FRANCE BRACES FOR ANOTHER DAY OF PROTESTS, AS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001967 SIPDIS DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, AND EB DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON SUBJECT: FRANCE BRACES FOR ANOTHER DAY OF PROTESTS, AS SPECTRE OF UNDERCLASS VIOLENCE FUSING WITH LEFT/RIGHT SOCIAL PROTEST GROWS REF: A. (A) EMABSSY PARIS DAILY REPORT FOR MARCH 27 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. (B) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY REPORT FOR MARCH 24 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED -- HANDLE ACCORDINGLY SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The weeks of protest (ref A) against the Villepin government's First Employment Contract (CPE) could well peak tomorrow, March 28. Leftist student associations, backed by the full organizational weight of France's major trade union federations and the center left Socialist Party (PS),have called for a day of strikes and protests to force the government of Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin to withdraw its controversial CPE labor reform law. As the protest movement has gathered momentum over past weeks, relatively peaceful student marches have been infiltrated by gangs of youths from France's poor immigrant suburbs -- the same violent and futureless underclass youths responsible for the weeks of car burnings and other civil unrest that beset France last Fall. All implicated in tomorrow's protests -- from protest leaders and ordinary anti-CPE students to government ministers and crowd control police -- are tensely watchful, fearful that the marches tomorrow will also draw crowds of suburban hooligans, possibly sparking underclass violence with repercussions that go well beyond the left/right, ideological confrontation over Villepin's relatively minor labor reform. END SUMMARY. DAY OF STUDENT, AND UNION AND OPPOSITION SUPPORTED, PROTESTS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Socialist Party (PS) firebrand (and one of the leaders of the left's campaign against the EU Constitution last fall) Jean-Luc Melanchon predicted that one and one-half million demonstrators would take to the streets tomorrow, and promised that "things will be different after that" in the attitude of the center-right government towards an energized and seemingly more united leftist opposition. (Comment: It remains to be seen how many bona-fide demonstrators will in fact show up for March 28's nationwide demonstrations. On the one hand, France's five major trade union federations, along with the center-left PS, have put their full organizational weight behind the protests, which should boost the number of participants. On the other hand, the growing threat of violence from gangs of suburban youths joining the marches is reported to be turning away many students, who would otherwise participate. On March 18, the most recent day of nationwide moblilization against the CPE, about 500,000 participated. End Comment.) Marches and rallies have been called for all of France's major cities and university towns. In addition, officials predict tomorrow,s strike will seriously hamper rail and air travel throughout the country. In Paris, only half the metro and commuter trains are expected to run, while the state-owned SNCF railroad company suggests that two-thirds of trains will operate nationwide. Most of Air France,s unions will also take part in the strike, likely resulting in multiple flight cancellations. Teachers, public sector workers and retirees are also expected to participate. GROWING SPECTRE OF UNDERCLASS INFILTRATION AND VIOLENCE -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The inflitration of student and other social protests by groups of young hooligans from the poor, predominantly immigrant suburbs that ring France's cities, is not something new. Disturbances of this kind, particularly the mugging of peaceful demonstrators on the margins of protest activities, have been known to police since the late 1980s. The protests of 2004 against the education reforms proposed by then-education minister Francois Fillon saw a marked spike in this activity. However, nothing quite on the scale of the hooligan violence of March 23 around the Esplanade of the Invalides in Paris had been seen before (ref B). ¶4. (SBU) Two major suburban train lines connect at the Invalides subway stop. On the afternoon of Thursday, March 23, students gathered for a demonstration targeted at the nearby education ministry found themselves fleeing pell-mell as they were assaulted and robbed by hundreds of hooligans who had been trickling out of the train station for most of the day. Afterwards, these hooligans (or "casseurs" as they known in French) burned a number of cars and looted shops and restaurants along two side streets. All concerned -- from protest leaders and ordinary anti-CPE students to government ministers and crowd control police -- are tensely watchful, fearful that the marches tomorrow will draw crowds of these suburban hooligans. Police have been ordered by Interior Minister Sarkozy to indentify likely hooligans and arrest them pre-emptively. ¶5. (SBU) A confrontation with police that is sensed as overly-violent and motivated by racial prejudice could spark a new round of violence in France's suburbs -- a developement with repercussions that go well beyond the ideological and political confrontation over Villepin's relatively minor labor reform. Francois Chereque, head of the moderate CFDT trade union federation, publicly acknowledged the danger of hooligan incited violence during tomorrow's protests as he told the press and public following a failed compromise meeting with the Prime Minister on March 24 that "we will do everything we can to maintain order" during the protests planned for March 28. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) It remains to be seen whether or not this feared "fusion" -- the discontent among poor immigrant youth that fueled last Fall's weeks of car burnings and defiance of police "piggybacking" onto the garden variety left/right standoff over social reform -- will or will not significantly mark the strike and protest activities of March 28. The most dire media and pundit commentatary excoriates both opposition and government for instransigence -- accusing them of consciously using the possiblity of this underclass violence to raise the stakes against each other. The unions and the opposition Socialist Party, who seized on and abetted student opposition to the CPE to make it a rallying, showdown issue for a tentative and divided left, risk being discredited by an outbreak of violence, should the public blame them for irresponsibly pressing their advantage against the government. Villepin and the center-right government, who have tried to defy opposition demands to withdraw the CPE (under the pressure of the "blackmail" of this threat of violence, according to some government supporters),also risk having their intransigence blamed, should tomorrow's strike lead to wider unrest. Both sides however, seem willing to bet that the most damage will be done to the other side in the event that this redoubtable, but worst-case scenario, ensues. END COMMENT. Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm Stapleton