MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Iran Lebanon - UNIFIL - EU-25

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 005625 SIPDIS DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Iran Lebanon - UNIFIL - EU-25 Conference in Brussels President Bush's Press Conference PARIS - Wednesday, August 23, 2006 (A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: Iran Lebanon - UNIFIL - EU-25 Conference in Brussels President Bush's Press Conference B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: Iran and its arm wrestling match with the international community have replaced the Israeli-Lebanese conflict as today's lead international story, even if, as headlined in Le Figaro, both are closely related: "Tensions in the Middle East Allow Iran to Play for Time." The editorial which is entitled "Iran Strengthened by the War in Lebanon" reiterates the opinion that "Hezbollah's resistance to the Israelis is a considerable victory, especially in the eyes of the Arab streets" and concludes that "a deployment of forces in Southern Lebanon cannot be considered without keeping in mind a possible military confrontation between Washington and Iran." (See Part C) Le Monde analyzes the positioning of Iran in "The Middle East Game" and warns against "the West giving in to the weakness of global negotiations with Iran without sanction." (See Part C) Le Figaro carries an op-ed by former French Ambassador and Foreign Minister Jean-Bernard Raimond on the "war in Lebanon and the lessons which should have been learned from the Balkans" before committing to an international force. Raimond contends that the situation in Lebanon is so dire, "that it is surprising the international community gave up so quickly on the idea of a 'force of imposition' instead of a 'peace-keeping force." Raimond also warns that "the fact that the U.S. and Great Britain will not participate in the force, because they are over-stretched in Iraq, should lead others to extreme caution... The crisis in the Middle East stands as an example of the world situation since the war in Iraq: international disorder, absence of Europe and a difficult euro-Atlantic cooperation." La Croix interviews Dominique Moisi of IFRI, on the question of sanctions: "Conditions have never been better for the likelihood of obtaining sanctions at the UNSC... But sanctions are rarely effective. Embargoes have always been by-passed. I believe sanctions are useful on a psychological level; they are the ultimate warning before reverting to the use of force. They play a symbolic role to show our disagreement with an autistic country. We cannot exclude the possibility of a military intervention: what we have here is a calendar for escalation... A country to whom you suggest compromises scorns you." The negotiations in view of defining the UNIFIL's mission and composition are today's second lead international story. For Le Figaro, "the EU is under pressure," while in Lebanon "Hezbollah continues its propaganda." (See Part C) FR2 showed Ambassador Bolton when he said: "Hezbollah must not be a state within a state anymore. We have to disarm it soon." Also on FR2, FM Douste-Blazy gave his views: "France was the first country to send soldiers to Lebanon... while the U.S. chose not to. But France wants more details on the UNIFIL's mission... Ultimately, the decision to send a larger contingent remains in the President's hands..." La Croix and economic dailies devote their lead to France's economic growth thanks to renewed investments, according to La Tribune. As for Les Echos, employment is up in major French groups, in France and abroad. All reports indicate that PM Villepin is "ready to take advantage" of this upswing during this fall's traditional rentree. (C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: Iran "Iran Strengthened by Lebanese War" Pierre Rousselin in right-of-center Le Figaro 908/23): "Iran, which is finding itself in a position of strength after the war in Lebanon, remains as intransigent as ever on its nuclear program... The UN's sanctions, if they are implemented, will have limited impact considering Russia and China's reticence... And so the saga of Iran's nuclear crisis resumes just about where it had left off before the summer. For 34 days, Iran and Washington battled each other in the Lebanese war, through their respective allies, Israel and Hezbollah... With no real victor, each adversary is reading the outcome in a different light, with grave consequences for their future confrontation... Washington hoped Israel would neutralize Hezbollah, thus depriving Tehran of a means to respond to a military action on Iran's nuclear installations... Washington's desire to neutralize Hezbollah remains unchanged. For Iran, Hezbollah's resistance to the Israelis is a considerable victory, especially in the eyes of the Arab streets... This, in addition to a Shiite regime in Iraq and Hamas's victory in Palestine reinforces Iran's strategic position... The Lebanese war has not altered the parameters of the Iranian nuclear crisis. But it has upset the psychological context. Mostly it has turned a diplomatic exercise into an explosive situation: a deployment of forces in Southern Lebanon cannot be considered without keeping in mind a possible military confrontation between Washington and Iran." "Iran Is Playing For Time" Delphine Minoui in right-of-center Le Figaro (08/23): "After much dilly-dallying Iran's answer was neither yes nor no, which, according to Iran's atomic energy organization Vice President, represents 'an exceptional opportunity' to resume the negotiations... even if the Iranians are once again sidestepping the preamble of suspending its nuclear enrichment program... The Iranians have once again answered Iranian-style: in other words with numerous detours." "Iran's Blackmail and the West's Dilemma" Alain Barluet in right-of-center Le Figaro (08/23): "The turn of events in the Israeli-Lebanese conflict... has reinforced Iran's determination, emphasizing the international community's impotence in dealing with Iran. Hezbollah's resistance against Israel has handed Iran a position of strength... and given Tehran the lead on defining the calendar... With the Lebanese crisis ending to their advantage, the Iranians feel secure enough to bring about a negotiation on the preamble of the negotiations. In essence they want to convince the West that their program is not a military program as they play for time. With the tense situation in the Middle East, Iran's wager does not alleviate the West's dilemma. Washington has predicted sanctions in the event of an unacceptable Iranian answer. And so the question is whether the West, and the U.S. in particular, can, despite everything, accept a global dialogue with Iran. This is something Tehran believes it can achieve, thanks to the post-Lebanese war situation." "Iran in the Center of the Middle Eastern Game" Daniel Vernet in left-of-center Le Monde (08/23): "The grand bartering suggested by Albright and Vedrine, among others, that should be undertaken between the U.S. and Iran, to give Iran the recognition it wanted... and keep the U.S. from having to choose between bombing Iran or having to live with Iran's bomb was not adopted despite the fact that the dilemma is devastating for international relations... President Bush did not adopt this view because it was akin to underwriting the Mullahs' regime... Now Iran feels it is in a position of power, after the outcome of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah and will offer to 'renegotiate the conditions of the negotiations... When FM Douste-Blazy, in the midst of that conflict, spoke of Iran's 'stabilizing role' he was only stating a fact, albeit somewhat clumsily...The West cannot ignore Tehran's role in Iraq, Afghanistan, and in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: "In the Arab streets, Ahmadinejad, is the man who wants to destroy Israel and is standing up to the Americans... France needs to turn towards Tehran to ensure its troops safety if they are to go to Lebanon... What will Iran do with its strategic positioning? Play the role of acceptable interlocutor or use its nuisance potential to the hilt? The West must be careful not to give in to its weakness and accept Iran's global dialogue instead of first imposing sanctions." Lebanon - UNIFIL - EU-25 Conference in Brussels "The EU Under Pressure" Alexandrine Bouilhet in right-of-center Le Figaro (08/23): "This afternoon the EU-25 will meet for the first time since the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon and on Friday, FMs will meet further to Italy's request, to define the UNIFIL's mission. In Brussels all eyes are on France which has disappointed its European partners... Some, like Spain, Italy and Greece, committed in the Middle East, want answers... Criticized for its lack of clarity, France's diplomacy has responded that it is waiting for more precise rules of engagement. Meanwhile Italy is occupying the front of the stage, while backstage diplomats say they are witnessing a cock fight between France and Italy. And experts contend that considering the context, the UNIFIL will comprise no more than 8,000 men, as opposed to the anticipated 15,000." "From Paris to the UN: The Diplomatic Battle" Philippe Bolopion and Nathalie Nougayrede in left-of-center Le Monde (08/23): "On July 31, the real tug of war between France and the US began at the UN. Repeatedly France was behind the cancellation of meetings intended to determine the countries that would contribute troops [to the UNIFIL]. On August 2, a Franco-American rapprochement became apparent with the two draft resolutions... But Washington is playing on words, on the face of it in order to buy time for Israel... On August 12, an agreement is reached on Resolution 1701... But on August 16, the esteem that France had for its role in contributing to finding a solution to the crisis is shattered with the announcement that it will only provide a minimal- contribution of troops to the UNIFIL." "The Illusions of World Diplomacy" Bertrand Badie, professor at the Intitut d'Etutes Politiques in Catholic La Croix (08/23): "In the Israeli-Lebanese conflict, diplomacy was the victim... And mostly it was the victim of its own illusions: An illusion of temporality, in the first place, as if time always worked for the good... An illusion of power, as if he who is the mightiest is necessarily the victor... Hezbollah does not obey the rationality of states known in our chanceries... It is time we learned that international relations are the projection of human suffering and not the strategic universe of diplomats or soldiers. And because Hezbollah and Hamas have understood this better than anyone, they have gained stronger positions which we should not ignore." President Bush's Press Conference "President Bush Faithful to His Divine Mission" Philippe Grangereau in left-of-center Liberation (08/23): "Lebanon, Iraq, Iran: despite his failures on the ground, President Bush's foreign policy for the Middle East and 'the advancement of liberty' has barely changed... During his press conference President Bush had to face a barrage of questions about disengaging from Iraq, his showcase for 'his strategy of freedom.' His answer, 'not until the job is done,' was given with some irritation... In Lebanon, Washington's strategy, adopted by several European countries, has not succeeded. That of given Israel enough time to eradicate Hezbollah before getting the UN involved... According to Philip Gordon, some changes have been made: neo-cons such as Wolfowitz and Bolton were kept away from key posts and replaced with 'professional' diplomats... Still President Bush's doctrine of a world divided between 'them and us' continues to prevail, especially in Iraq, the pivot of Bush's policy for the Middle East. And this despite the U.S. media's latest itemization of all that has gone bad in Iraq. Few Americans today appear convinced that the occupation of Iraq has lowered the terrorist threat. And the sad reality, as the NYT said, is that 'the White House has reinforced Iran and Hezbollah while it has undermined Israel.'" HOFMANN