noted continuing debate within the EU over whether to send high-level delegations to Damascus, and said France continues to stress to its EU partners that it would not be useful to give the Syrians any "positive signals" at present. ¶2. (C) Guillard added he was "not too pessimistic" about the future of PM Siniora's government both because "Siniora is a big boy who demonstrated this summer that he can manage a crisis" and because Siniora's position is not as fragile as it appears. The Quai assesses that Siniora enjoys substantial popular support and that while Syria may have a direct interest in toppling him, Hizballah does not. This is in part because there is no obvious replacement for Siniora, and in part because Hizballah still needs time to retrench politically and militarily following this summer's combat with Israel. Guillard summed up the Quai's thinking by saying: "Even if Syria is very determined to see Siniora fall, we doubt Syria has the means to topple him because it is not in Hizballah's direct interest to do so." Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm STAPLETON