MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Russia-Ukraine Energy War

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 000059 SIPDIS DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Russia-Ukraine Energy War Middle East - Iraq's Reconstruction - Syria - Iran International Relations and Multipolarity PARIS - Thursday, January 05, 2006 (A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: Russia-Ukraine Energy War Middle East - Iraq's Reconstruction - Syria - Iran International Relations and Multipolarity B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: President Chirac's New Year's wishes and Sharon's stroke are today's major front-page stories. Le Figaro calls 2006 "a Capital Year" for Chirac while Liberation comments: "Chirac Gets His Inspiration from the Left." The editorial in Le Monde comments on President Chirac's decision to amend the Constitution to include the abolition of the death penalty. It concludes: "France will also show the U.S. that `Old Europe' still possesses a foundation of common values which it is ready to fight for in the name of human rights." Sharon's stroke and subsequent operations is a major subject of conjecture with regard to his newly created party and the March 28 elections. Commentators on the electronic media this morning said "that only a miracle" could bring Sharon back to leading the nation. The Russian energy war elicits reports and an op-ed in Liberation penned by Jacques Amalric: "Europe would be wrong to conclude this was a false alarm. This incident only goes to prove that for Putin, Russia's energy resources are his number one strategic weapon." (See Part C) France Soir interviews Jacques Sapir of the Ecole des Hautes Etudes: "Russia is confirming its role as a major player on the international scene. The leaders of the new independent states thought Europe or the U.S. could replace Russia. This is a blatant sign that they are completely unaware of the western nations' situation and the fact that they are absolutely not in a position to take over." A separate article in France Soir is entitled: "Bush-Putin, the War of the Clones" in which Sacha Balit Vanderbrouk contends that both men used the same means, "money," to influence political and cultural developments in former Soviet nations. "The Belarus elections are scheduled for the near future: these are high-risk elections. The war between the clones is on." On the Middle Eastern front, Le Monde's correspondent reports that "the battle against guerrilla insurgents has eaten up American reconstruction funds;" a meeting between Chirac and Egypt's Mubarak is noted in Le Figaro as one more effort to "contain Syria" and according to Le Figaro, "the talks between Iran and the EU appear stalled because of Iran's intransigence." (See Part C) Le Monde carries an op-ed on the "Emerging Multipolar Game" (See Part C) while left-of-center weekly Le Nouvel Observateur interviews Alexandre Adler on the world in 2020: "America will undoubtedly rally to the idea of multipolarity which it is denouncing today with such vehemence. It will work together with other world nations on a containment strategy for Islamic nations, hitting hard on terrorists and nations that support them." La Croix reports on the Abramoff scandal commenting: "While no political party will come out unscathed from the scandal, it is within the Republican Party that the jitters are most obvious. Abramoff counts among the principal fund raisers of President Bush." Le Figaro carries an op-ed by Pierre Lequiller, a UMP National Assembly Representative who comments on "How to Re-launch a Political Europe." "There must be a Franco-German dynamic which does not create new divisions between the other European countries." (C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: Russia-Ukraine Energy War "The Russian Gas Diplomacy" Jacques Amalric in left-of-center Liberation (01/05): ""Europe would be wrong to conclude this was a false alarm. This incident only goes to prove that for Putin, Russia's energy resources are his number one strategic weapon. This should be enough to lead certain European leaders to wonder about their recent so-called stable `strategic partnerships' with Moscow. A case in point is Germany. The Donald Evans operation is another example of a failed agreement. The myth of an independent Gazprom was shattered during the first days of the Russian-Ukraine confrontation. During every step of the crisis, it was Putin who was on the front lines. The last irony in this high-risk game: Putin will preside the G-8 in July, a summit largely devoted to energy issues." Middle East - Iraq's Reconstruction - Syria - Iran "Anti-Guerrilla Combat Uses Up Reconstruction Funds" Eric Leser in left-of-center Le Monde (01/05): "Between the promises made by the American administration in 2003 for the reconstruction of Iraq and the reality of the situation in 2006 the difference is significant. Because the White House implicitly acknowledged this failure the management of reconstruction efforts was discreetly transferred in mid- December from the Pentagon to the State Department. But the change comes somewhat late, after much of the funds have been spent for more urgent needs such as the recruiting and training of Iraqi security forces. To date, only 20 percent of the 18.4 billion dollars allocated for reconstruction are still available. While on paper the efforts achieved appear to be colossal, in reality, in essential sectors such as electricity and oil, progress is practically inexistent. Generalized corruption also explains the lack of progress, as demonstrated by the investigations into fraud made on behalf of Stuart Bowen, the Inspector General." "Talks With Iran Suspended" Right-of-center Le Figaro (01/05): "The talks between Iran and Europe appear to be condemned to failure. Despite the announcement that the talks would resume January 18, pessimism went up a notch after the latest sign of intransigence from Tehran's leaders. The man in charge of Iran's nuclear dossier, Ali Alrijani stated that Iran's decision to go back to sensitive activities `was non-negotiable.' His determination was confirmed by the Iranian President who excluded `the possibility of going back.' In a televised address, he used a caustic tone as he anticipated the West's objections. This unilateral position has been deemed unacceptable by the EU. Moreover, European intelligence is more than ever convinced that Iran has acquired the necessary technology to build nuclear missile heads." "Chirac, Mubarak and the Saudis on the Syrian Issue" Pierre Prier in right-of-center Le Figaro (01/05): "The number one goal of the diplomatic maneuvers between Chirac and Mubarak yesterday was to defuse the Syrian crisis. Arriving from Saudi Arabia, Mubarak brought with him the fruits of his Saudi talks almost entirely devoted to Syria. even if Iraq and the Palestinian Territories were also discussed. The aim of the three countries is to bring Damascus back to a less intransigent stance. For Chirac, `Syria must respond to the UN's demands.' The UN wants to question Bachar, but the Syrian President is opposed to such a breach of his sovereignty. Diplomatic sources indicate that neither Chirac, Mubarak nor the Saudis expect Bachar to actually participate in an official interrogation. But the three hope Syria `will adopt a different attitude.' Damascus has indicated that it could possibly accept the interrogation of its Foreign Affairs Minister. A sign that Damascus may be beginning to listen. As in the case of the Lockerbie bombing, if a Syrian high official is handed over, observers indicate this would mean the regime acknowledges some of the responsibility. For the time being France Egypt and Saudi Arabia want simply to avoid a dangerous escalation: the two Arab nations fear Syria falling further into Iran's orbit. Because Lebanon remains the key, France, Egypt and Saudi Arabia may offer Syria a form of normalized relations with Lebanon: `but it is too early to say if we are on the right path,' says a diplomat." International Relations and Multipolarity "How to Manage an Emerging Multipolar Game" Daniel Vernet in left-of-center Le Monde (01/05): "With the benefit of hindsight, President Bush may return to a system of balance of power. Europe is trying to find its place in this emerging multipolar game, thereby satisfying the hopes of French diplomacy without actually providing a recipe for stability. In Iran, the Europeans can continue to play a major role in as far as the Americans do not have another policy to offer. The Iraqi adventure is probably urging the Americans to play it safe. The other lesson from Iraq is that the `hyperpower' is faced with its military limitations when its presence in the Middle East continues to be needed." HOFMANN