MFA OFFICIAL SAYS FRANCE WANTS A SYMBOLIC QUARTET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 006275

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/14/2016
TAGS: PREL LE SY IS FR
SUBJECT: MFA OFFICIAL SAYS FRANCE WANTS A SYMBOLIC QUARTET
MEETING


Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In a June 18 meeting, MFA DAS-equivalent
Herve Besancenot (protect throughout) said that President
Chirac's repeated calls for a Quartet meeting on the margins
of the UNGA were meant to provide an alternative to the UNSC
ministerial meeting on the Middle East proposed by the Arab
League. He added that France intended the Quartet meeting to
be a "symbolic gesture" that would produce a general
re-affirmation of roadmap principles without being too
specific. Besancenot assessed that the mutual weakness of
Fatah and Hamas makes a Palestinian national unity government
(NUG) likely despite this weekend's setbacks in internal
Palestinian talks. Displaying some squishiness on the
suspension of international aid to the Palestinian Authority
and the isolation of Hamas, he summed up the difference
between the U.S. and French approaches as: "We're betting on
Hamas' evolution, not its collapse." Besancenot suggested a
piecemeal approach to restoring confidence between Israel and
the Palestinians, as opposed to the sequential process set
forth in the roadmap. He also provided a quick summary of
French thinking on Lebanon. End summary.


Symbolic Quartet Meeting
--------------


2. (C) During a September 18 introductory call by poloff, MFA
DAS-equivalent Herve Besancenot said that President Chirac's
repeated calls for a Quartet meeting on the margins of the UN
General Assembly were intended to provide an alternative to
the UNSC ministerial meeting on the Middle East proposed by
the Arab League. "It's a way of telling the Arab League not
to dream, to be realistic," said Besancenot, who added that
France intended the meeting to be a "symbolic gesture." He
envisioned that the final product of such a meeting would be
a general reaffirmation of the roadmap principles; given the
complexities at the moment, he saw no need to be "too
precise" about next steps. (Comment: The idea that a Quartet
meeting would provide an alternative to the Arab League's
proposed UNSC ministerial may simply have been for USG
consumption. Hitherto, all indications were that France was
amenable to the AL proposal. End comment.)

Douste-Blazy Trip to Ramallah
--------------


3. (C) Turning to the Sept. 14 visit of Foreign Minister
Douste-Blazy to Ramallah, Besancenot noted that Douste-Blazy
cut his trip short after meeting with Palestinian Authority
(PA) President Mahmoud Abbas as his intended Israeli
interlocutors (FM Tzipi Livni, Prime Minister Olmert, Deputy
PM Shmon Peres, and Labour Party leader Amir Peretz) were
unavailable. "Nothing worked," said Besancenot with a shrug.
(Note: FM Douste-Blazy's failure to meet with any Israeli
interlocutor caught the attention of the French press and was
raised at an MFA daily press briefing, which may be why
Besancenot volunteered an explanation. End note.)


4. (C) Douste-Blazy's intent, said Besancenot, was to bolster
Pres. Abbas at a time when "neither the Israeli nor
Palestinian governments have the political courage necessary
to make any courageous initiatives." Besancenot --
acknowledging that the USG has a different perspective --
said the French see an opportunity for progress on the
Israeli-Palestinian track in the wake of the recent conflict
between Israel and Hizballah. "We think the lesson that the
Israeli public drew from the war is that Iran is now their
number one enemy, and to limit Iran's influence it will be
necessary to make some sort of gesture (toward the
Palestinians)," he said. He assessed that the mutual
weakness of Fatah and Hamas makes a Palestinian national
unity government likely, notwithstanding the setbacks in NUG
talks over the weekend. Expounding on Hamas's problems, he
noted the continuing dichotomy between the terrorist group's
Syrian-based leadership and its Gaza rank and file
membership. Khalid Mishal remains ideological and
"disconnected from the local reality" of Gaza, where Hamas
officials take a more realistic line, as evidenced by their
willingness to endorse the Prisoner's Agreement.
Notwithstanding this internal discord, the population
continues to support Hamas and blames the international
community, not the Hamas government, for the economic crisis
occasioned by the end of international assistance to the
Palestinian Authority. Besancenot predicted that "if there
were new elections tomorrow, Hamas would pick up even more
seats" in the Palestinian Legislative Authority.
Consequently, France has decided to bet on Hamas's evolution
rather than its collapse. Assuming that Hamas does join a
NUG and implicitly recognizes Israel, the MFA thinks the
international community will need to "reflect about when to
renew low-level contact with Hamas representatives." He
displayed a similar squishiness on the suspension of
international aid to the Hamas-led government, saying that
"cutting aid only radicalizes the population."

The Quai Spots an Opening
--------------


5. (C) Besancenot credited President Chirac with persuading
President Abbas to travel to New York for the UNGA. He said
that courageous initiatives require strong governments.
Given that President Abbas and PM Olmert are both in
difficult situations, and Washington appears unlikely (from a
French perspective) to press for movement on the
Israeli-Palestinian front at this time, Besancenot opined
that the EU has an unusual degree of latitude at the moment
to encourage the parties to make "partial progress." "We are
not so naive as to expect that we can solve all of the big
problems," said Besancenot, who added that, nevertheless,
France sees an opportunity to help the parties progressively
restore trust. Saying that the chief problem with the
Quartet-endorsed roadmap was its insistence on sequencing, an
insistence that allows Israel to dodge its obligations while
waiting in vain for absolute security, Besancenot advocated
an approach based on piecemeal cooperation on questions of
security, borders, refugees and Jerusalem. Such ad hoc
cooperation could help to restore confidence where previous
efforts focused solely on Palestinian security performance
have failed. "What we don't want is for the Israelis to fall
into the temptation of believing that the status quo can
continue -- that they can manage low-intensity conflicts
indefinitely," he summarized.

Lebanon
--------------


6. (C) Turning to the situation in Lebanon, Besancenot noted
that a recent conference of French ambassadors included much
discussion of the regional consequences of the
Israel-Hizballah conflict. The conference attendees
generally agreed that Israel is not eager for another round
of combat (although none doubted that Israel would respond
given sufficient Hizballah provocation). By the same token,
they assessed that Hizballah has been weakened militarily and
is thus unlikely to re-initiate hostilities in the near
future. The ambassadors opined that Tehran would prolong the
lull both to help defuse internal Lebanese criticism of
Hizballah's recklessness, and to find means of strengthening
Hizballah's battered military structure despite the
international arms embargo. However, there is a strong
possibility of conflict re-emerging in the medium term as the
core disputes remain unresolved. Besancenot therefore
advocated exploiting the momentary calm to push for progress
on the issues of Sheba Farms, the release of prisoners, and
the demarcation of the Syrian-Lebanese border. He noted that
France wants to preserve Lebanese National Assembly Speaker
Nabih Berri as an alternative to Hizballah for Lebanon's
Shia, would like to see the departure of President Lahoud but
believes this must be managed subtly to avoid provoking
violence, and expressed concern about the anti-PM Siniora
machinations of Michel Aoun. With respect to Syria,
Besancenot said that UNIIIC head Serge Brammertz is "our only
strong leverage" and noted that France finds itself very much
in the minority in trying to discourage other EU states from
maintaining high-level contact with Damascus.


Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm
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