AFTERMATH OF MARCH 28 PROTESTS: PRESSURE TO DEFUSE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002048 SIPDIS DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, AND EB DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV CASC EU FR PINR SOCI ECON SUBJECT: AFTERMATH OF MARCH 28 PROTESTS: PRESSURE TO DEFUSE THE SOCIAL CONFLICT MOUNTS, PUTTING KEY POLITICAL ACTORS IN INCREASING QUANDARY REF: A. (A) EMBASSY PARIS SIPRNET DAILY REPORT FOR MARCH 29 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. (B) PARIS 2006 AND PREVIOUS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED -- HANDLE ACCORDINGLY SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Following March 28's sizable demonstrations against the Villepin government's First Employment Contract (CPE) (refs A and B),there is a growing sense among both the French public and political class that leadership on both sides of the issue should find a way to defuse the burgeoning social and political confrontation that has coalesced around this youth employment scheme. The weeks of demonstrations and protests -- and the turmoil and tension generated by them -- are acting as a vortex pulling in nearly every significant social and political division on the French political scene, and starkly sharpening those divisions. There is no way to predict how the immediate "crisis over the CPE" will be resolved, but at this juncture most of those leading confrontation over the issue are hoping for a Constitutional Council decision to send the law back to the legislature and provide President Chirac and the government with a face-saving way out of the current impasse. Otherwise Chirac himself may have to step in, and take a stand aimed at getting the issue off the street and back into the political process. The rhetoric of the principal political actors remains that of sticking to their guns, but the supplemental signals they are sending, amidst growing public apprehension that the social confrontation could spin out of control, are aimed at finding a way out. France's five major trade union federations "solemnly" called on President Chirac to "intervene," and a large majority of the ruling Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) members of parliament openly supported Interior Minister Sarkozy's compromise proposal calling for a delay in promulgation of the CPE law. END SUMMARY. PUBLIC UNHAPPY WITH DIRECTION OF EVENTS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) According to most recent polls 83 percent of the French want President Chirac to step in, take charge of events, and defuse the social conflict that the extensive participation in protests March 28 (ref A) clearly showed could well keep growing and, possibly, spin out of control. The public's deep dissatisfaction with Chirac is palpable -- and has been building for a very long time -- but even so, ordinary people still look to the president to make the big decision to keep the ascendant turmoil and tension of increasing protests from snowballing into a major, social crisis. Chirac is in a particularly uncomfortable quandary. He can repudiate the prime minister whom he had hoped would bring some luster to the record of his last years in office, or support him into a deepening confrontation that protest leaders have vowed to continue if the government does not cede. Even as they "solemnly" asked for Chirac's "intervention" in defusing the crisis, France's five major trade union federations also announced a new day of protests and strike actions for April 4. Should the Constitutional Council sustain the constitutionality of the CPE law (a decision is expected March 30),then Chirac could exercise a presidential prerogative for sending laws back to legislature for a second look (ref A),effectively getting the issue off the streets and back into the political process -- which is what most French people want. HIGHLIGHTNG FRANCE'S GROWING "SOCIAL FRACTURE" -------------- - ¶3. (SBU) Much of the public also sympathizes with the underlying motives of the demonstrators. Chirac and the political class have already ignored once -- last May at the time of the referendum on a proposed constitution for the EU -- widespread fears about France's fading promise of prosperity for middle-class and working people. The current disagreement over the CPE reflects the deep split in French society, in ideological outlook and financial prospects, between those -- in the words of social critic Alain Minc -- who feel they have more opportunity in the world of globalization, and those who feel they have less. Yesterday's respectable turn-out of students, unionized workers and their supporters and families clearly evidenced how strong the demand for continued "social protection" -- and the refusal of structural, economically liberalizing reform -- remains among many in France's middle and working classes. Those who favor Villepin's "liberal" reform -- allowing employers to fire at will within a two year period first-time employees under 26 -- clearly fall on that side of the social divide where people are more ready to let go of France's "social model," and accept an economic dimension of life that is more individualistic, competitive, and exposed to uncertainty. HIGHLIGHING THE SPLIT ON THE CENTER-RIGHT -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The struggle over the CPE has also thrown into stark relief the divisions in the ruling, majority party. Even though "a majority of our electorate" in the words of a key UMP strategist and Sarkozy advisor, "support the CPE and what it stands for, we also know that ongoing confrontations risk turning very sour for the person in charge of the police" (UMP President and Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy). In a meeting with UMP parliamentarians on March 28, Sarkozy proposed the "non-application" of the CPE law in an effort to lower the tensions in the streets while changes to the law are negotiated with "the social partners" -- student associations and organized labor. Sarkozy,s compromise solution, which would delay implementation of the CPE law without withdrawing it outright, is supported "all but about 50 or 60" of the UMP's 360 or so members of the National Assembly. (Note: Assuming the Constitutional Council rules in favor of the CPE law, then President Chirac will have nine days to promulgate it. Sarkozy,s compromise solution assumes that Chirac will use that nine day period to commence serious negotiations with "the social partners." End note.) Villepin and his supporters would have President Chirac promulgate the CPE law as soon as the Constitutional Council might approve it. In their view, Villepin's insistence on "realism and activist reform without delay" is justified. Those who support the prime minister like to point out that 25 percent of France's youth between 16 and 25 who are actively looking for a job (this is, are not students) can't find one, and that therefore the minor, belated action of the CPE reform is very much in order. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (SBU) There is no way to predict how the immediate "crisis over the CPE" will be resolved. Those who worry that that the risks of continuing confrontation have exceeded the consequence of the immediate issue at stake are hoping for a Constitutional Council decision to send the law back to the legislature and provide President Chirac and the government with a face-saving way out of the current impasse. Otherwise, Chirac will have to step in and take a stand aimed at dampening the discontent. Both the Socialist Party (PS) and the centrist Union for French Democracy (UDF) are insistently calling for the government to back down and withdraw the CPE law. The underlying causes of the disagreement over the CPE reform, specifically, its free-market orientation and its undermining of social protections -- will remain. This underlying battle over "the French social model" -- its adaptability to the world of globalization -- will also remain as the underlying issue of the 2007 presidential election, still over a year away. End Comment. Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm Stapleton